The Chicago Cubs are back at it following an 0-2 start in the Tokyo Series and hit Chase Field to face the Arizona Diamondbacks in a clash of NL pennant hopefuls beginning Thursday, March 27.
Arizona is handing the ball to veteran righty Zac Gallen, and he headlines my top Cubs vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks below.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks prediction
My Cubs vs Diamondbacks best bet: Zac Gallen Under 4.5 strikeouts (+130 at bet365)
My analysis
Arizona Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen didn’t pile up the pitch counts during spring training, and topped out with 73 across 4 1/3 innings during his final tune-up last Thursday. He struck out two Athletics while allowing a single run on five hits and two walks.
Gallen pitched just five innings across his three prior starts, so I’m not expecting him to approach triple-digit pitches in the season opener, especially if he has a few road bumps navigating the Chicago Cubs lineup.
The Cubs had a middling 22.6 K% last season, and I expect their lineup to be better against righties in 2025. Outfielder Kyle Tucker and rookie third baseman Matt Shaw bolster the bunch, in addition to sophomore Pete Crow-Armstrong building off a late-season surge.
Gallen’s strikeout percentage has dipped to 25.6% over the past two seasons compared to his 27.3% mark through his first four tours through the majors. It also aligned with him posting an 8.7 BB% in 2024, and he walked five batters this spring for a 12.5% mark.
If his command is off, his pitch count should climb quickly. Chicago had the third-highest walk rate in the majors against righties last season, and as noted, I’m expecting more from the North Siders this year.
Finally, Gallen threw 90 pitches across five innings and only fanned three in his 2024 season debut against a lowly Rockies lineup that finished the year with the second-highest strikeout rate in the majors (26.6%).
Cubs vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Zac Gallen Under 4.5 strikeouts
Justin Steele Over 15.5 outs
Kyle Tucker 2+ hits + runs + RBI
Cubs lefty Justin Steele had a tough season opener against the Dodgers in Tokyo, but he threw 67 pitches across four innings and should be close to fully stretched out. The Diamondbacks also have a splash of statistical correction coming to their league-high .334 BABIP against lefties last year.
Turning to Tucker, he’s been a consistent source of offense against right-handed pitchers throughout his career and sports a monster 150 wRC+, .242 ISO, and .378 OBP. I also value him slotting into the two-spot in this lineup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks odds
Cubs vs Diamondbacks live odds
Cubs vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +125 | Arizona -135
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-175) | Arizona -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Cubs vs Diamondbacks trend
The Diamondbacks have cashed the Over in 69 of their last 107 games (+31.00 units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Cubs vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Thursday, 3-27-2025 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marquee, Dbacks TV |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Justin Steele (2024: 5-5, 3.07 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Zac Gallen (2024: 14-6, 3.65 ERA) |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Cubs vs Diamondbacks weather
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