The finale of a three-game NL West series gets underway this afternoon with the San Diego Padres hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. MLB odds have San Diego as a sizable -172 favorite, while the total sits at 8.5.
My Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction is bullish on the favorite, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my free MLB picks for Sunday, July 7.
Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Padres -1.5 (+128 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It has been a terribly difficult campaign for right-hander Ryne Nelson, who gets the ball for the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday. Nelson is 5-6 through 15 appearances on the mound with a fade-worthy 5.42 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are just as poor, considering that the right-hander ranks in the 23rd percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. These woes are likely to continue against the San Diego Padres, a team Nelson is 1-3 against over the past six meetings with a troubling 8.78 ERA and 1.84 WHIP.
San Diego won five of those six meetings, with four of those wins coming by at least a two-run margin.
Following Nelson is an untrustworthy bullpen that ranks in the Bottom 10 of the league in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. The Padres’ relief staff outranks them in each of those three categories.
Not only does San Diego boast the bullpen advantage, but it also will go with the superior starting pitcher in right-hander Dylan Cease. He paces Nelson in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.
Add in home field and the stronger lineup, and the Padres do not possess a single disadvantage in this matchup. San Diego outranks Arizona in hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS, home runs, and stolen bases.
Diamondbacks vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres -1.5
Over 8.5
Jurickson Profar 1+ hits
While San Diego owns every advantage in this matchup, that doesn’t mean that Arizona can’t also put up some runs of its own. Both teams rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and home runs.
If we are backing the Padres to win in a high-scoring game, then a highly-correlated outcome would be for Jurickson Profar to record at least one hit in the process. Profar boasts a .313 average through 18 career plate appearances against Nelson and has recorded at least one hit in 17 of his past 18 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Padres odds
Diamondbacks vs Padres live odds
Diamondbacks vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-154) | San Diego -1.5 (+128)
- Moneyline: Arizona +144 | San Diego -172
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-122)
Diamondbacks vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- San Diego opened as a -172 favorite and remains at that number as of Sunday morning.
- I project this line to move in the Padres’ direction, given all the aforementioned variables.
- This line has bounced between 8 and 8.5, but I believe Over bettors should strike at 8 because it is highly unlikely to drop to 7.5.
Diamondbacks vs Padres trend
San Diego has won 12 of its past 16 games, with 10 of those 12 wins coming by at least a two-run margin. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Padres
Diamondbacks vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Roku |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Ryne Nelson (5-6, 5.42 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Dylan Cease (7-7, 4.24 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Padres latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Padres weather
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