Dodgers vs Padres Predictions, Picks, Odds: Mediocre Pitchers Get Mashed

Another Sunday, another primetime affair with serious postseason implications. This time it will feature the third of a four-game set between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.

The pair have split the first two games of the series after San Diego doubled down on its playoff push at the trade deadline, now sitting just three games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. For L.A. — after trailing the Arizona Diamondbacks in the West for a significant portion of the season — now holds a three-game lead atop the division. 

I've dug into the MLB odds for this matchup to bring you my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for the Padres vs. Dodgers on Sunday, August 6.

Dodgers vs Padres odds

Dodgers vs Padres predictions

This series was do-or-die for the San Diego Padres. They were at home, had a rest advantage, and had their two best pitchers going against two Dodger rookies. In actuality, they needed to win both of those head-to-head matchups, and because they split, more pressure is added to tonight.

I'm interested in quite a few options. There's tons of value with two mediocre pitchers at best taking the mound who both can have high variance in their performance. The strongest play on the board for me is the Over, which I'm grabbing at 9.5 over at DraftKings for -110.

Let's start with a few situational aspects. The first two games of this series have both gone Over, which went counter to the recent head-to-head trends when these two met. That's more in line with what we'll see from both sides down the stretch.

The Padres were due for some positive regression, and the Los Angeles Dodgers will be forced to win games with their offense. The other notable here is the conditions in Petco Park. It will be hot, winds will blow out to the right field, and the ball should have no trouble carrying against two flyball pitchers.

Lance Lynn and Rich Hill are mediocre, and the fact that both were deadline moves for two potential playoff teams speaks to the scarcity of quality starting pitching in the league right now.

Hill is a low-velocity lefty who throws a ton of breaking balls. The Dodgers have yet to face him this season, but they project well. L.A. has the fifth most runs in the majors against left-handed pitchers and has a few players that rake against them, including Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts.

Those two batters are first and second among players with at least 100 plate appearances in ISO power against left-handed hurlers this season. Betts, in particular, has a great matchup here. He has the highest run value against Hill's most preferred pitch (curveball) on the Dodgers' roster and the third-highest hard-hit rate. I'm also placing a unit on him to go Over 1.5 bases for -125 at FanDuel.

On the other side is Lance Lynn, who has been a candle this season. The ERA is unlucky, but you can only run from that luck so much, with a number approaching nearly seven. The totality of Lynn's issues is the hard-hit ball. Any metric you want to look at that references a hard-hit rate is an ugly number. That includes a barrel rate that sets in the Bottom 10% of baseball.

I'm also palcing a half unit on a more unheralded player in Ji-Man Choi, to go long at +500 at FanDuel. He has the highest hard-hit rate on the Padres lineup against the four-seam fastball. Beyond this, there are a host of players in tonight's lineup that hit the fastball well, and that's a pitch that Lynn leans on the most. I expect them to do enough to take advantage of those issues and get this one Over.

My best bet: Over 9.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Dodgers vs Padres same-game parlay

Over 9.5

Lyn Over 5.5 Ks

Betts Over 1.5 TB

+475 at bet365

I'm taking my best bet and making it the staple of the same-game parlay. I'm also going to add Mookie Betts Over 1.5 bases. I spoke briefly about it above, but Betts' dominance against the curveball cannot be ignored. Furthermore, he has the second-highest isolated power against left-handed pitchers in the league. It certainly wouldn't shock me if Mookie could go yard tonight, but I like this value better. Betts has gone Over 1.5 bases in five straight games, and in four of those, he has multiple hits.

I'm finishing things off with an undervalued prop in Lynn Over strikeouts. It's the trickiest because Lynn could quickly get run from the game. However, if he can stay competitive, he should be able to exceed this number. For as many issues as Lynn has had this season, he still has been able to create an above-average whiff rate. He's getting a matchup against a team that strikes out at an average clip, with nearly nine per game. With everything status quo, this is a routine number for Lynn to eclipse tonight. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Dodgers vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I want to avoid picking a side on either of these teams to win tonight, so I won't. I can't trust either pitcher enough to back them comfortably. 

There's the slightest of leans for Lance Lynn. He can still collect outs at a high clip when he can avoid the hard-hit ball. But given the amount of power in this Padres lineup, it seems like a given that we'll see a few leave the part. Then it comes down to how much damage is done and if this Dodgers lineup can back him, which they can always do. 

You know where we stand on the total tonight. Each of these teams is in hotly contested races — one for the playoffs and the other for the division. Each will be dialed in from the plate against two pitchers who are mediocre at this stage in their careers. Four straight starts for Lynn have seen games go Over their total. On the other side, two of the last three have gone Over when Rich Hill takes the mound. 

Trend to know

The first two games of this series have gone Over the total. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres

Dodgers vs Padres game info

Starting pitchers

Lance Lynn (6-9, 6.47 ERA): The Lynn fade has been a gift this season as he is in the midst of the worst season of his career. He's struggled with the long ball and the hard-hit ball in general. Lynn's barrel rate is in the Bottom 8% of baseball, and his expected slugging percentage could be much better. He'll come into this one off his first start with his new team, where he went six innings and allowed three earned runs to the Oakland Athletics. 

Rich Hill (7-10, 4.76 ERA): Hill's metrics are all largely atrocious, including an expected ERA that reaches nearly six. Most know about the 43-year-old lefty and how he eats up innings. The velocity from his pitches is long gone, so he relies on great pitch sequencing and a few slow-breaking balls to collect outs. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, but as a whole, Hill has been at least serviceable for much of the season.

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