The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies face off in the second contest of a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday.
The Cubs hammered the Phillies 15-2 last night but oddsmakers expect the Phillies to bounce back, with MLB betting lines opening with the home side as -160 favorites.
Here are our best free Cubs vs. Phillies MLB picks and predictions for July 23.
Cubs vs Phillies odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with the Phillies at -150 and the Over/Under at 8. Early money has come in on the Phillies, shifting their odds to around -172, while the total has ticked down to 7.5 at some books, albeit juiced towards the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Cubs vs Phillies predictions
Picks made on 7/23/2022 at 8:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cubs vs Phillies game info
• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Saturday, July 23, 2022
• First pitch: 6:05 p.m. ET
• TV: MARQ, NBCS-CHI
Cubs vs Phillies betting preview
Starting pitchers
Marcus Stroman (2-5, 4.69 ERA): The diminutive right-hander has been wildly inconsistent this season despite a solid 1.15 WHIP and an OBA of .230 in 11 starts. Since the beginning of May, Stroman has looked sharp in all but one of his seven starts, a June outing against the Cardinals where he was shredded for nine runs in just four innings. In his other six starts during that span, he has pitched to a 1.39 ERA with a 0.77 WHIP.
Zack Wheeler (8-5, 2.89 ERA): The 2021 All-Star is putting together another strong season for the Phillies, pitching to a 1.08 WHIP while ranking 11th in the majors in strikeouts per nine innings (9.6). However, Wheeler is coming off a rough outing against the Jays where he surrendered seven hits and six runs before getting the hook midway through the fifth inning.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cubs are 18-55 in their last 73 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Phillies
Cubs vs Phillies picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Cubs lineup erupted for 19 hits (including nine extra-base hits) in yesterday's 15-2 mauling of the Phillies. That's a great way to start off the second half of their season since they went into the All-Star break having lost nine of their previous 10 games and currently have the fourth-worst record in the majors at 36-57.
The Phillies are very much in the Wild Card picture with a 49-44 record and will send right-hander Zack Wheeler and his 2.89 ERA to the mound this evening. Wheeler is coming off an ugly outing against the Jays but he had a 1.53 ERA over his previous 13 starts.
The analytics suggest that he's been more good than lucky, with Wheeler among the Top-10th percentile of pitchers in average exit velocity and chase rate, while ranking among the Top-20th percentile in hard-hit rate, walk rate, and fastball velocity.
The Cubs will have Marcus Stroman on the hill, and while he's been solid in most of his starts, the analytics suggest things could be a lot worse. Stroman is a guy without overpowering stuff, and in the past, he was excellent at generating ground balls. But this season, he's among the Bottom-fifth percentile of pitchers when it comes to average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
That's bad news against a Phillies lineup that's sixth in the majors in hard-hit percentage while ranking seventh in average exit velocity. Meanwhile, the Cubs are below average in both categories, ranking 16th in hard-hit percentage and 17th in average exit velocity. They've also been extremely inconsistent at the dish, and when they don't go off for a bunch of runs (like they did last night) they are typically held to three runs or fewer. In fact, the Cubs have scored more than three runs in just three of their last 16 games.
Prediction: Phillies moneyline (-165 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
It's never a good sign when a pitcher like Stroman, who used to generate ground balls, is now getting hit hard. In his best seasons, he had a ground-ball percentage hovering around 64%, but this year that sits at a career-low 45.3%, while his average launch angle of 9.8 is far higher than the 0.6 it sat at during his strong 2017 campaign.
Even with Bryce Harper sidelined until August, the Phillies have plenty of bats with pop including Kyle Schwarber (30 home runs and 59 RBI) and Rhys Hoskins (19 doubles and 19 homers). I'm expecting those bats to get to either Stroman or a Cubs bullpen that ranks 24th in the majors in ERA (4.28) and 23rd in OBA (.247).
Meanwhile, as good as Wheeler has been, the Over has still gone 6-4 in his last 10 starts. With a steady 8 mph breeze blowing out towards those short power alleys at Citizen's Bank Park, I'm leaning towards the Over today.
Prediction: Over 7.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Best bet
The Cubs may have looked terrific last night, but this has been one of the worst teams in the majors this season and it seems like they either go ice-cold at the dish or red-hot without any in-between performances.
They've been ice-cold more times than not this year, and sending a pitcher with an expected ERA of 4.26 to the mound today — while their bullpen has been even worse — is not a good sign for Cubbies backers.
With the Phillies sending Wheeler and his impressive arm to the hill, we'll back the home side to win on the run line as they get a little bit of revenge for last night's debacle.
Pick: Phillies run line -1.5 (+130 at BetVictor)
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