The Los Angeles Dodgers set the tone in their series opener with the Arizona Diamondbacks last night in a 14-1 victory. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are just raking right now for the Dodgers, who have the best record in the National League at 30-14.
Highly-regarded pitching prospect Ryan Pepiot will make his third MLB start and second versus the light-hitting Diamondbacks. He'll oppose lefty Madison Bumgarner, who also saw the Dodgers two weeks ago.
Can Arizona improve on its 14-40 SU record versus the Dodgers over the last 54 meetings or are the Dodgers just too confident and talented to lose to an overachieving Arizona team? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers have moved from -180 to -150 as L.A. pushed original starter Tony Gonsolin to tomorrow and inserted rookie Ryan Pepiot for today. The visitors closed as -185 favorites yesterday in the series opener. The total sits at 10 and leans to the Under after last night’s total closed at 9.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks predictions
Picks made on 5/27/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Dodgers vs Diamondbacks game info
• Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Friday, May 27, 2022
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet LA, Bally Sports Arizona
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks betting preview
Starting pitchers
Ryan Pepiot (0-0, 3.86 ERA): Coming into the season, Pepiot was the Dodgers’ No. 6 prospect and is starting to get his feet wet in the Majors. He’s made two starts this season and has given up just three hits over seven innings of work. Arizona tagged him for three runs in four innings his last time out as his command is a serious issue. The fastball/changeup/slider pitcher sits in the mid-90s with his 4-seamer.
Madison Bumgarner (2-2, 2.76 ERA): The Arizona lefty owns a very respectable 2.76 ERA this season but he’s struck out just 28 batters over 42-plus innings while walking 14. He’s also given up nine runs over his last three starts (19 1-3 innings). The veteran is throwing 43% cutters and opponents are hitting just .218 off of it. Bumgarner is not missing bats (seventh percentile in Whiff rate) and faces a Dodgers lineup that is hot but hits lefties at a league-average rate.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Dodgers: Max Muncy IF (Doubtful), Tommy Kahnle RP (Out), Blake Treinen RP (Out).
Diamondbacks: Nick Ahmed SS (Out), Carson Kelly C (Out), Jose Herrera C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Dodgers are 13-5 SU in the last 18 meetings in Arizona. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Dodgers are currently in a 31-game stretch spanning 30 days, and although the schedule and some injuries are making things difficult, this is still the best team in the NL that's 10-2 SU in its last 10 and 9-4 SU in its last 13 road games.
Last night, the Dodgers laid an absolute spanking on the Diamondbacks and if the sticks are still hot today, it could be another long day for the home side, especially with the roof possibly open at Chase Field, which would favor the offense with the heat and humidity.
Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts led the way offensively last night and finished a combined 7-for-10 with 13 total bases. The Dodgers finished with 24 total hits and every starter in the lineup finished with at least two hits, which was just the second time that’s happened since the franchise moved to Los Angeles back in 1958. If you think hitting is contagious, then the L.A. offense is in great shape tonight.
Freeman’s .312 average paces the team, and multi-hit games have been the norm for the first baseman who has seven three-hit games already this season. Betts has played a great complement to the former MVP as the outfielder is 33-for-93 this month with nine homers and sports a season OPS of .978.
Mookie Betts since May 4 (MLB ranks)
— Blake Harris (@BlakeHarrisTBLA) May 25, 2022
? 9 home runs (1st)
? 24 RBI (1st)
? 23 runs (1st)
? .795 SLG (1st)
? 27 hits (2nd)
? 1.211 OPS (3rd) pic.twitter.com/LYp8N6FMkL
Facing this highly confident order is veteran lefty Madison Bumgarner, whose cutter has been tough on opposing batters, as they're hitting just .218 against it. Bumgarner had a 1.50 ERA in his first six starts to the season but since then owns a 4.42 ERA over his last three turns. The Dodgers sit in the middle of the league in hitting left-handed pitching but also score more runs per game on the road than any other team in baseball.
Looking for his first MLB win is rookie pitcher Ryan Pepiot, who has serious control issues (eight walks in seven innings) but will likely have a short leash and will give way to the best bullpen in the National League. L.A. relievers have a 3.04 ERA and are fresh tonight after the B bullpen got most of the work last night.
The Dodgers’ advantage in the later innings is huge as Arizona’s bullpen has a tough matchup tonight. Even their closer, Mark Melancon, owns a 7.04 ERA. Only the Rockies’ bullpen has a worse ERA in the NL than the Diamondbacks.
Max Muncy’s likely absence doesn’t move this line for us, as he was hitting just .150 before dealing with this current elbow injury. Gavin Lux filling in might even be better for the visitor's offense.
The home side has the advantage in starting pitching but the Dodgers have the edge in pretty much every other category. The hitting conditions also favor the visitors and with the total set at 10, the books are expecting some runs. We’re assuming they’re coming from the team that leads all of baseball in runs per game at 5.68.
Prediction: Dodgers moneyline (-150 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Neither team has been profitable to the Over this season but that won’t stop us from laying a little on this double-digit total. When Derek Carty, the mind behind the BAT projections, tells you Chase Field has the best hitting conditions on the board today, we listen.
Arizona should be able to get a ton of traffic on the bases in the early innings as Pepiot has not figured out his command in the big leagues. Of the 156 pitches thrown in his two MLB appearances, only 56% were strikeouts. He saw this same Arizona lineup last time out and walked three and gave up a homer over five innings. The Dodgers still won that game 7-6.
The Dodgers saw Bumgarner 11 days ago and took three runs off the lefty with six hits over five innings. The Over has hit in all four of Bumgarner’s last starts. If he can’t get deep, the Dodgers will get to tee off on one of the worst bullpens in baseball, and being the visitors, they will get at least 27 outs.
With optimal hitting conditions thanks to high temperatures and humidity with an open roof and the highest-scoring offense in baseball, this double-digit total isn’t too high for us to hit the Over.
Prediction: Over 10 (-105 at bet365)
Best bet
We’re taking L.A.'s bullpen out of the equation here (even with some key injuries) and looking at the first five innings Over 5.5. If the Dodgers can get to Bum Bum for at least three over five innings, Pepiot’s command issues should keep Arizona with runners on base early.
The rookie right-hander is also getting a fair-sized leash in terms of pitches and should see 80-90 pitches again today, which is great for the Over as this L.A. bullpen will likely clean up any mess left from the rookie.
Hitting conditions will also be optimal in the earlier innings with the temperature and humidity decreasing as the game progresses.
The Dodgers’ bats are absolutely locked in right now after a 24-hit, 14-run performance last night and Betts and Freeman could do a lot of damage tonight if the ball is carrying a little further at Chase Field.
Pick: First five innings Over 5.5 (-105 at bet365)
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