Dodgers vs Giants Predictions, Picks, Odds: Cobb Secures Swings and Misses in San Fran

The final game of a three-game series between the rival Los Angeles Dodgers (6-6) and the San Francisco Giants (5-6) gets underway Wednesday night at Oracle Park.

They split the first two games, with the Dodgers dominating Game 1 by a score of 9-1, and the Giants pitching a 5-0 shutout last night in Game 2.

Both rivals would love to claim victory in the first series of the 2023 season against one another, but only one will have that right. Which team will it be? Check out our MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs Giants on Wednesday, April 12 below to find out.

Dodgers vs Giants odds

Dodgers vs Giants predictions

It’s always important to check the weather in games being played at Oracle Park. It’s not quite as impactful as, say, Wrigley Field, but the wind patterns can still make a big difference considering the field is placed right by the bay.

Wednesday night’s weather forecast calls for temperatures of 56 degrees at the time of the first pitch with winds of 20.8 mph blowing out to right-center field. That could turn a few fly balls into home runs, which was the case on Monday night when the game went over the total of 7.5. Four home runs were carried by the wind over the fence that night. 

I would normally target the Under here in what should be a pitching duel between the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw and the Giants’ Alex Cobb, but I’ll instead look elsewhere for my best bet. Even though there will be two quality pitchers on the mound for Wednesday’s rubber match, the wind has me spooked from playing the total at all. 

Instead, let’s look at the prop market. Cobb’s strikeout prop is set at 5.5 with plus money on the Over, which stands out considering he’s struck out six batters in each of his first two appearances this season. 

After pitching mostly to contact to start his career, the right-hander noticeably changed his approach heading into the 2021 season, when he posted a 24.9% strikeout rate. It was only the third time in his 10-year career that he’d eclipsed a 20% strikeout rate, and the 24.9% was a career-high. He hasn’t looked back since, posting a 23.9% strikeout rate a year ago in his first with the Giants. It’s a small sample size, but he’s up to 27.3% so far this season. 

Cobb has typically been more of a strikeout pitcher at home, posting a 21.6% strikeout rate at home in his career, which is significantly higher than his 18.3% strikeout rate on the road. 

I expect him to look to avoid pitching to contact against a slugging Dodgers lineup with the wind blowing out at 20 mph. While the Dodgers have a dangerous lineup, they aren’t immune to being punched out, as evidenced by their 23.7% strikeout rate this season.

My best bet: Cobb Over 5.5 strikeouts (+110)

Dodgers vs Giants moneyline analysis

This game will be a rubber match to settle who comes out on top of this three-game series. 

The Dodgers have typically dominated this matchup, winning 19 of the past 26 meetings overall. When isolating for games being played at Oracle Park, they have won eight of the last nine meetings in a display of utter superiority. 

San Francisco has typically performed best at the end of a series, winning seven of its last eight during Game 3 of a series. The Giants have also performed well against the NL West, going 13-5 across their last 18 such games. They haven’t been able to find much consistency, however, going 0-6 in their last six games following a win. 

After opening at -190, the line on the Dodgers has come down to between -155 and -165 depending on the book. There’s some love for the home team in this spot, and I can understand why. 

Cobb has been an underrated pitched for a while now, and posted an impressive 3.15 xERA and 2.80 FIP last season to pair with a superb 3.7% barrel rate. The Giants have been so miserable against left-handed pitching (more on that later) that it’ll keep me from making a play on their moneyline, but this line does still somewhat appeal as Cobb is someone I’d like to back in general this season.

Dodgers vs Giants Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 8 before dropping down to 7.5 at current.

I am mostly in agreement with the line movement considering the two starting pitchers for this matchup, but I have to caution that the weather can mean everything in this spot. There will be sustained wins of 17-20 mph throughout the game, with gusts of up to 29 mph. That’s certainly a significant amount of wind and can turn fly balls into home runs in a hurry considering it’s blowing out to right-center field. 

Kershaw will still look to find success against a Giants lineup that has been completely futile against southpaws. San Francisco ranks 29th in both wRC+ (47) and OPS (.529) against left-handers while posting an astonishingly high 38.7% strikeout rate that is tops in the majors by nearly four and a half percentage points. 

Cobb was due for positive regression this season after posting strong underlying numbers a year ago, albeit without finding much outward success. The Dodgers' lineup may not be as potent as it was in years past, but this is still a dangerous bunch that ranks fourth in wRC+ (121) and second in OPS (.831). 

Dodgers vs Giants game info

Dodgers vs Giants betting preview

Starting pitchers

Clayton Kershaw (1-1, 3.75 ERA): Kershaw’s marvelous career with the Dodgers continues as he enters his age-35 season for the boys in blue. Both of his prior outings this season have come against the Arizona Diamondbacks, to mixed results. He allowed just one earned across six innings in the opener while grabbing a win, but then allowed four earned on seven hits and two walks across six more innings in a loss in his second appearance.

Alex Cobb (0-1, 2.53 ERA): Cobb is off to a strong start this year. He lasted just 3 2/3 innings in the opener, albeit in a tough matchup against the New York Yankees in which he surrendered just one earned. Then, he tossed seven strong innings against the Kansas City Royals while allowing just two earned, but still suffered a loss as his team did not provide ample run support. 

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Alex Cobb has thrown at least six strikeouts in each of his two appearances this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Giants

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