This NL series continues on Saturday evening with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks at American Family Field. MLB odds have Milwaukee as a -115 favorite, while the total sits at 8.5.
My Diamondbacks vs. Brewers prediction is optimistic on the Over, primarily due to these two starting pitchers.
Read on for my MLB picks for Saturday, September 21.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
These are two of the best lineups in the MLB. Both teams rank Top 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP and OPS.
Each side should be able to capitalize on this pitching matchup. The Arizona Diamondbacks hand the ball to right-hander Merrill Kelly, who profiles as a good fade candidate.
Kelly possesses a 4.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through 11 starts this season, but his underlying metrics are more concerning. The right-hander owns a 5.46 xERA and ranks in the 35th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, right-hander Aaron Civale gets the ball for the Milwaukee Brewers. Civale is 7-8 through 29 starts this season with a 4.48 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. His analytics are also poor, considering the right-hander ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 strikeouts
Willy Adames Over 0.5 hits
We’re also going to fade Kelly in the prop market, as he ranks in the 11th percentile in whiff rate and 20th percentile in strikeout rate. You can currently find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a total he has failed to surpass in six of his past 10 starts.
If we’re fading Kelly in a high-scoring affair, then a highly-correlated outcome would be for members of the Brewers to record some hits. Enter Willy Adames, who boasts a .412 BA through 18 career plate appearances against Kelly.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers odds
Diamondbacks vs Brewers live odds
Diamondbacks vs Brewers opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona -105 | Milwaukee -115
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-210) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+175)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-125) | Under 8 (+105)
Diamondbacks vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a -115 favorite and remains at that price as of late Saturday morning.
- I project this line to shorten, given that the D-backs outrank the Brewers in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
- The total opened at eight and has since been bet up to 8.5.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers trend
There have been nine or more total runs scored in six of Arizona’s past nine games. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Brewers.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, BSWI |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Merrill Kelly (4-0, 4.26 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Aaron Civale (6-8, 4.57 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Brewers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
