The Chicago Cubs are five games out of the NL wild card with a few weeks left to play. However, the Los Angeles Dodgers await tonight.
My Cubs vs. Dodgers predictions aren't comfortable backing either side, considering how badly both starters have fared. So, tonight's MLB picks will pivot to the first-half total.
Cubs vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
First five innings Over 5.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Chicago Cubs offense has shown plenty of promise of late, ranking sixth in wRC+ over the past 14 days with an influx of good contact we saw out of this team early in the year.
Over that span, Chicago has hit .268 while continuing to take walks at a high rate as it’s now done for a month. It’s struggled a bit to limit strikeouts and owns just a .140 Isolated Power, but Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler should help the Cubs out considering the terrible run he’s been on.
Buehler may have escaped his last start against the lowly Los Angeles Angels with just two earned runsbut both came on solo homers. He also walked two, bringing his total to 10 across 17 innings in four starts since returning from injury. He now owns an incredibly poor .280 expected batting average and .458 expected slugging percentage in those outings. For reference, the respective league averages are .245 and .406.
With a patient approach and an eye toward contact, the Cubs should produce a fruitful night at the dish against Buehler. Unfortunately, that may not be enough support for Kyle Hendricks.
The Dodgers enter this one ranked fourth in OPS vs. ground-ball pitchers, though they’re further back when it comes to batting average (ninth). Hendricks owns a poor .291 xBA and .454 xSLG for the season, numbers that have only grown worse since the start of August at .308 and .471, respectively.
Now fully healthy, L.A. has stabilized at the dish over the last two weeks with a .274 average and .184 ISO and while the Dodgers haven’t been taking walks like we’re used to seeing, that should actually help them against a pitcher they’ll want to be attacking with swings.
The Dodgers bullpen remains incredibly strong, and Chicago’s stable has posted a surprising 3.08 ERA in the second half. I don’t want any part of suffering through the late innings as a result and will opt for the first half of this one.
Shohei Ohtani pick: Hit parade
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 hits (+160 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Hendricks’ lone start against the Dodgers this season didn’t go according to plan as he surrendered five runs on eight hits and two walks. Just two batters in, Shohei Ohtani greeted him with a double deep into the gap. He’d add a two-run homer off Hendricks later in the game, and with that I think we’re in the clear to bet on the MVP favorite to go off again here.
Ohtani has hit the second-most homers against ground-ball pitchers this season and is just two total bases shy of the league lead in that category as well. Hitting .307 with a .632 slugging percentage in the split, I think we can get aggressive here and skip over his total bases which are juiced up to -150 or higher.
The Japanese slugger has now had two multi-hit efforts in the last three games and nine over his last 17. While I’m intrigued by his number to go deep or even just rack up a double, I think the best value here is on multiple hits in a high-scoring game that should net him five plate appearances.
Cubs vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
F5 Over 5.5
Shohei Ohtani 2+ hits
Dansby Swanson 1+ hits
Hendricks won’t be the only pitcher to struggle, and we’ll be rewarded for taking a hitter on either side as we look to beef up the odds.
Dansby Swanson, coming in with a .333/.407/.667 slash line in his last 13 games, will be my guy. It’s been a long time coming, considering he continues to maintain an xBA around .250 in a rather unlucky season.
Swanson remains one of the Cubs' premier heater mashers, hitting .266 against all fastballs with a .283 xBA, and he’ll have some fun against Buehler, who’s thrown a version of a fastball 66.5% of the time this season. And it's been very hittable.
Whether it’s the four-seamer, cutter, or sinker, Swanson should square him up quite well. He’s gone 5-for-17 (.294) against Buehler in his career with a .338 xBA, and many of those meetings came back when Buehler was worlds better. Back Swanson to stay hot in chorus with the other bets we’ve covered.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Dodgers odds
Cubs vs Dodgers live odds
Cubs vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +160 | Los Angeles -190
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-125) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)
Cubs vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened around -190 on the moneyline, and there’s been very little movement as they remain strong favorites.
- L.A. has commanded 86% of the moneyline bets and 84% of the cash at DraftKings.
- The total has been climbing over the last 24 hours, briefly dipping to nine runs after opening at 9.5 and jumping all the way to 10 on Monday afternoon.
- While just 55% of the tickets are on the Over, it’s commanded 85% of the handle.
Cubs vs Dodgers trend
Trend to know: The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.55 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Dodgers.
Cubs vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Monday, 9-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, SportsNet LA |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Kyle Hendricks (3-11 6.60 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Walker Buehler (1-4, 5.67 ERA) |
Cubs vs Dodgers latest injuries
Cubs vs Dodgers weather
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