The Los Angeles Dodgers will be looking for the four-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants this afternoon at Oracle park following a 3-0 blanking as -165 favorites last night. Los Angeles has outscored San Fran 20-7 in the series, and with the lack of scoring from the home side, combined with the setting and a matinee, I’m not expecting a lot of action on the bases today.
Find out where my best value lies in today’s free MLB betting picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Giants.
Dodgers vs Giants odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers opened as -210 favorites and the line has stayed put overnight. This is the shortest they have been in this series as they closed as -165 favorites last night, -150 on Tuesday, and -140 on Monday. The total sits at 8.0 after closing at 7.0 last night.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Dodgers vs Giants predictions
Picks made on 8/04/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
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Dodgers vs Giants game info
• Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Thursday, August 4, 2022
• First pitch: 3:45 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Bay Area, SNLA
Dodgers vs Giants betting preview
Starting pitchers
Clayton Kershaw (7-3, 2.66 ERA): Kershaw will wrap up a dominating series this afternoon. The Giants did tag him for four runs two starts ago, but the lefty had some control issues in the game that resulted in the uncommon poor outing. He’s allowed just 14 walks and six homers this season over 81-plus innings. THE BAT has him projected to go six innings today vs. a lineup that stranded 10 on base yesterday and will likely have a weaker lineup with the quick turnaround.
Jakob Junis (4-2, 2.78 ERA): Junis will try to slow down the best offense in the National League as he’ll be making his fourth start since June 10 after a hamstring injury sidelined him. He’s been effective with a 1.05 WHIP but since returning from injury, he hasn’t recorded more than 13 outs. He saw just 18 batters in his last outing and needed 74 pitches to do so. His 2.78 ERA is quite misleading as he is a career 4.61 ERA pitcher with an xERA of 4.05 this season. He’s stranding runners at an 84.6% rate which is unsustainable as well as his .256 BABIP but Oracle Park should help him out today.
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Giants are 4-0 in Junis' last four starts with four days of rest. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Giants
Dodgers vs Giants picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
Bettors got a great price on the Dodgers last night after it closed at -165. Now with Clayton Kershaw on the mound, this line has moved to -210 which is what I thought yesterday’s line should have been closer to.
To be honest, there isn’t much of a difference in this afternoon’s Kershaw vs. Jakob Junis matchup than yesterday’s Julio Urias vs. Alex Cobb one. Kershaw saw the Giants two starts ago at home and closed as a -220 favorite, which makes me think today’s line is 15 to 20 points too short.
San Francisco isn’t even a tough team to convince me on the run line today.
Kershaw has struggled slightly vs. this lineup this year with two starts and a pair of abbreviated starts. The southpaw has failed to record 15 outs in just three of 14 starts this year: Once in Colorado and twice vs. the Giants.
He is still an elite pitcher but is being priced heavily into this matchup and comes in with back-to-back rough starts — allowing nine runs over his last two outings. The spin on his fastball has dropped slightly over the last three starts and he isn’t a pitcher I’m laying today’s tax on, especially when I have it priced 15 points the other way.
The Giants may be down 3-0 in the series, but they have been decent at clustering hits together despite scoring just seven runs. Since Monday, they’re 6-for-18 with runners in scoring position and outhit Los Angeles eight to six in yesterday’s 3-0 loss.
Another big advantage the home side will have today is the Dodgers’ bullpen has been overused with all the winning. Setup man, Evan Phillips, has pitched on back-to-back days and closer Craig Kimbrel might not be available thanks to a 21-pitch performance last night. Middle reliever Yency Almonte has also pitched three times in four days.
The Giants' bullpen is fully rested and can eat middle innings with their best arms. I’m not getting greedy here and taking the Giants +1.5.
Prediction: Giants +1.5 (+105 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
I loved the Under 7.0 yesterday and was very surprised to see today’s total at 8.0 instead of 7.5.
Kershaw hasn’t been his best vs. the Giants, but the results haven’t been awful — 1-1 Over/Under this season. The total of 8 is giving us plenty of room here in today’s best home run suppressing park while Los Angeles has some elite middle relievers who can come in and throw effective innings if Kershaw falters.
Jakob Junis is a pitcher that is likely to regress to a worse ERA, but Oracle should help keep those unsustainable BABIP and LOB percentages in check today. He’ll likely see some bench bats in the lineup this afternoon, as Dave Roberts could easily give some veterans a day off with a big series vs. the Padres kicking off Friday.
Over the series’ first three games, both bullpens have a combined 1.92 ERA with 12 hits allowed over 23 1-3 innings and a 16/3 K/BB ratio. Scoring late in this series has not been a common occurrence.
With afternoon lineups that tend to be weaker, Oracle park doing its thing, and a pair of bullpens that have been throwing up donuts, I’m confidently hitting this Under for the second game in a row.
Prediction: Under 8 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
THE BAT has Junis to throw 90 pitches today, which is a great projection as he has thrown tossed 32, 62, and 74 pitches in consecutive starts since returning from injury.
The right-hander has solid CSW numbers with a 31% rate on the season. His 21% called strike rate is the third-best percentage in all of baseball for starters with at least 50 innings of work.
Looking at Junis’ most recent starts, as most recreational bettors do, tells a story of a pitcher who is unlikely to top 3.5 strikeouts, but Junis was stretching himself out and today he should have close to full leash in a hitter’s park.
He struck out five L.A. batters over five innings in the start before he hit the IL and posted a CSW of 30% in that game. Joey Gallo and Cody Bellinger possibly getting into the lineup would be a huge boost for this Over 3.5.
Seventy points are pretty heavy on the vig, but this number should certainly be 4.5. THE BAT is projecting nearly 5.00 punchouts for Junis with the Over 3.5 -170 implying roughly 4.3 strikeouts.
Jakob Junis Prop: Over 3.5 strikeouts (-170)
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