Sonny Gray has pitched very well this season, producing a 7-2 record and 3.72 ERA. His numbers are trending even further in the right direction as he’s allowed one run or less in three of his last four starts.
My Cardinals vs. Guardians predictions see Gray continuing his fine form against a struggling offense, helping the road team jump out to an early lead along the way.
Let’s take a closer look at my June 27 MLB picks.
Cardinals vs Guardians prediction
My Cardinals vs Guardians best bet: Cardinals F5 moneyline (-130 at DraftKings)
⚾ Pick Analysis
We’ll start with pitching, where the St. Louis Cardinals have a big edge — especially early on. Sonny Gray has held opposing teams to one run or fewer against him in five of his last eight starts.
The three exceptions came against the Phillies, Brewers, and Diamondbacks. The first first two clubs are holding onto playoff spots and are in the mix for top spot in their respective divisions. And while the Diamondbacks are hovering around .500, they are one of the best offensive teams in the league.
I’m not sure that can be said of the Cleveland Guardians. They rank 25th in runs per game, 25th in average, 26th in slugging, and 22nd in home runs. They don’t get on base, nor do they hit for power with any consistency.
What’s worse is their numbers are trending further downward. They have scored more than four runs just once since June 13, and their underlying metrics are putrid in this month.
They rank 29th in batting average against righties in June, while only the White Sox and Nationals sit beneath them in wOBA and slugging.
Gray owns a rock-solid 2.78 ERA over the last 30 days and his FIP (2.18) indicates he has pitched even better than the surface stats suggest.
He is likely to mow down this Guardians lineup, setting them up to grab an early lead against a more hittable pitcher in Luis Ortiz.
Cardinals vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Cardinals F5 moneyline
Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts
Alec Burleson Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
🚀 SGP Analysis
We’re backing the Cardinals to lead through five innings, which likely coincides with Gray putting forth a quality start. Why not double down and back his strikeout market as well?
The Guardians are struggling to string together hits and they’re striking out a ton in the process. In fact, their 24.9% K-rate vs. righties this month is the fourth-highest in the majors.
Gray has averaged 9.53 strikeouts per nine innings over the last month. Given his current form, and how cold the Guardians are at the dish, this is a matchup where he should be able to provide real length. If he can go 6+ innings, he’ll have a great chance of clearing this number.
Lastly, Alec Burleson is a strong candidate to put forth a quality offensive performance. He has averaged 2.4 H+R+R over the last 20 games, and Luis Ortiz has posted much worse underlying metrics against left-handed bats.
Burleson is also feasting on Ortiz’ most prominent pitches, owning a .333 average over the last month.
Cardinals vs Guardians odds
Cardinals vs Guardians live odds
Cardinals vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: St. Louis -127 | Cleveland +115
- Run line: St. Louis -1.5 (+130) | Cleveland +1.5 (-147)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-102) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Cardinals vs Guardians trend
St. Louis has led through five innings in three of the last four Sonny Gray starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Guardians.
How to watch Cardinals vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Friday, 6-27-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Sonny Gray (7-2, 3.72 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Luis Ortiz (4-8, 4.30 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Guardians latest injuries
Cardinals vs Guardians weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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