The third and final installment of this NL Central series is set to get underway on Sunday afternoon with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the St. Louis Cardinals.
Looking to cap off their dominant homestand, Milwaukee is priced as a -140 betting favorite.
Will the Brewers take care of business on their home diamond, or can the Cardinals pull off the upset on the road? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Brewers below.
Cardinals vs Brewers odds
Cardinals vs Brewers predictions
Taking the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers in this contest is right-hander Freddy Peralta. Rounding out the core of Milwaukee’s rotation, Peralta is perhaps one of the most underrated starting pitchers in the National League.
While he battled injuries throughout the majority of last season, Peralta looks to start the year in good form now that he's fully healthy once again. He did just that in his first start of 2023, tossing six shutout innings and allowing just two hits while racking up seven strikeouts.
Despite dealing with those aforementioned injuries, 2022 marked the fifth straight season that he posted a K% north of 27%, which speaks to his incredible ability to retire hitters via the punchout. Those five seasons make up the entirety of his MLB career thus far, and we're going to back this consistent ability to rack up strikeouts.
At DraftKings, Peralta’s strikeout prop can be found as low as 5.5, and we are going to take the Over. Across 100 career plate appearances against Peralta, this current St. Louis Cardinals roster possesses a troubling 30 K% and 28.3 Whiff%. Although St. Louis’ lineup is obviously stacked from top to bottom, it still features multiple guys who are especially vulnerable to the strikeout.
In 2022, Willson Contreras and Tyler O’Neill posted a K% north of 21%. Meanwhile, rookie Nolan Gorman possesses a 28 K% this year. It makes sense why Peralta’s strikeout prop is set low in this contest, especially considering the Cardinals’ stellar lineup that typically avoids striking out.
However, the total at 5.5 is an over-adjustment to that fact. Not only does this current St. Louis lineup possess a lifetime 30 K% against Peralta, but the right-hander went over this number quite consistently in 2022 before his nagging injuries plagued the final two months of his season.
My best bet: Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 strikeouts (-150)
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Cardinals vs Brewers moneyline analysis
I would lean towards the Brewers moneyline in this contest, but would rather just back Peralta than mix Milwaukee’s untrustworthy lineup into the equation. The Brewers’ biggest edge in this contest is the starting pitching, which is the only reason they're favored in this contest.
On the other side, right-hander Jake Woodford is slated to take the mound for the Cardinals. Woodford got shelled by the Braves in his first start this season, allowing six runs on seven hits through just 4 1/3 innings pitched.
His underlying metrics in that matchup were just as poor, producing a .481 xwOBA, .307 xBA, and .768 xSLG, which is concerning moving forward. However, Milwaukee possesses a young and inconsistent lineup that's inferior in this matchup, which is why I am staying away from its moneyline.
Cardinals vs Brewers Over/Under analysis
I would also lean towards the Under in this contest but do not feel confident one way or the other. On the one hand, I firmly trust Peralta to take care of business.
In 2022, the right-hander ranked in the 90th percentile or higher in HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel%. Not only are those utterly dominating metrics, but it's even more impressive considering the nagging injuries during the final two months of the campaign.
With that said, Peralta is going against a more-than-competent lineup in the Cardinals. On the other hand, I don't trust Woodford, even though he's facing an equally untrustworthy Brewers lineup.
Considering these dynamics, I'd rather just back Peralta than pick either side of this total.
Cardinals vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Sunday, April 9, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin Extra, Bally Sports Midwest |
Cardinals vs Brewers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jake Woodford (0-1, 12.46 ERA): ): In his first start of 2023, Woodford got shelled by the Braves, allowing six runs on seven hits through just 4 1/3 innings pitched. His underlying metrics in that contest were just as poor, posting a .481 xwOBA, .307 xBA, and .768 xSLG. While Atlanta features perhaps the best lineup in baseball, Woodford’s 2022 metrics were also concerning as he produced a 4.00 xERA and .276 xBA.
Freddy Peralta (1-0, 0.00 ERA): There are essentially no flaws in Peralta’s pitching ability. While health was an issue last season, his dominant first outing against the stacked Mets suggests that he is all the way back. In that contest, Peralta was tremendous as he threw six shutout innings while allowing just two hits and striking out seven. His underlying metrics in that outing were just as spectacular, posting a .234 xwOBA, .146 xBA, and .224 xSLG.
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To start 2022, Peralta recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his first four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Brewers
