Cubs vs Orioles Picks and Predictions: Contreras & Co. Add to Bradish's Struggles

The visiting Chicago Cubs will open a two-game interleague series vs. the Baltimore Orioles tonight if the weather cooperates. Both teams roll in with an identical 4-6 straight-up record over their last 10 games and the books opened this one as a pick ‘em.

Can Chicago’s Keegan Thompson improve his record to 7-0 despite making just his fifth start of the season or can Baltimore and its low-scoring offense rely on that elite bullpen again tonight? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Orioles. 

Cubs vs Orioles odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Tonight’s series opener opened as a pick ‘em but the Cubs have become the slight -115 favorite as of noon today. 

Since opening at 9, the total has fallen to 8.5 and leans to the Over. These two clubs have not met since 2017 and the Cubs have won six straight interleague meetings.  

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Cubs vs Orioles predictions

• Prediction: Cubs ML (-115)
• Prediction: Under 8.5 (+100)
• Best bet: Bradish Over 2.5 ER (-118)

Picks made on 6/07/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Cubs vs Orioles game info

• Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
• Date: Tuesday, June 7, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Marquee Sports Network, MASN 2

Cubs vs Orioles betting preview

Starting pitchers

Keegan Thompson (6-0, 1.99 ERA): Thompson’s record and ERA might fool some quick-looking bettors but the Chicago pitcher has spent more time out of the bullpen than he has starting games this season. Of his 45 1-3 innings of work, only 19 1-3 of those have come as a starter. It has been a seamless transition, though, for the second-year hurler who is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA in the rotation.

Thompson has been giving up weak contact but does not overpower batters with a fastball that averages 93.8 mph. He is coming off his worst start (5 1-3 innings, three runs, three walks and three strikeouts) and hasn’t thrown more than 89 pitches in any outing this season.

Kyle Bradish (1-3, 6.82 ERA):  The Orioles will send out the rookie right-hander for the eighth time this season. Only four other MLB starters have a worse ERA than Bradish (min. 30 innings), who has recorded 15 or more outs just once over his last four starts.

Over that stretch, he’s allowed 17 runs (16 innings) including a whopping 25 hits and five home runs. He’s been even worse at home with batters posting a .927 OPS versus the young starter across 24-plus innings.  

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Cubs: Jonathan Villar SS (Questionable), Seiya Suzuki OF (Out), David Bote 3B (Out), Yan Gomes C (Out).

Orioles: Chris Owings SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Cubs are 4-0 SU in Thompson’s last four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Orioles

Cubs vs Orioles picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Neither team comes into tonight’s two-game series opener in great form as the Cubs have won just four of their last 10 with a minus-nine run differential but have played a tough stretch of baseball with nine straight games versus the Brewers and Cardinals. Getting away from Wrigley is also a good thing for the 23-32 Cubs who are 12-12 SU on the road this year.

The Chicago offense has been an average unit on the season and sits just outside the Top 10 in most categories. But the Cubbies could be swinging for the fences tonight with Baltimore's Kyle Bradish on the mound.

Bradish is likely the reason we’ve seen this line move off the pick ‘em as the young right-hander has been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball for roughly two months. 

Only four other pitchers in baseball have a worse ERA than Bradish (min. 30 innings) and things have been going even worse for the starter of late. Over his last four starts, he owns a 9.56 ERA and has been hit hard. He currently sits in the Bottom 3% in average exit velocity at 92.3 mph. There aren’t many, if any, indicators that show this trend is going to regress positively as his xwOBA, xERA, and xSLG are all in the Bottom 10% of the league.

The Cubs have the advantage on the bump and Chicago rookie Keegan Thompson could continue to roll tonight as the Orioles have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball.

Thompson started his MLB career in the bullpen but has found his way into the rotation and has been looking polished in the role. Over his last three starts, he’s recorded at least 15 outs and has given up just a single home run. Rain could be an issue, but Thompson has seen some decent offenses (Arizona, St. Louis, and San Diego) over his last five games and is gaining confidence. 

Keegan Thompson is 6-0 with a 1.99 ERA this season. He's establishing himself at the major-league level and becoming an exciting development for the Cubs' pitching plans moving forward. With the possibility of Caleb Kilian's arrival soon, a glimpse at the rotation for the future.

— Chris Emma (@CEmma670) June 3, 2022

Thompson faces an offense that has the third-worst OBP over the last 30 days, is generating runs at a Bottom-10 rate on the season, strikes out a ton and struggles to go deep in a now-pitcher-friendly ballpark.

The Orioles have an elite bullpen that is rested with the day off yesterday but the Cubs could be seeing the “B” bullpen today as we doubt Bradish hands over the ball with a lead. 

Willson Contreras has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball with a .400/.545/.840 slash line over his last seven games and could lead the way for the Cubs.

Prediction: Cubs moneyline (-115 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

We’ve already seen this total move a half run from 9.0 to 8.5 and we can understand the reasoning.

Baltimore is 24-30-2 to the Under on the season and the adjustments to Camden Yards have helped push the O’s to 7.6 total runs per game at home, which is a Bottom-10 mark in baseball. 

Baltimore is on a 7-1 stretch to the Over across their last eight games but more than half of those games needed one team to score at least nine runs to cash. With Baltimore’s No. 4-ranked bullpen coming in healthy, things might not get out of hand in the later innings.

The weather is also a factor. Rain is expected but could be done before the first pitch while humidity will be low. Wind could be an issue but it’s tough to project where the possible 11 mph winds will be blowing. Both pitchers like to pitch to contact and if that wind is blowing in, we could see this total trend to the Under 8.5.

We like Thompson to navigate this weak Baltimore lineup and then hand things over to a Chicago bullpen that has the league’s second-best K/9 rate and the No. 1 xFIP.

Set-up man Mychal Givens knows this Baltimore lineup well after spending five seasons with the Orioles and he’ll hand things over to closer David Robertson, who has a 1.66 ERA and is striking out over 35% of the batters he’s facing. 

Both bullpens should be able to slow things down late as Baltimore’s best feature this season has been its relievers, who currently own the league’s fifth-best ERA.

We’re following the market movement and hitting the Under 8.5 tonight in Maryland.

Prediction: Under 8.5 (+100 at bet365)

Best bet

Looking for our best “Fade Bradish Bet,” we’re settling on Bradish Over 2.5 earned runs at -115. The Baltimore starter has some of the worst stats in baseball and with an average exit velocity that sits in the Bottom 3% in baseball, even his outs are loud.

The Cubs have a very underrated lineup and even with Seiya Suzuki on the sidelines, Contreras has picked up the slack and this has been a Top-10 offense over the last 30 days. Ian Happ and Frank Schwindel make up the rest of the middle of the order and both batters have an OPS north of .820 over the last month.

Bradish has allowed three or more earned runs in three of his last four starts and with him allowing 10.91 hits per nine innings, which is the third-worst mark in baseball. Couple that with a 2.2 HR/9 and his numbers could actually be worse than they are.

Pick: Kyle Bradish Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115)

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