After earning an 11-4 win over the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday, the New York Mets will be looking to secure the series victory in the finale of this four-game set on Thursday. The Mets, who currently sit atop the NL East standings, are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
Will St. Louis find a way to even things up before it takes on the Pittsburgh Pirates this weekend? Check out our Cardinals vs. Mets MLB picks and predictions for May 19 for the answer.
Cardinals vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The total in this game hasn’t changed since opening at 7, shaded to the Under as of early Thursday morning. As for the moneyline, the Mets opened at -141 here and are up to as high as -161. The best price you’ll find on New York is -154.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Cardinals vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 5/19/2022 at 2:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cardinals vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, New York City, NY
• Date: Thursday, May 19, 2022
• First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
• TV: MLB Network
Cardinals vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Dakota Hudson (3-2, 3.06 ERA): Hudson is coming off a game in which he threw five shutout innings in a 4-0 win over the San Francisco Giants. He’ll now face the Mets for the first time since 2019, but this isn’t the same New York team. Hudson needs to bring his best stuff to shut down the Mets, but he has been reliable this year. The righty has given up three or fewer earned runs in all seven of his starts, but he doesn’t always give St. Louis a lot of innings.
Chris Bassitt (4-2, 2.34 ERA): Bassitt was borderline dominant in his last two seasons with the Oakland Athletics, and he has picked up where he left off in his first year with the Mets. The righty has allowed one or fewer runs in five of his seven starts this season, and he has had at least six strikeouts in six of those seven outings. Bassitt also happened to throw six shutout innings in a 3-0 win over St. Louis on April 26.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Cardinals: Drew VerHagen P (Out), Jack Flaherty P (Out).
Mets: Starling Marte OF (Out), Tylor Megill P (Out), Trevor May P (Out), James McCann C (Out), Jacob deGrom P (Out), Sean Reid-Foley P (Out), Jake Reed P (Out), Joey Lucchesi P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mets are 10-2 in their last 12 home games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Mets
Cardinals vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Mets had great platoon splits against right-handed pitching heading into Wednesday, and the team’s 11-4 win only improved New York’s numbers there. The Mets now have the best batting average in baseball against righties this year, hitting .263 in 2022. New York is still eighth in the league in on-base plus slugging against righties, and is also second in weighted runs created, with the lowest strikeout rate in baseball.
Look for Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso to factor heavily into this game, as both of them have on-base plus slugging of .876 or higher in 2022. McNeil is actually batting .367 against righties this year, so this is a matchup he’ll really like. Meanwhile, Alonso has hit seven homers off right-handed pitching on the season.
Bassitt also happens to have recently pitched very well against this Cardinals team. He struck out six batters and gave up just two hits in six shutout innings, and he now gets to return to Citi Field. The righty just allowed only one run over 5 2-3 innings in a win over the Seattle Mariners in Queens, providing recent momentum on the home mound.
Overall, it’s pretty hard to see why the Cardinals would win this one. New York crushes right-handed pitchers and has the better starter between these two.
Prediction: Mets moneyline (-154 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
The Mets are probably good for four or five runs in this game, as they have some hot bats after Wednesday’s 11-run performance, and, as mentioned, enjoy facing right-handed pitching. They should be able to get some runs across home plate against Hudson, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that this game will go Over the total — it’s hard to see how the Cardinals are going to manufacture three or more runs in this spot.
Bassitt’s ability to mix up his pitches had St. Louis’ hitters completely off balance in their last meeting, and he should have no trouble cruising again. The Mets will then need their bullpen to come through for two or three innings, but they should be able to do that. It doesn’t hurt that Edwin Diaz is looking like a reliable closer again.
The Under is 6-2 in St. Louis’ last eight games as a road underdog, and it’s 8-3 in the team’s last 11 in which it gave up five or more in its previous game, while being 7-3 in the Mets’ last 10 games overall.
Prediction: Under 7 (-103 at BetRivers)
Best bet
We backed the Mets to hit the Over on their 3.5-run team total on Wednesday, and they came through and scored 11. We’re going right back to the Over on the 3.5 in this one, as it’s another right-handed pitcher on the mound for St. Louis. This Mets team has had no trouble hitting righties all year, and New York should be able to score a few against Hudson early.
The Mets also showed that they can do some damage against the Cardinals bullpen on Wednesday, scoring nine runs against St. Louis’ relievers. Overall, New York has also reached the four-run mark in 22 of its 39 games this season, and the matchup indicates it’s very likely to happen again.
Pick: Mets Team Total Over 3.5 (-130 at Unibet)
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