The Los Angeles Dodgers will look to build on their win in the series opener when they face off against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Saturday.
The Dodgers (10-10) opened the four-game series with a 6-2 win on Thursday over the Cubs (11-7). Chicago had won five of its last six — including two of three in Los Angeles — before Thursday’s loss.
With both teams starting southpaws on Friday, the second game of the series could come down to who matches up better against lefties. We’ll take a look at how that impacts this matchup in our free MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs Cubs on April 21.
Dodgers vs Cubs odds
Dodgers vs Cubs predictions
So far this year, the Cubs and the Dodgers have split four games. That’s a big win for Chicago, especially considering three of those games were in Los Angeles. Few expected the Cubs to contend for a postseason position heading into this year, while the Dodgers were among the favorites to win the World Series in 2023.
The Cubs have outperformed expectations on both sides of the ball. The Chicago lineup has put up a .787 OPS, fifth-best in MLB. Chicago has also pitched to a 3.40 ERA, ranking seventh in the league this season.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers staff hasn’t kept up with its outstanding lineup. With Los Angeles putting up a .797 OPS — second only to the Tampa Bay Rays otherworldly .902 — you would expect the Dodgers to be dominating their opposition. But a mediocre 4.09 ERA has kept opponents in games, and despite a relatively manageable schedule outside of a home series against the New York Mets, the Dodgers find themselves at .500 after 20 games.
The Cubs have survived tough series against the Dodgers and the Seattle Mariners to find themselves with a solid record midway through April. Whether or not Chicago can keep this up, it’s earned its mark so far this year, playing to a strong +35 run differential over the first 18 games.
The Chicago offense has been particularly effective against left-handed pitching. The Cubs are hitting .311 with an .829 OPS against southpaws this year. That’s an increase of over 30 points in batting average and 48 points in OPS when compared to their numbers against righties so far on the season.
On the other hand, the Dodgers have struggled against lefties. While the Los Angeles offense has been able to produce plenty of runs overall, it’s hitting just .203 with a .772 OPS against southpaws, compared to a .242 average and a .797 OPS against right-handed pitching.
Those numbers are relevant for Friday’s game, when both teams are starting lefties. Without a doubt, the Dodgers are throwing the better pitcher to start the game, as Julio Urias is a stud, while Drew Smyly is merely serviceable for the Cubs. However, the dramatic splits suggest that Chicago should be able to get something started against Urias, while the Dodgers may struggle to string together hits against Smyly.
When you consider the fact that the Cubs are at home for this game, it’s hard to see them as a significant underdog to a team that’s underperforming this year. With the Cubs in a better position to take advantage of their opponent’s lefthanded starter, I’m happy to take the generous odds on Chicago as a home underdog.
My best bet: Cubs moneyline (+148 at Caesars)
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Dodgers vs Cubs moneyline analysis
Chicago opened Friday’s game as a +138 underdog. The number has moved slightly further in Los Angeles’ favor, with the overnight number settling at around +140 for the Cubs. However, you can find odds as long as +148 on Chicago, while the Dodgers are fetching -160 at best as the favorite.
The Dodgers have drastically underperformed this season on the moneyline, while the Cubs have made over six units for bettors early in the season. That follows for both teams, as Los Angeles is an underperforming World Series contender, while the Cubs have been winning games despite expectations that they would likely finish under .500 on the year.
The pitching matchup may be what’s tilting this game in Los Angeles’ favor. Urias has gone 3-1 with a 1.90 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP on the year, while Smyly is 1-1 with a 4.70 ERA. But with the Cubs performing far better against lefthanded pitching this season, this pitching matchup may not be nearly as lopsided as it looks at first glance.
With Chicago’s lineup more effective against lefthanded pitching, and the Cubs playing at home, I think this game is far closer to a tossup than the consensus number suggests. I’m backing the Cubs on the moneyline in Friday’s matchup.
Dodgers vs Cubs Over/Under analysis
Most books opened Friday’s game with a 9.5-run total. That number is still the most common line out there, with the consensus Over/Under settling at 9.5 as of late Thursday. Some books are leaning towards the Under as the favorite, however, and you can get +100 odds on the Over if you want to bet that side of the line.
That makes sense given the two powerhouse lineups at play in this game. The Cubs are averaging 5.82 runs per game, while the Dodgers are scoring 5.21 runs per game. These teams both boast potent offenses that have been among the best in the league in the early going this season.
The pitching matchup shouldn’t impact this dynamic too much. While Urias is a strong pitcher, the Cubs have been deadly against left-handed pitching, and they should at least challenge the Los Angeles ace. Meanwhile, while the Dodgers aren’t as effective against southpaws, they’re hardly anemic no matter who the pitcher is, and Smyly won’t be able to shut them down.
In other words, I’m expecting plenty of runs in this game, with both teams contributing to the total and neither starter doing enough to shut down the opposing lineup. I’m leaning towards the Over even at this high number, especially since we can get even money if we shop around for the best line on this game.
Dodgers vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Friday, April 21, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Dodgers vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
Julio Urias (3-1, 1.90 ERA): Coming off another excellent season in 2022, Urias has continued his dominance of opposing lineups this year. So far, Urias is 3-1 with a 1.01 WHIP and an incredible 8.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio, having only given up three bases on balls this season. However, the Cubs were able to get to him in his last start, scoring three runs (two earned) in 5.2 innings against Urias last Sunday.
Drew Smyly (1-1, 4.70 ERA): Now a veteran lefthander, the 33-year-old Smyly is in his second year with the Cubs. He was a solid option last year for Chicago, going 7-8 with a solid 3.47 ERA while pitching for the seventh team in 10 MLB seasons. Smyly performed well against the Dodgers last Sunday, going 5.2 innings and giving up just one run on four hits while picking up the win.
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The Cubs are 4-0 in their last four games against left-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Cubs
