Cubs vs Pirates Picks and Predictions: Chicago's Righty-Heavy Lineup Gives Quintana Nightmares

After surprisingly beating the Milwaukee Brewers in two of their first three games, the Chicago Cubs now look to keep it up when they take on the bottom-feeding Pittsburgh Pirates. Both teams look like they're in rebuild mode, but a hot start to the season can change all public perception. 

Will the Cubs get off to a good start in back-to-back series? Continue reading our MLB betting picks and predictions to find out.

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Cubs vs Pirates odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Cubs were -102 favorites when this game first became available, but the best you'll find them at now is -108. Most sportsbooks have them as -115 by this writing. 

Meanwhile, the total in this game is down at 9 and the Under appears to be getting some juice. That's a bit surprising when you consider who is on the mound.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Cubs vs Pirates predictions

• Prediction: Cubs ML (-108)
• Prediction: Over 9 (-102)
• Best bet: Cubs Over 4.5 runs (+104)

Picks made on 4/12/2022 at 12:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Cubs vs Pirates game info

• Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Tuesday, April 12, 2022
• First pitch: 4:12 p.m. ET
• TV: Marquee Sports Network, AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh

Cubs vs Pirates betting preview

Starting pitchers

Drew Smyly (2021: 11-4, 4.48 ERA): Smyly had a great record in the 2021 season, but a lot of that had to do with playing for the World Series champion Atlanta Braves. The lefty constantly had the run support required to win games, but his ERA was middling at best and his peripherals weren't any better. Now playing for a rebuilding Cubs team. And while you can't put too much stock into spring training numbers, Smyly wasn't sharp, posting a 6.14 ERA over 7 1/3 innings. 

Jose Quintana (0-3, 6.43 ERA): Quintana was once one of the more talented pitchers in baseball, but we haven’t seen him pitch consistently at a high level since about 2017. Last season, the lefty had a 6.75 ERA in his 24 games with the Los Angeles Angels, and he then had a 4.66 ERA in five bullpen appearances with the San Francisco Giants. Quintana is now a starter again with Pittsburgh, but it’s hard to expect much from him as that team is just trotting out warm bodies at this point in the rebuild. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Cubs: Alec Mills P (Out), Wade Miley P (Out), Andrelton Simmons SS (Out), Adbert Alzolay P (Out).
Pirates: Duane Underwood P (Out), Kevin Newman SS (Questionable), Greg Allen OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Cubs are 7-1 in their last eight games as favorites. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Pirates.

Cubs vs Pirates picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Not only was Jose Quintana moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen last year, but he also wasn't very successful following the switch. In July, the lefty has an ERA of 5.87 in 7 2/3 innings outs of the bullpen. He then had a 4.91 ERA in August, and he followed it up with an ERA of 7.11 in September. It has just been a really long time since we’ve seen the 33-year-old looking dangerous on the mound, and he now faces a Cubs team that has the right pieces to light him up. 

While Chicago's lineup isn't loaded with superstars like it once was, the team can stack righties in this meeting with the southpaw. Of the Cubs regulars, only Rafael Ortega and Jason Heyward exclusively bat left-handed. Last year, righties hit .344 with 10 homers and 36 RBI against Quintana in 180 at-bats. Those splits are just outrageously bad and the Cubs are going to try to make him as uncomfortable as possible.

With that, look for Chicago to give switch-hitting infielder Jonathan Villar a start. While plenty of Cubs are capable of doing damage, with Seiya Suzuki being one of them, Villar is 5-for-14 with a double and a home run against Quintana in the past and has typically hit lefties a tad better than he has right-handers over the course of his career and featured an especially potent bat against left-handers in 2021, batting .281 against them compared to .234 against righties. The utilityman is on the team for matchups like this one, and he should come through. 

As for Drew Smyly, you shouldn’t expect to see many dominant starts out of the veteran this season. The lefty is, however, capable of giving his team a chance to win games. Last year, Smyly gave up only three earned runs in five innings of work in his only trip to PNC Park.

And, if anything, this version of the Pirates is even worse than that one, as they no longer have Adam Frazier atop the lineup. Frazier wreaked havoc against opposing pitchers when he was still with the Bucs and went 4-for-5 in that game against Smyly and the Braves bullpen. Even with teams being cautious with their pitchers in the early going after an abbreviated spring, Smyly could easily pitch into the sixth against what might barely pass as a solid Triple-A lineup.

Prediction: Cubs moneyline (-108 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

This might not be a game that features two potent offenses, but it certainly has two lousy starters going at it on the mound. Smyly is coming off a year in which he gave up 63 earned runs in just 126 2/3 innings of work, so it’s not like he’s somebody who can be counted on to go out there and blank his opponent.

The Pirates are going to get runners on base, and Bryan Reynolds is one player who could help Over bettors here. The Pittsburgh star has a pair of homers under his belt against Smyly in his career, but he particularly rakes against left-handers in general. In 2021 alone, Reynolds hit .325 against southpaws in 191 plate appearances. Hitting near the top of the Pirates lineup as he has to start the season, Reynolds will get ample opportunities to add to his resume against Smyly, who hasn't been one of the league's top lefties in quite some time.

Quintana is also going to take his licks in this game, as he did exactly that no matter where he pitched last season. Now, the lefty faces a Cubs lineup that should be stacked with righties at the plate, and that has been Quintana’s weakness over the years. 

The Over is actually 7-0 in the last seven road games that Chicago has played against left-handed starters, and the team’s ability to hit them is a big part of that. On top of that, the Over is 12-3-1 in the Cubs’ last 16 games against lefties, in general. 

Prediction: Over 9 (-102 at TwinSpires)

Best bet

Last season, the Cubs were tied for eighth in the league in on-base percentage against left-handed pitching, and the team should once again be a problem for southpaws — especially ones that are starting the game on the mound. Manager David Ross has a lot of players in his lineup that see the ball well against lefties, with the previously mentioned Villar being one of them.

Willson Contreras, who is one of the lone holdovers from the 2016 World Series team, has also mashed against lefties in his career, slashing .284/.356/.534 last year versus left-handers. Contreras is in the meat of Chicago's lineup, typically batting third so far this year. The same goes for Frank Schwindel, who hit .356 with five homers and nine RBIs in 59 at-bats against lefties last year. 

With some of those aforementioned players, along with newcomer Nick Madrigal — who owned lefties in limited PAs a year ago (.375 average) before his season-ending injury — likely to have their eyes light up in a meeting with a subpar left-handed pitcher, Chicago is in a great position to put up a good amount of runs. There’s a reason the Cubs are favored on the road with a mediocre starter of their own on the hill, and that’s because they match up really well with Quintana. 

Pick: Cubs team total Over 4.5 runs (+104 at UniBet)

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