The San Francisco Giants have won the first two games of their series against the Chicago Cubs, and San Fran will look to rookie righty Hayden Birdsong to make it three in a row in his MLB debut on June 26.
Unfortunately for Birdsong, my Cubs vs. Giants predictions don't expect it to be a debut worth remembering. Find out why I'm taking the Over on Chicago's team total in my MLB picks ahead!
Cubs vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Cubs Over 3.5 runs (-114 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Chicago Cubs have hit a low point with the offense cooling down. Chicago enters Wednesday’s game in a 6-12 skid with a 22nd-ranked .298 wOBA and 93 wRC+.
The Cubbies started much better offensively with a 14th-ranked .310 wOBA and 15th-ranked 101 wRC+ the first month of the year, and those numbers were already down from last season’s respective .326 and 104 marks. One obvious difference is the Cubs posted a .303 BABIP in 2023 and are at .282 through 80 games this year.
From a personnel standpoint, the 2024 Chicago lineup is improved on paper, with the emergence of Michael Busch bringing his big-time bat to the heart of the order.
Backing the North Siders team total tonight is just as much about targeting San Francisco Giants rookie Hayden Birdsong as it is about the potential for statistical correction for Chicago's offense. San Fran has turned to its bullpen for an MLB-high 55 1/3 innings without a day off since June 13, and Birdsong has been fast tracked to the majors following two unimpressive starts in Triple-A.
Make no mistake, Birdsong has flashed in the minors and boasts the potential to be an excellent mid-rotation arm with a three-pitch mix. It’s just this promotion is definitely out of necessity and not because he’s earned the call.
In particular, Birdsong hasn’t corrected his control shortcomings. He walked 3.9 batters per nine innings in the minors last year and 4.1 BB/9 through 13 starts in 2024.
Cubs vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs Over 3.5 runs
Hayden Birdsong Over 4.5 strikeouts
I’m anticipating Chicago putting runs on the board and Birdsong pitching as deep into Wednesday’s game as possible. The San Fran rookie has been a K maestro in the minors (11.8 K/9 this season), and the Cubbies strike out the sixth most against RHP (24.5%).
There’s also a small edge in shopping for the best price with this SGP. The +275 bet365 odds present a positive expected value of 8% compared to FanDuel's number of +247.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Giants odds
Cubs vs Giants live odds
Cubs vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-210) | San Francisco _1.5 (+175)
- Moneyline: Chicago +105 | San Francisco -125
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (+100) | Under 8.0 (-120)
Cubs vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- This moneyline hasn’t seen meaningful movement since opening Wednesday morning. With the Giants short home favorites, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cubs support at plus-money odds against the rookie Birdsong ahead of the opening pitch.
- There isn’t a consensus total, with multiple shops at both 8.0 and 7.5 as of Wednesday morning.
- Neither offense inspires a lot of confidence, but it’s been over a month since Wesneski’s last start, and Birdsong is making his MLB debut.
- The total was 8.0 for Tuesday’s game, so as a result, I suspect there will be action on the Over throughout the day.
Cubs vs Giants trend
The Cubs have scored four or more runs in five of their past eight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Giants
Cubs vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, NBCSBA |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Hayden Wesneski (2-4, 3.29 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Hayden Birdsong MLB debut |
Cubs vs Giants latest injuries
Cubs vs Giants weather
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