The Los Angeles Dodgers bounced back in a big way Wednesday night, picking up an 8-4 win over the lowly Miami Marlins.
My Dodgers vs. Marlins predictions see value in backing L.A. to put together another strong effort en route to a series win.
Let’s dive into why with my September 19 MLB picks.
Dodgers vs Marlins prediction
My best bet
Edward Cabrera Under 15.5 outs (-130 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Edward Cabrera generally does not give the Miami Marlins much length in his starts. He’s averaged just 14.8 outs per game this season and has pitched five innings or fewer 56% of the time.
Control is arguably the biggest thing holding the young right-hander back. He is inconsistent with his pitch location and throws balls at an above-average rate with nearly 39% of his pitches going outside of the zone, a number that soars to 45% when excluding pitches that are put in play.
That’s not a problem you want to have against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who can run up a pitch count in a hurry. They rank fifth in walk rate vs. right-handed pitchers and will patiently wait for opponents to come to them.
They also make pitchers pay for missing their spots because, despite all the injuries they’ve had to deal with, the Dodgers sit third in homers against righties this year.
Los Angeles is as healthy as at any point all season — offensively, anyway. The lineup is loaded with firepower and batters who bring a patient approach to the plate, as each of their projected Top-7 hitters has a walk rate above 8% vs. righties — and four earn free passes more than 11% of the time.
Cabrera made a start against the Dodgers earlier this season and recorded only six outs before being pulled.
I don’t expect his out total to come in that low again but don’t see him lasting more than five innings.
Shohei Ohtani pick: Stacking bases
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (-102 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
Shohei Ohtani is a bases machine. He has averaged 2.4 per game and cleared his line 55% of the time. His success rate is higher on the road, where he’s managed to hit at a 58% clip.
Ohtani recorded only one base in Wednesday’s blowout win over the Marlins, but we can expect him to be more involved this time around.
Ohtani has posted a .300 average and absurdly high .386 ISO vs. righties. He’s consistently getting on base and generating an unmatched level of power — even Aaron Judge (.348) can’t match Ohtani’s ISO against right-handed arms.
Ohtani’s only failed to clear his total bases line in consecutive games once over the past 30 games. Based on that trend, we should expect a quick turnaround following a quiet night at the dish.
Dodgers vs Marlins same-game parlay (SGP)
Edward Cabrera Under 15.5 outs
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases
Dodgers moneyline
The Dodgers are an elite squad with a lot to play for — they’re just one game behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the race for the top spot in the NL — while the Marlins are only better than a historically bad Chicago White Sox team.
With edges across the board, I like the Dodgers to grab another needed win.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Marlins odds
Dodgers vs Marlins live odds
Dodgers vs Marlins opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -190 | Miami +160
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (-115) | Miami +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Dodgers vs Marlins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened as -185 favorites at Pinnacle and currently have a -210 price tag attached.
- While we’ve seen a ton of movement on the moneyline, that hasn’t been the case with the total. Over backers had to lay -107 at Pinnacle upon opening. The number sits at -109 right now.
- The Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 70 games (+18.90 Units / 25% ROI).
- The Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 42 games (+4.20 Units / 6% ROI).
Dodgers vs Marlins trend
Shohei Ohtani has recorded 32 total bases over his past 14 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Marlins.
Dodgers vs Marlins game info
| Location: | loanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, Bally Florida |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Jack Flaherty (12-6, 2.86 ERA) |
| Marlins starting pitcher: | Edward Cabrera (4-6, 4.88 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Marlins latest injuries
Dodgers vs Marlins weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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