The San Diego Padres will continue their desperate attempt to stay in the National League Wild Card race as they host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the finale of a four-game set on Monday afternoon.
The Dodgers have won two of the first three games in this series, and have built a four-game lead in the NL West. Meanwhile, the Padres are now three games back of the final Wild Card position with 50 games left to play this season.
To get a key win, San Diego will have to solve Los Angeles starter Tony Gonsolin, who hasn’t lived up to the monster year he put together in 2022. MLB odds have labeled the home side as the favorite, but my MLB picks for the Dodgers vs. Padres will focus on a certain player to regain his hot streak after a hitless outing.
Dodgers vs Padres odds
Dodgers vs Padres predictions
Last season, Tony Gonsolin posted one of the most eye-popping raw numbers in MLB via his 16-1 record for the Dodgers. In just 24 starts, Gonsolin pitched to a sterling 2.14 ERA, and only his relatively paltry total of 130 1/3 innings pitched prevented him from earning some Cy Young Award consideration.
Gonsolin hasn’t recreated that success in 2023. In his first 17 starts, the 29-year-old has posted a mediocre 4.11 ERA — the highest number of his career. Gonsolin is striking out fewer batters than ever, and while opposing batters are still struggling to hit him — he’s giving up just 6.8 hits per nine innings — he’s also continuing to struggle with his control... something that has never been a strong point during his career.
In his most recent outing, Gonsolin gave up just one run in five innings. However, that came against the lowly Oakland Athletics, which continues a recent trend where he has been able to handle weaker teams while struggling mightily against deeper lineups. In his previous two starts, he allowed a total of nine earned runs in 10 innings as he unsuccessfully tried to navigate the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers.
The San Diego Padres don’t have the explosive offense that Texas brings to the table, but they profile very similarly to the Blue Jays. Like Toronto, San Diego has a lineup filled with talented names but hasn’t put up as many runs as expected this year, hovering right around the league average for offensive production.
However, there are specific players in the lineup that should be able to take advantage of a struggling Gonsolin. Chief among them is Juan Soto, who has been absolutely crushing the ball as of late. Over the past four weeks, Soto is hitting .317 with a monster 1.136 OPS, slamming nine homers in that span.
Soto’s great against everyone, but he especially crushes righthanded pitching — putting up a 1.022 OPS on the season against righties. With Gonsolin faltering in 2023 and Soto as hot as ever, this seems like the perfect time to back the 24-year-old superstar outfielder on a prop market.
My pick is the total bases market, where we can get a plus number on Soto to get at least two bases this afternoon. Not only is Soto an extra-base hit machine, but in his current form, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him get multiple hits... something he has done in five of his last seven games. I’m taking the Over and counting on Soto to take care of business early against Gonsolin this afternoon.
My best bet: Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+135)
Dodgers vs Padres same-game parlay
Soto Over 1.5 TB
Soto 1+ RBI
Padres ML
I’m counting on a big day from Juan Soto for my same-game parlay today. I'll start with my best bet, which is Over 1.5 on Soto’s total bases prop. Along with that, I’ll also predict that Soto knocks in at least one run — a likely outcome if he can get the multiple hits I expect, with an automatic win if he goes deep off of Gonsolin.
To round out the SGP, I’m going to assume the Padres benefit from Soto’s heroics and win the game outright. San Diego is in a solid position in this afternoon’s matchup in any case, and if Soto goes off, then it should be able to get the win and bring home a nice parlay payout for us.
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Dodgers vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Today’s game opened relatively even at most books, with some sites initially putting -110 odds on both sides. However, the Padres have become the consensus favorite, with -120 being about the best you can get on San Diego as of noon on Monday. The Los Angeles Dodgers are available at significant plus odds, with some sites offering Los Angeles at +120.
Neither team has been great on the moneyline this year. The Dodgers haven’t been disappointing, exactly, but have still lost three units on the season as they’ve not dominated quite as much as bettors expected. The Padres have fallen well short of expectations, losing 23.5 units on the moneyline for 2023.
I’m not happy with the odds on either side of this matchup. I do think San Diego has a slight edge in the pitching duel today, as the Padres should match up well against Gonsolin. However, the Dodgers are clearly the better team overall, and it’s hard to bet against them even on the road without a better price than this. I’m staying off the moneyline today, though if I had to pick a lean, I’d say L.A. is the better bet.
The total on today’s game opened at nine runs, and most books have stuck at that total. The Over is generally the favorite, with -115 being the best number available on the market right now — while you can get +105 on the Under.
I’m inclined to agree with the books on this one. Without a dominant pitcher on either side, these two lineups should be able to find some success. This doesn’t line up as a slugfest, but nine runs is an achievable number for these teams. Even at -115 or -120, I’m leaning towards the Over.
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Trend to know
Juan Soto has accumulated at least two total bases in six of his last seven games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres
Dodgers vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Monday, August 7, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet LA, SDPA |
Starting pitchers
Tony Gonsolin (6-4, 4.11 ERA): After a sterling 2022 campaign, Gonsolin has struggled this season, at least in relative terms. He continues to pitch in the same style he has throughout his career, giving up relatively few hits but struggling with control issues. However, his strikeout numbers are down this year and he’s walking more batters again, something he at least partially controlled last year.
Seth Lugo (4-5, 3.54 ERA): The 33-year-old Lugo has adapted well this year in moving to a full-time starting role after the New York Mets primarily used him out of the bullpen for most of his career. While Lugo doesn’t typically go deep into games, he has been a steady presence in the San Diego rotation, making 16 starts with a solid 3.75 FIP.
