We've got plenty of baseball action on Tuesday with a packed MLB betting slate featuring 16 games, including a doubleheader between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers. The first game starts at 3:10 p.m. ET with the D-Backs sending veteran Zach Davies to the mound and the Dodgers replying with rookie Michael Grove.
The World Series favorite Dodgers enter this contest as whopping -230 home favorites with the Over/Under at 9. Here are our best free Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers MLB picks and predictions for September 20.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers best odds
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers picks and predictions
The Over/Under on Grove's pitcher outs total is set at 14.5 today, a number he has only reached once in his brief career. Yes, that happened last week when he pitched five innings against this same club but reports have come out that he'll be followed by another rookie in Ryan Pepiot, who will likely pitch a significant amount innings.
Ryan Pepiot will serve as the extra player in Game 1 of tomorrow’s doubleheader. Grove will start, Pepiot to piggyback. Tyler Anderson starts Game 2. #Dodgers
— J.P. Hoornstra (@jphoornstra) September 19, 2022
Pepiot has better stuff than Grove and while he pitched only two innings in his last outing, that's because he got into trouble when he opened his third inning with back-to-back walks. In his previous six appearances, Pepiot had worked as a starter and had logged at least four innings while throwing at least 80 pitches.
Expect Pepiot to cut into Grove's pitch count and taking the Under on his outs.
My best bet: Michael Grove Under 14.5 outs (-110 at bet365)
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can get a deposit bonus up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The Dodgers have the best record in baseball at 102-44 and have won eight of their last nine contests. L.A. has also owned this NL West series in recent years and has gone 11-1 in the last 12 meetings against Arizona this season.
The Diamondbacks lost 5-2 to the Dodgers last night and are now 3-10 in their last 13 games. However, one of those victories during that span came against the Dodgers last Wednesday when they had the same pitching matchup as this afternoon.
Neither Grove nor Pepiot has looked that impressive in limited MLB appearances this season and Grove wasn't even great at Triple-A Oklahoma City where he pitched to a 4.07 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP across 59 2-3 innings.
Pepiot sizzled at Oklahoma City where he went 9-1 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 90 1-3 innings but his awful control (26 walks through 33 1-3 innings in the bigs) has gotten him into trouble with L.A.
The D-Backs will have Davies on the mound and while the veteran was decent against the Dodgers last Wednesday, he has struggled against them this season, allowing 13 earned runs through 18 2-3 innings.
Arizona also has a significantly worse bullpen with their relievers ranking 26th in the majors in ERA (4.60) and 27th in OBA (.256) while the Dodgers are second in both categories (2.96 ERA with a .207 OBA).
Whoever is on the mound for 'Zona will have a tough time navigating a Dodgers lineup that leads the majors with an OPS of .789, with that number surging to .816 since the All-Star break.
The Diamondbacks are 21st in the majors with an OPS of .693 this year although they have improved that number to .705 (good for 13th in the majors) since the All-Star game.
Over/Under analysis
The betting trends all firmly point towards the Under with the Dodgers 1-6 O/U in their last seven games and the Diamondbacks 1-7 O/U in their previous eight contests. The Under has also cashed in the last seven meetings between these division foes. That said, when you look at the actual matchup today, it's tough to fade the Over.
Grove and Pepiot are very green and shaky. Pepiot has electric stuff, including a plus changeup and improving velocity on his four-seamer, but that's pretty useless if he can't locate his pitches.
Davies has a hard-hit rate and average exit velocity that rank among the top 25th percentile of pitchers but he allows way too much contact resulting in an expected ERA of 4.42. The Diamondbacks bullpen behind him is even worse with a 5.13 collective ERA during the second half of the season.
The star-studded Dodgers lineup is plating an MLB-best 5.86 runs per game since the All-Star break while the Diamondbacks bats have been solid, averaging 4.69 runs/game of their own.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers game info
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Tuesday, September 20, 2022
• First pitch: 3:10 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet LA
Starting pitchers
Zach Davies (2-4, 4.06 ERA): The veteran has a 4.82 FIP with a 1.25 WHIP and an OBA of .237 across 24 starts this season. He allowed four hits and two runs through 5 1-3 innings of work vs. the Dodgers in his last start. In four outings against the Dodgers, Davies has 6.27 ERA with an OBA of .260 in 18 2-3 innings.
Michael Grove (0-0, 4.40 ERA): The rookie has yet to earn a decision after pitching in four games this season with a 4.64 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, and an OBA of .233. His last appearance came against the Diamondbacks last Wednesday when he threw a career-high 77 pitches and limited Arizona to two hits (albeit both solo home runs) through five innings.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Dodgers are 43-11 in their last 54 games vs. NL West foes. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
