This NL West series concludes today with the San Francisco Giants hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks at Oracle Park.
MLB odds have San Francisco as a -142 favorite, and my Diamondbacks vs. Giants prediction is bullish on the betting favorite.
Read on to see why my MLB picks for Thursday, September 3 lean on this pitching matchup.
Diamondbacks vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Giants -1.5 (+160 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Arizona Diamondbacks hand the ball to right-hander Merrill Kelly, who should be a good fade candidate. Through eight starts this season, Kelly possesses a 4.30 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even worse as the right-hander sports a 6.06 xERA and ranks in the 22nd percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and barrel rate. He’s now allowed four or more runs in three consecutive starts, posting a fade-worthy 7.71 ERA in the process.
These woes are likely to continue against the San Francisco Giants, a team Kelly owns a coincidentally equal 7.71 ERA against over the past three meetings. Meanwhile, left-hander Blake Snell takes the mound for San Francisco.
One of the best pitchers in baseball, Snell boasts a 3.56 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through 16 starts. His analytics paint a stronger picture of his dominance, considering that the southpaw boasts a 2.73 xERA and ranks in the 94th percentile or higher in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
Entering this matchup in particularly dominant form, Snell has surrendered two or fewer runs in nine of his past 10 starts. He’s 2-0 over that stretch with a stellar 1.30 ERA. This domination is likely to continue against Arizona, a team Snell is 5-2 against through nine career meetings with a 1.86 ERA.
Diamondbacks vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Giants -1.5
Blake Snell Over 7.5 strikeouts
Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 hits
We’re also going to back Snell in the prop market as he ranks in the 98th percentile in whiff rate and 96th percentile in strikeout rate. You can currently find his strikeout prop at 7.5, a total he has surpassed in six of his past seven starts.
If we’re backing the Giants to win by multiple runs, then we also need some contributions in the hitting department. Enter Mike Yastrzemski, who boasts a .272 xBA, .578 xSLG, and .395 xwOBA through 42 career plate appearances against Kelly.
Yastrzemski has also recorded nine hits over his past nine games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Giants odds
Diamondbacks vs Giants live odds
Diamondbacks vs Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona +120 | San Francisco -142
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-194) | San Francisco -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-122)
Diamondbacks vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- San Francisco opened as a -142 favorite and remains at that price as of early Thursday morning.
- I project this line to widen further, largely due to the pitching matchup.
- The total opened at 7.5 and also remains at that number.
- While the juice is on the Under, I would be surprised if the market moves this number to seven considering that both lineups are capable of putting up runs, despite it being a Snell start.
Diamondbacks vs Giants trend
San Francisco has won by two or more runs in five of Snell’s past seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Giants.
Diamondbacks vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, NBC Sports Bay Area |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Merrill Kelly (4-0, 4.30 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Blake Snell (2-3, 3.56 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Giants latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Giants weather
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