An intriguing interleague series begins on Friday with the Arizona Diamondbacks hitting the road against the Houston Astros.
The Astros have seen their division lead slip to below five games as they've hit a slump. As for the Diamondbacks, they hold a decent lead on one of the last Wild Card spots in the NL.
Tonight, we'll see two of the teams' best pitchers go head-to-head in Brandon Pfaadt and Framber Valdez, and I'm focused on one of latter's props as I make my Diamondbacks vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks for September 6.
Diamondbacks vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Framber Valdez Under 1.5 earned runs allowed (+125 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
One of the first things you want to do when handicapping a game involving Houston Astros starter Framber Valdez is establish how often the opposing team hits ground balls. That's because Valdez is one of the best in baseball at inducing them and has been that way since he came into the league. He'll enter today with a ground ball rate that places him in the Top 3% of baseball in such metrics.
In the case of the Arizona Diamondbacks, they hit a high amount of ground balls, ranking fifth overall in that metric. That's a good thing for Valdez, and I'm backing him to take advantage of what amounts to a great matchup.
In his last five starts, Valdez has gone Under 1.5 earned runs allowed three times. He's hit his playoff form with a sub-1.50 ERA in that sample, and his ability to go deep into games has also increased. What's most significant to this game Valdez was stellar the last time he faced a team in the Top 5 in groundball rate. It came against the Miami Marlins, who have the highest rate in baseball, and Valdez proceeded to go seven innings and allow just one earned run while tallying 10 strikeouts.
The Snakes have been hot on offense lately but have been off-and-on for much of the season. Even the last five games give you an indication of that. It's a stretch that's seen them score over eight runs twice but also go seven innings with one run or fewer twice. It follows the pattern that we've seen much of the season.
Outside the heavy ground ball clip, the Diamondbacks see drops in BABIP and slugging percentage when facing breaking balls. They should see a heavy dosage of those pitches today, as Valdez rarely throws anything else. This sets up well for him to have a very strong showing.
Diamondbacks vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Framber Valdez Under 1.5 earned runs allowed
Yordan Alvarez 1+ home run
Yordan Alvarez has been too quiet for too long, and he'll enter this one with just one hit in three games and batting .200 in September. It won't last, and I expect him to break out of the slump with a boom tonight.
Alvarez has never faced Brandon Pfaadt, who is on the mound tonight for Arizona, but the metrics match up decently. Pfaadt has given up an above-average hard-hit rate this season, and his fastball/sweeper combo works well for Alvarez. The big man ranks second and first, respectively, in hard-hit rate among Astros when facing those pitches.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Astros odds
Diamondbacks vs Astros live odds
Diamondbacks vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona +1.5 (-175) | Houston -1.5 (+145)
- Run line: Arizona +130 | Houston -155
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Diamondbacks vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Houston has had its way with Arizona in recent meetings with a commanding 7-3 advantage in the last 10 games.
- The Astros have a 5-5 record in their last 10 games, coming into this one after being swept by the Cincinnati Reds.
- The Under has been a significant trend across Houston's last 10 games, with the total going in that direction eight times.
- The Diamondbacks have been worse during this period. They've gone 4-6, which has resulted in bettors losing over two units.
Diamondbacks vs Astros trend
The Astros have hit the Under in 73 of their last 124 games (+19.80 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Astros.
Diamondbacks vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Friday, 9-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, SCHN |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Framber Valdez (13-6, 3.11 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Brandon Pfaadt (9-7, 4.32 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Astros latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Astros weather
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