Brewers vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Yelich Revival Helps Fuel Brew Crew

The Milwaukee Brewers struck first in their three-game interleague series against the Boston Red Sox. The Brewers were the underdog but came through, winning 4-1 at Fenway on Friday. 

The two are back at it on Saturday for a late afternoon game. The Red Sox have gone 2-8 in their last 10 games, sliding down the American League East standings to last place. 

Can the Brewers make it two in a row or will the Red Sox even things up at home? Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Brewers vs Red Sox on July 30. 

Brewers vs Red Sox odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Despite winning the first game, the Brewers are not the favorites for Saturday. Boston opened at -120 and has slipped to as low as -110. Milwaukee has stayed steady at +100. The total hasn’t budged from 10, with the Over at -105 and the Under at -115. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Brewers vs Red Sox predictions

• Prediction: Brewers ML (+100)
• Prediction: Over 10 (-105)
• Best bet: Yelich Over 1.5 bases (+125)

Picks made on 7/30/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Brewers vs Red Sox game info

• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Saturday, July 30, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, NESN

Brewers vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Eric Lauer (6-3, 3.84 ERA): Lauer hasn’t had a decision since June 22, but in the five games since then, he has put his team in position to win three of them. The left-hander has allowed 12 runs in those games and, ironically, the Brewers won the two games where he gave up the most runs.

In his last outing, he allowed four runs on six hits, the most of any of the five games, but the Brewers won 10-9. The 27-year-old’s ERA for the month is 3.22, much better than in June, when it was 6.83. 

Nick Pivetta (8-7, 4.35 ERA): It has been a brutal July for Pivetta. The 29-year-old has had four starts and has two losses and two no-decisions. His ERA for the month is 9.95 and in three of his four starts this month he has allowed six or more runs.

His last outing against Cleveland was his best in July, where he allowed just one run on seven hits and went 5.2 innings. Pivetta faced the Brewers before as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies in 2017 and gave up nine runs on seven hits in five innings. 

Weather

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

The Red Sox starting pitchers have not had a win the entire month of July. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Red Sox

Brewers vs Red Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Boston Red Sox are in last place in the American League East. The Milwaukee Brewers are in first place in the National League Central. Yet, you would think it was the other way around the way thesportsbooks are fawning all over Boston. 

The Red Sox are favored in Saturday’s afternoon game in this interleague series, sending out Nick Pivetta to try and get the team to .500. Only problem is, Pivetta has not been terribly effective. Like the other Boston starters, he has not won a game in July, as his ERA has gone from 3.23 at the end of June to 4.35, sitting at 9.95 for the month of July. 

The last start Pivetta had, however, he only allowed one run and Manager Alex Cora said he found his performance encouraging. 

“He was better,” Cora said. “Velocity was up, I think the curveball was good today, his slider was OK, but a lot better, better rhythm. I think the fastball, when he used it, was obviously at 94-95 (mph), but he went through some good spots and gave us a chance to win.”

The Red Sox did win, one of only two victories in their last 10 games. Cora isn’t ready to throw his starting pitchers under the bus, despite the fact none of them have a victory in July. Instead, he was critical of the team’s offense, which has failed to score runs like they did earlier in the season. 

Boston has the fifth-highest batting average in the majors, but is 11th in runs scored and 12th in RBI. The Sox have also been leaving runners on base at an alarming rate. In Friday’s 4-1 loss to the Brewers, they were 1-6 with runners in scoring position. 

The Brewers have thrived in interleague play this season. They’re 10-3 overall and 4-0 against teams in the AL East. 

They should be able to get to Pivetta. Milwaukee is 5-0 in its last five against right-handed starters and 5-1 in its last six interleague games against a right-handed starter.

Eric Lauer is starting for the Brewers and has been putting his team in a position to win despite not having a decision in July. Other than his last outing, where he went 4.1 innings but the team still won, the lefty has pitched five or more innings in his three other games for July. In those games, he allowed a total of four runs. 

That’s allowed Milwaukee the chance to win games with their offense. They’re sixth in the majors in runs, fifth in RBI, fourth in homers, and 10th in on-base percentage. 

Prediction: Brewers moneyline (+100 at BetRivers)

Over/Under analysis

The Brewers like to score runs and the Red Sox are prone to giving them up. Boston is 24th in runs allowed in the majors with 431. They’re 21st in hits allowed and their team ERA of 4.34 is 24th. 

The Brewers are 4-1 in their last five games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, and are 5-2 in their last seven road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. 

Other trends favor the Over as well, as it’s 5-0-1 in Boston’s last six interleague home games against a team with a winning record, and also 4-1 in the Red Sox’s last five games against a left-handed starter. 

The Over is 6-1 in Milwaukee’s last seven games and 6-0 in its last six against a right-handed starter. 

Pivetta has an ERA of 9.95 in July, so he might be able to hit the Over of 10 by himself. He should get some help, however, from Milwaukee’s starter Eric Lauer. 

The relief pitching for both teams is suspect, especially the Red Sox bullpen, which has allowed 218 of the team’s 431 runs 

Don’t let the total of 10 scare you off from the Over. This game should provide a lot of offense.

Prediction: Over 10 (-105 at BetMGM)

Best bet

Milwaukee left fielder Christian Yelich had been unhappy with his recent performance at the plate, but two changes have helped him immensely. 

The first was being moved to the lead-off spot a month ago. Since Craig Counsell put him there, he’s hitting .296 with three home runs, 14 RBI, and an on-base percentage of more than .400. Before the adjustment, he was hitting .228 and had a slugging percentage of .351. 

The other adjustment was three games ago, employing a toe tap when he got in the batter’s box to help his rhythm. The results have been positive. In those three games, Yelich has seen an increase in production. 

In Friday’s victory against the Red Sox, Yelich had a double and a single. Two game before, he had two doubles. 

Yelich has been pleased with the results:

“I feel it is one thing I will persist with,” Yelich told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. “It has been a bit extra comfy than I used to be in all probability anticipating, as a result of if you change your total timing mechanism, your pitch recognition and all of that stuff is usually a little robust. However, I’ve truly felt fairly good with it. Higher than I assumed.”

His success at the plate should continue and he gets a pitcher that is struggling as of late. I like Yelich to get at least two total bases Saturday. 

Christian Yelich prop pick: Over 1.5 Total bases (+115)

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