No two words are as beautiful as Game 7, and we have that special game tonight when the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies meet for the right to play the Texas Rangers in the 2023 World Series.
Tonight’s Game 7 also features a pair of pitchers with stellar marks during the postseason: Arizona plans for rookie righty Brandon Pfaadt to make the start, while Philadelphia will counter with lefty Ranger Suarez. Will the Phillies, who have had shorter World Series odds all along, prevail?
I break down the MLB odds and share my best MLB picks and MLB playoff predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Phillies on Tuesday, October 24. Also, be sure to check out our best Bryce Harper prop picks.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies odds
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Game 7 odds
Diamondbacks vs Phillies predictions
The Arizona Diamondbacks faced elimination in Game 6, but righty Merrill Kelly had other ideas. The Snakes lumber delivered against Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola, and the Diamondbacks won another game they weren’t supposed to win, forcing tonight’s Game 7.
Phillies fans watched helplessly as Nola was chased in the fourth. Kelly and the Diamondbacks quieted a Citizens Bank Park crowd that hadn’t seen their team lose at home during October, let alone trail a postseason game this season by two runs.
The Phillies managed six hits in Game 6. Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper went a collective 0-for-9 with three walks as Kelly and a collection of Diamondbacks relievers pitched around the trio, and the rest of the Phillies’ sticks couldn’t deliver.
That won’t be the case tonight, and I expect the Phillies bats — fueled by Citizens Bank Park's raucous crowd — to come alive against red-hot rookie Brandon Pfaadt.
Phaadt has been dynamite during the Arizona playoff run. He pitched a 5 2/3-inning masterpiece against the Phillies in Game 3 and shut out the Los Angeles Dodgers over 4 1/3 in the NLDS. He was roughed up over 2 1/3 during his brief Wild Card start at Milwaukee, and I believe we’ll see that version of Pfaadt instead of the dazzling Game 1 edition tonight.
It’s one thing to pitch a Wild Card game in Milwaukee but quite another to pitch before the Citizens Bank Park crowd, and they will be nuts from about 5:00 p.m. on. Kelly and the Snakes lumber quieted them last night, but they will make life as difficult as possible for the rookie righty.
Although Ranger Suarez didn’t have the best regular season, he did beat the Atlanta Braves twice during the NLDS and threw 5 1/3 shutout frames in the Game 3 loss to Pfaadt at Arizona. The Diamondbacks don't fare well against lefties — 92 wRC+ (23rd in MLB in regular season) and .710 OPS (21st) — and the home crowd will be behind Suarez with every pitch.
Finally, I expect the Phillies to win this game by at least two runs. This is Game 7, and Philadelphia is playing at home, where they were 49-32 during the regular season and are 6-1 during this playoff run. Arizona is playing with house money, and unless Pfaadt is throwing a no-hitter, he’ll be out by the fourth inning. Philadelphia will get an early lead and tack onto it against the mediocre Diamondbacks bullpen.
My best bet: Phillies -1.5 (+115 at FanDuel)
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Diamondbacks vs Phillies same-game parlay
Phillies -1.5
Over 8.5
The Phillies have won six postseason games, each by more than two runs, while the Diamondbacks' three postseason losses were by two or more runs. I really like the Phillies, and we will ride that trend.
Pfaadt has had a terrific postseason, but he allowed 2.7 home runs per nine away innings pitched during the regular season. He’s served up eight bombs over his last 20 2/3 road innings and faces a Phillies team with the sixth-highest home ISO in baseball. The Phillies mash at home and have blasted 23 bombs during their playoff run.
Finally, while Suarez has been great during the postseason, he allowed 1.23 home runs per nine frames at home and has surrendered three homers over his 29 innings at Citizens Bank Park.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Diamondbacks vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
FanDuel opened this game with the Phillies (-162), and because the betting population loves the Phillies tonight, the line has risen to -174. That’s still a decent bet to make if you remember that it takes a $174 stake to win $100, and maybe that’s too much juice.
The run line usually never moves, but the vig will. FanDuel opened -1.5 (+132), and that’s because when the Phillies win, they usually win big. The +132 was a dandy of a price, but we will still take +115 and be happy with better than even money.
FanDuel opened with 8.5 runs, and that number hasn’t budged, but the juice moved towards the Under. FanDuel charged -105 as the opener for the Over 8.5 and has dropped the vig to -102 due to all the money on the Under. Conversely, the Under 8.5 market opened at -118 and is now -120.
One bet I’m leaning toward is the Schwarber home run MLB prop. FanDuel has Schwarber Over 0.5 home runs (+255), and that’s a great price. Schwarber has five bombs during this playoff run, 11 playoff home runs with Philly, and 20 over his postseason career. Pfaadt has served up eight home runs to left-handed hitters on the road this season, and either Schwarber or maybe even Bryce Harper (+280) might come through tonight.
Trend to know
The Diamondbacks are 1-4 in Pfaadts' last five road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
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Diamondbacks vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, October 24, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Starting pitchers
Brandon Pfaadt (0-0, 2.13 ERA): The rookie righty gets the ball in the biggest game of his life. His regular season stats were pedestrian, but Pfaadt has scattered 11 hits with three earned runs with 15 strikeouts over his last 12 2/3 frames.
Ranger Suarez (1-0, 0.64 ERA): Suarez also had spotty regular-season results. However, the Phillies southpaw has come alive during the postseason, allowing one earned run on seven hits, and striking out 13 in 14 1/3 innings this October.
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