The season couldn’t be off to a worse start for the Cardinals, who have struggled in the pitching department and enter tonight with just a 2-4 record. The story couldn’t be any different for the Brewers, who are already 5-1 on the year.
Can St. Louis bounce back against their division rivals? Let’s break it all down in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Brewers on April 7.
Cardinals vs Brewers odds
Cardinals vs Brewers predictions
Let’s briefly talk about the expected ERA stat over at Baseball Savant. The data provided to us from Statcast is incredibly valuable to day-to-day handicapping, but it’s very important to understand how it works in order to use it best.
Jack Flaherty’s season-opening line is a perfect example. Many will see his 4.31 xERA next to his scoreless line and think he was lucky to escape unscathed.
Now, those people are technically right about the luck part, but those assuming that the Blue Jays knocked him around would be wrong. He limited Toronto to a .111 expected batting average with a 20% hard-hit rate, and he didn’t surrender a barrel the whole time.
The issue with Flaherty was his seven walks, and that’s why the output on his expected ERA is that high. Of course, he did have a 13.2% walk rate in 2022, but that was in just a handful of starts. For his career, the right-hander is right around the league average when it comes to walk rate.
Don’t just automatically assume Flaherty is going to struggle here. We know the 27-year-old has incredible talent and has impressed at this level. While Milwaukee boasts the second-highest walk rate in the game, it has lacked in the power department and that should be further honed in here by Flaherty.
On the other side of this matchup, Brandon Woodruff allowed just two runs in three starts against St. Louis last year and can be trusted here against a lethal Cardinals offense.
My best bet: Under 8.5 (-110 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Cardinals vs Brewers moneyline analysis
I kind of love taking a bite out of the Cardinals here at plus money. It’s only a matter of time before they get going, and it’s kind of crazy to think they have a 137 wRC+ and just two wins to show for through a week of play.
I’ve covered how I think Flaherty will rebound here and bring his walk rate and expected ERA back to earth. I also love these left-handed bats that the Cardinals will supply, with the likes of Nolan Gorman, Tommy Edman, and Dylan Carlson featured throughout their lineup. Alec Burleson has even looked like a competent bat, hitting .313 at the top of the order.
The Cardinals are also ninth in bullpen ERA to this point and can go toe-to-toe with a Brewers team that is throwing out a slightly better starter. Though Milwaukee’s sporting a 1.33 ERA thus far, its 4.88 xFIP is nothing compared to St. Louis’ 3.04 xFIP.
The script will flip, and it might begin tonight.
Cardinals vs Brewers Over/Under analysis
Woodruff was ridiculous against the Cardinals last year. He finished with a 1.20 ERA in 15 innings, allowing just two earned runs on 11 hits with 16 strikeouts in the three outings.
He’s also off to a great start in 2023. The right-hander made it through his first outing against the Cubs with just one run on three hits and a walk over six frames. He struck out eight, and his impressive punchout rates will need to come into play tonight if Milwaukee wants to neutralize an impressive St. Louis lineup.
Cardinals vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Friday, April 7, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSMW, BSWI |
Cardinals vs Brewers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jack Flaherty (1-0, 0.00 ERA): The righty is now 27 and has dealt with many injuries over the years, limiting him to just 41 innings since the fall of 2021. The former first-round pick had a terrible spring with a 6.41 ERA in 19 2/3 innings, but he walked just seven, which is further evidence that free passes won't be an issue for him this season.
Brandon Woodruff (0-0, 1.50 ERA): While he didn’t earn any Cy Young votes last year, Woodruff was damn good over the course of 153 1/3 innings. The right-hander boasted a 3.05 ERA with an improved 30.6% strikeout rate, and his 3.15 xERA only solidified what we saw on the field.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Woodruff’s last four starts with five days of rest. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Brewers
