On Saturday, the struggling Chicago Cubs will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in a doubleheader. While the Cubs have lost five of their last six games, the Dodgers come into this one having won three in a row and four of their last five.
Will Chicago find a way to earn a victory in the first of Saturday’s two-game set? Continue reading our Dodgers vs. Cubs MLB picks and predictions for our favorite Saturday, May 7 bets.
Dodgers vs Cubs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
After opening as -221 favorites, it has become even tougher to back the Dodgers. Los Angeles is now as high as -250 on one sportsbook, with the best price being -227.
As for the total, it took quite some time for this one to become available, but the number first opened at 7 with juice on the Under.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Dodgers vs Cubs predictions
Picks made on 5/7/2022 at 9:05 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Dodgers vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Saturday, May 7, 2022
• First pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
• TV: SNLA, MARQ
Dodgers vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
Clayton Kershaw (3-0, 2.35 ERA): In Kershaw’s most recent start, the lefty gave up just one earned run and struck out seven in six innings against the Detroit Tigers. The Dodgers ended up losing that game, but Kershaw has allowed one or fewer earned runs in three of his four starts this year. He’s still an absolute force on the mound, even if he has lost a little over the years.
Drew Smyly (1-3, 5.50 ERA): Smyly isn’t going to go out there and shut an opponent down for seven innings, but he’s very capable of keeping his team in games for five frames or so. The lefty hasn’t pitched more than five innings all year, but he has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his four starts. The veteran doesn’t really make batters swing and miss very often, but he is good at pitching to contact.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Dodgers: David Price P (Out), Blake Treinen P (Out), Andrew Heaney P (Out), Trevor Bauer P (Out).
Cubs: Ethan Roberts P (Out), Clint Frazier OF (Out), Alec Mills P (Out), Wade Miley P (Out), Andrelton Simmons SS (Out), Adbert Alzolay P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is also 9-3-2 in the Cubs’ last 14 games as underdogs. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Cubs
Dodgers vs Cubs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
The other night, Kershaw was mic’d up in Los Angeles’ national television game against the San Francisco Giants, and the four-time Cy Young Award winner noted that he doesn’t like pitching at Wrigley Field. The stats definitely show the reason why, as the lefty is 1-3 with a 4.74 ERA in four career starts at the iconic ballpark. Considering Kershaw clearly isn’t very comfortable pitching here, it isn’t hard to see the Cubs as decent value in this spot.
The Cubs have been pretty solid against left-handed pitching this season, as they are 12th in the league in on-base plus slugging against lefties. Chicago is also ninth in MLB in isolated power against southpaws, which means the Cubs come up with big hits against lefties somewhat frequently.
Keep a close eye on Patrick Wisdom and Ian Happ in this game. Both players have some impressive splits against lefties early this season, so they could end up providing some production for Chicago bettors. Wisdom has been especially dangerous against lefties, as he’s batting .280 with two doubles, three homers and six RBIs against them.
Smyly obviously isn’t the type of pitcher that you want to have to rely on to out-duel Kershaw, but the veteran doesn’t exactly have to. All the Cubs will be hoping for from him is about five innings in which he gives up three or so runs. If he can do that, Chicago will have a real shot at keeping this close. Ultimately, the Cubs hitting the run line just doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility, even if there is a big talent gap between these teams.
Prediction: Cubs +1.5 (+115 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
With this not being one of the ballparks where Kershaw is at his absolute best, the lefty will probably end up giving up a few runs here. The southpaw is still a great pitcher at this point in his career, but he is a lot more beatable than he used to be. The Cubs might not be winning games very frequently, but there’s no denying that they can be productive at the plate against lefties. The numbers speak for themselves and they’ll look to plate a few here, even if it’ll be a little chilly and windy for this game.
On the other hand, it’d be downright shocking if Smyly didn’t give up a few runs in this game. The veteran just doesn’t really have it in him to shut down one of the best lineups in baseball, and this total should ultimately come down to the bullpens. While Los Angeles has one of the best in baseball, it’s a lot harder for relievers to get the job done in road games. With that said, the Cubs could rattle one of them and help Over bettors cash in.
Also, the Over is 9-3 in Chicago’s last 12 games against teams with winning percentages of 60% or better.
Prediction: Over 7 (-105 at DraftKings)
Best bet
While Kershaw is a borderline ace — even as he begins to get up there in age — the Over is 5-0-2 in his last seven starts. Not all of that is on him, as the lefty has had some big performances this season, but he has been lit up at Wrigley Field before. Perhaps he won’t get absolutely shelled in this one, but three or four runs from Chicago seems very doable.
As for Smyly, who has very limited upside as a starter, the sky is the limit for how many runs the Dodgers are capable of scoring against him if he doesn’t have it going today.
Overall, if you’re looking for something to back in this game, you’re going to want to go with the Over. The Cubs have a chance to get to Kershaw here, which is why the run line isn’t the worst option. But seeing these teams playing a high-scoring game is the most likely outcome.
Pick: Over 7 (-105 at DraftKings)
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