The New York Yankees won their ninth game of the last 10, handing the Chicago Cubs their fourth consecutive defeat on Friday.
New York will try to sweep the Cubs on Saturday, sending Jordan Montgomery to the mound, while the Cubs will try and end their losing streak with Matt Swarmer.
Can the Yankees keep their winning ways going or will the Cubs pull off the upset in the Bronx?
Find out what we think with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Yankees on Saturday, June 11.
Cubs vs Yankees odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Yankees opened as -263 favorites, but the line fell to -250. The Cubs started at +215 and are between there at +205.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Cubs vs Yankees predictions
Picks made on 6/11/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cubs vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Date: Saturday, June 11, 2022
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Cubs vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Matt Swarmer (1-0, 1.50 ERA): The Cubs’ starting rotation has been decimated by injuries, but that has given guys like Swarmer a chance. The 28-year-old right-hander has now made two MLB starts and has wowed his manager and confounded opposing batters.
In his two games in the majors, Swarmer has gone a total of 12 innings, allowing just two runs on seven hits, while striking out 11 and posting a WHIP of 0.83.
Jordan Montgomery (1-1, 3.02 ERA): Montgomery is establishing himself as a solid No. 2 pitcher behind ace Gerrit Cole. The 29-year-old lefty has only one win this season in 11 starts, but his body of work has been impressive despite the absence of wins to show for it.
In five of his last six outings, he has gone five or more innings. In his last outing, against the Detroit Tigers, Montgomery went 6 1-3 innings allowing two runs on five hits while striking out five.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Cubs: Jonathan Villar SS (Questionable), Seiya Suzuki OF (Questionable), David Bote 3B (Out), Manuel Rodriguez RP (Out).
Yankees: Aroldis Chapman RP (Out), Jonathan Loaisiga RP (Out), Chad Green RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cubs are 0-6 in their last six games on the road against the Yankees, and 2-12 in the last 14 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Yankees
Cubs vs Yankees picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
There is no doubt that rookie pitcher Matt Swarmer has performed well in his first two games in the big leagues. He limited both the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers to a run apiece.
Those were both home games and it was nice to get acclimated to his new job in a friendly atmosphere. The real test comes Saturday when the lefty has to walk into Yankee Stadium and face one of the most intimidating lineups in baseball.
Swarmer will face a team that is fifth in runs, 12th in hits, sixth in RBI, and first in home runs.
Despite being in next to last place, the Cubs have decent offensive numbers. They are 14th in batting average, 17th in runs, 13th in hits, and 15th in home runs.
In their previous 10 games, they have been competitive, even if they aren’t winning — but they are losing by more than two runs. Throw out Friday’s 2-1 defeat to the Yankees and in their last six games, they have lost by two or more runs in all six.
The best price to get the Yankees on the moneyline is -250. I’m not a fan of betting the run line when you aren’t getting plus odds, but -120 is a whole lot better than -250. I’ll lay the 1.5 runs and look for New York to win by at least two.
Prediction: Yankees -1.5 (-120 at BetRivers)
Over/Under analysis
With all the firepower the Yankees have, Friday’s two runs by the Bronx Bombers seemed like a bit of an anomaly. The trends, however, support the Under for both teams.
The Yankees have hit the Under in seven of their last eight games when the total is set at 9.0-10.5. The Under is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last six when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. The Cubs had one run on Friday.
The Under is also 3-0-1 for the Yankees in their last four during Game 2 of a series, and 5-1 in the last six interleague home games against a team with a losing record.
The Cubs have hit the Under in seven of their last eight interleague games vs. a left-handed starter and are 5-1 on the Under against a lefty on the road. The Under for Chicago is 6-2 in the Cubs’ last eight games as a road underdog.
When the two teams have played each other, the Under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings and 5-0 in the last five meetings in Yankee Stadium.
Prediction: Under 9 (-110 at BetRivers)
Best bet
Jordan Montgomery is having a phenomenal season so far. The Yankees lefty has established himself as the No. 2 starter in the rotation and his numbers are trending better than last year’s stats.
In 11 starts, Montgomery has 46 strikeouts in 59 2-3 innings, for about a 20% strikeout rate. He is striking out batters 4.6 times for every walk. In his last start, against the Detroit Tigers, he punched out five batters.
What has helped Montgomery get bats whiffing is his pitch movement profile has vastly improved. Four of his five pitches have more inches of drop and break than last season. Another advantage is Montgomery has five pitches — four-seam fastball, sinker, curveball, changeup, and cutter — that he can choose from to get batters swinging.
The Cubs might be ready to oblige Montgomery with whiffs. Chicago ranks 10th in the majors in strikeouts with 499. I think it’ll add at least six to that total on Saturday.
Pick: Jordan Montgomery Over 5.5 strikeouts (+125)
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