Cardinals vs Cubs Sunday Night Baseball Props: Worth its Weight in Goldschmidt

The St. Louis Cardinals wrap up their first series against their long-time rival Chicago Cubs on Sunday Night Baseball, the fifth game played between the clubs in five days. They've gone back and forth since Thursday with each team winning twice.

With our favorite player prop picks, we're fading Cubs left-hander Justin Steele and favoring Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt as the primary threat. Additionally, we like Adam Wainwright to pitch deep into the night.

Be sure to also check out our full game betting analysis for Sunday Night Baseball.

MLB props for Cardinals vs Cubs

• Goldschmidt Over 1.5 TB (-105)
• Steele Over 4.5 Hs allowed (-165)
• Wainwright Over 18.5 Outs (+100)

Picks made on 5/29/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best Cardinals vs Cubs prop bets

Goldy's Steele-y resolve

Despite losing his 25-game hitting streak on Saturday, St. Louis Cardinals' first baseman Paul Goldschmidt still managed to get on base twice thanks to a pair of walks before potentially starting a new streak with a single in the nightcap against the Chicago Cubs. No hitter had a better month of May, and Goldy slashed .424/.482/.869 with 10 home runs and 14 doubles over the course of his streak.

With lefty Justin Steele toeing the rubber for Chicago tonight, it's unlikely Goldschmidt gets silenced again. This season, the veteran is crushing southpaw hurlers, going 18-for-35 (.514) with three home runs and seven doubles. And while that might seem like a small sample size, Goldy has a career .327 batting average against left-handed pitching over 1,271 at-bats. 

Steele has allowed a hit per inning this season, and even with solid strikeout numbers on the whole, he doesn't generate a ton of swings-and-misses with his 9.7% swinging-strike rate. And though he hasn't surrendered a lot of barrels, he'd have the seventh-highest hard-hit percentage against if he had enough innings under his belt to be a qualified starter.

Every hitter runs into an 0-fer now and then. It's why Joe DiMaggio's record 56-game streak from 1941 is likely untouchable. Lefties haven't been able to get Goldschmidt out with any consistency this season, and even if Steele gives way to the bullpen, Goldy hasn't exactly struggled much against right-handers, either.

Pick: Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 total bases (-105)

Goin' southpaw

Speaking of Steele, he's going to get hit around. The Cardinals own the second-best batting average against left-handed pitchers this season at .275 and an MLB-leading .799 OPS and 128 wRC+ vs. southpaws. The St. Louis offense owns an 18.6% strikeout rate against lefties, ranking in the lower third in baseball. 

Steele's allowed four or more hits in five of his 10 starts, but also hasn't squared off with this Cardinals lineup yet. And while Goldschmidt has been absolutely ludicrous against lefties, he's not alone. 

Nolan Arenado owns a .978 OPS and 170 wRC+ in 36 plate appearances vs. left-handers, along with Tommy Edman 2ho is slashing .356/.383/.511. And while he's long in the tooth and well past his prime, Albert Pujols was brought back into the fold for specifically this kind of matchup and he's hitting .357 with 181 wRC+ against lefties.

While -165 doesn't provide insane value, it does come with a 62.26% implied probability. With the way St. Louis has dismantled left-handed pitching on the season, it's a relatively safe avenue to travel.

Pick: Justin Steele Over 4.5 hits allowed (-165)

Wainwright on target

Somehow, 40-year-old right-hander Adam Wainwright appears to be getting better with age. He owns a 2.75 ERA over 59 innings this season, and is consistently asked to shoulder a heavy workload for a Cardinals pitching staff that has been ravaged by injuries to both the rotation and bullpen.

He's thrown 90-plus pitches in seven of his 10 starts and in seven of his last eight after getting fully stretched out. He's also finished seven innings in three of his last five outings.

Also, since uncharacteristically issuing five walks against Arizona on April 29, he's walked eight total batters over his last 32 innings (five starts), and has a 4-1 record over that time to show for it. The Cubs do a lot of their damage by working counts and drawing walks with the fourth-highest BB% in MLB.

The problem there is Waino generally doesn't lose command of the strike zone and will force batters to take their hacks in the zone when he's on his game, which he has been for the last month, lowering his ERA from 4.00 to 2.75 over five starts.

With the best defensive infield on the planet behind him, he can usually limit the traffic behind him, allowing four or fewer hits in four of those most recent five starts.

The Cardinals also used four relievers — each for more than one full inning — over the course of Saturday's doubleheader and no starter has gone deeper than five innings in the entire series, so it wouldn't be especially surprising if St. Louis needs Wainwright to eat as many innings as possible to help restore the relief corps. Pitching into the seventh and recording more than 18 outs is therefore the play.

Pick: Adam Wainwright Over 18.5 outs recorded (+100)

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