The Los Angeles Dodgers (62-43) never got going in a 5-0 loss to the Houston Astros (54-49) on Friday night.
Today’s Game 2 sees Houston as a -135 favorite against rookie starter Justin Wrobleski, and my Dodgers vs. Astros predictions are targeting Yordan Alvarez to do damage.
Find out why in my MLB picks for Saturday, July 27.
Dodgers vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez forecasts for a successful day at the dish on Saturday night. As usual, the 27-year-old has been one of the most effective hitters this season with a 157 wRC+ and .392 wOBA, but allow me to expand on this matchup in particular.
He faces off against Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Justin Wrobleski, who has a respectable 4.40 ERA through his first three starts in the Big Leagues. The Oklahoma State product’s peripherals are far dicier, however.
Wrobleski’s 5.27 xERA and 6.21 FIP both belie his actual ERA. He’s been fortunate to run an unsustainably low .250 BABIP and an artificially high 82.1% left on-base percentage, but the regression monster comes for us all.
Yordan isn’t fearful of this matchup as he’s obliterated LHP this season with a 178 wRC+ and .421 wOBA. He ranks in the 94th percentile or above in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and bat speed, and he shows no signs of slowing down.
The books have priced Alvarez’s total bases prop at 1.5 with +100 odds to the Over. He’s recorded 2+ total bases in five of his last six games against a starting LHP, so I’m investing in the Over.
He’s recorded 2+ total bases in four of his last five games overall and is averaging 2.1 total bases across his last 10 games, making this price a bargain in my opinion.
Dodgers vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases
Justin Wrobleski Under 3.5 strikeouts
Under 9
The Astros are practically immune to strikeouts, posting the league’s lowest K rate (17.4%) against LHP. Wrobleski projects to run a K rate just above 20% in his rookie season, so this will be a difficult matchup for him to rack up the punchouts.
While I’m bullish on Alvarez’s odds of offensive success on Saturday, questions remain about the other hitters partaking in the game. L.A.’s already top-heavy offense looks severely diminished, with Freddie Freeman likely out of the lineup again and Mookie Betts still working his way back to health.
Houston has been dead-set on the Under at 41-58 O/U this season while L.A. is 22-29 O/U on the road. These teams tend to play in low-scoring games against one another, cashing the Under in four of their last five matchups at Minute Maid Park.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Astros odds
Dodgers vs Astros live odds
Dodgers vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-175) | Houston -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +115 | Houston -140
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Dodgers vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- Ronel Blanco gets the start for the Astros, and they’ve been a winning team (13-6) with him on the mound.
- The Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 games against a starting LHP.
- The Dodgers have cashed their five innings (F5) team total Under in nine of their last 15 games. With Freeman likely out of the lineup again, L.A. only has one hitter (Shohei Ohtani) with an OPS above .780 against RHP since 2022.
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Dodgers vs Astros trend
Yordan Alvarez has recorded 2+ total bases in five of his last six games against a starting LHP. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Astros
Dodgers vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Jeff Wrobleski (0-1, 4.40 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Ronel Blanco (9-5, 2.75 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Astros latest injuries
Dodgers vs Astros weather
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