The Los Angeles Dodgers are on a roll with seven wins in their last nine tries, and will be back at it again on Saturday against the lowly Kansas City Royals. Can L.A. keep it going as heavy favorites in the MLB odds with one of their best pitchers returning from injury?
Let’s break down Dodgers vs. Royals in our MLB picks and predictions for July 1.
Dodgers vs Royals odds
Dodgers vs Royals predictions
Julio Urias will make his return from injury on Saturday, and while he’s been a huge lift when healthy throughout his Dodgers career, he’s off to a rocky start in 2023. The left-hander sits in the bottom 37% of the league in expected ERA and in the bottom 17% in expected slugging after he was among the league’s elite in that category for years.
The big issue is that Urias’ fastball is now getting hammered. That shouldn’t really be an issue on Saturday, considering the Royals are dead-last in weighted runs per 100 fastballs according to Statcast, and on top of that they’re 27th in wRC+ to lefties.
I’m pretty confident in the Dodgers winning here behind Urias, but with the moneyline juiced to the moon, we’ve got to get creative to bet this one. This will come down to how much the Dodgers score, and considering they’ve got a 108 wRC+ over the last two weeks, I’m not thinking they will blow the doors off of Daniel Lynch here.
Lynch has been surprisingly effective this year with a 3.96 ERA, pitching around a 15.9% strikeout rate. With an xwOBA on contact below the league average, this game should be a low-scoring one.
My best bet: Under 9.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Dodgers vs Royals same-game parlay
Under 9.5
Dodgers moneyline
Julio Urias 5+ Strikeouts
We’ve covered the first two legs pretty extensively above. I think Urias is a good pitcher, so I’m not going to write him off after 10 bad starts. It’s possible the injury is partially to blame for the bad results, and for what it’s worth, his strikeout rate is still over a point higher than the league average despite the fact that it’s down for a second straight year.
The Royals are punching out in a ridiculous 27.4% of plate appearances over the last two weeks and own a strikeout rate just under 25% against lefties this year. I think Urias should be able to work deep into this game given how bad the Royals are the plate, and I’m encouraged by the fact that he had a long rehab assignment.
With a bunch of starts to ramp up to his return, I think it’s reasonable to expect Urias can go six frames or more, which would put the five strikeouts squarely in play.
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Dodgers vs Royals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
You may be able to guess this, but the with a big name on the hill for the Dodgers and a bad team at the plate, many are looking at this big number and thinking to themselves, it’s too good to be true.
A solid 92% of the bets have come in on the Dodgers moneyline, and 86% of the handle is there as well. Los Angeles has been white hot, and despite its issues with lefties in the past, it should handle a struggling Lynch.
The Over seems to be the popular side in this matchup. Just 42% of the tickets and 39% of the money are on the Under here according to DraftKings, though I staunchly disagree. Urias has not had a great season to this point, but his track record points to things turning around for him. On top of that, his pitches have come in with the same velocity and spin, meaning it’s a matter of location and command.
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Trend to know
The Dodgers are 8-1 in the last nine meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Royals
Dodgers vs Royals game info
| Location: | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Saturday, July 1, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Julio Urias (5-4, 4.39 ERA): The lefty was last seen in the majors on May 18, when he allowed six earned runs on six hits and two walks over three innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. He was subsequently placed on the injured list with a hamstring issue.
Daniel Lynch (1-3, 3.96 ERA): Lynch owned a 4.06 ERA in five June starts, but most of that stems from seven earned runs against the Cincinnati Reds back on June 14. He allowed six home runs last month and struck out just 18 in 31 innings.
