Giants vs Cardinals Picks and Predictions: No Wain, No Gain

The San Francisco Giants surprised everyone and won a league-best 57 games in the first half of the 2021 MLB season. Now, they will need to prove that it wasn’t a fluke, and that begins with a three-game set versus the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cardinals sit two games below .500 but took two of three in San Francisco in July, including a 5-3 win versus Friday starter Kevin Gausman.

Here are our free picks and predictions for San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals for Friday, July 16.

Giants vs Cardinals game info

• Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
• Date: Friday, July 16, 2021
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Midwest, NBCS BA

Giants vs Cardinals odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

MLB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

This moneyline tumbled at TwinSpires, where San Francisco opened -155 and is down to -132 at 5 p.m. ET. The Giants are taking 66 percent of moneyline bets, while the Cardinals are drawing 62 percent of moneyline cash. The total dipped from 7.5 to 7, with 75 percent of bets/61 percent of money on the Under.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Giants vs Cardinals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Kevin Gausman (9-3, 1.73 ERA): Kevin Gausman boasts the third-lowest betting odds to capture the NL Cy Young, as his first half of 2021 was nothing short of spectacular. He has the fifth-best WAR among MLB starting pitchers and is one of only three starters with a sub-2.00 ERA. The Giants’ starter has benefited greatly with a .212 BABIP from opposing batters this season and has a 3.99 career ERA. Will regression hit the right-hander in the second half?

Adam Wainwright (7-5, 3.58 ERA): The Cards will give the ball to veteran pitcher Adam Wainwright in the second-half opener on Friday night. The righty missed his start last Sunday and hasn’t pitched since July 6 where he gave up three runs over five innings in a 6-5 win against, coincidentally, the San Francisco Giants.  Wainwright leads the Cards’ rotation in WAR and is second in WHIP behind Jack Flaherty.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Giants: Buster Posey C/1B (questionable), Tommy La Stella 2B (out), Brandon Belt 1B (out), Evan Longoria 3B (out)
Cardinals: Jordan Hicks RP (out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Cardinals are 6-0 SU in their last six games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Cardinals.

Moneyline pick

Kevin Gausman is the perfect representation of the Giants in the first half of the 2021 season. Gausman came into the year with a career ERA of over 4.00 but has pitched to one of the best ERA’s in baseball this year. Like Gausman, nobody expected the San Francisco Giants to have the league’s best record at the halfway point, but here we are. 

The Cardinals’ offense is 12 for 48 (.250) versus Gausman, which is much higher than the .159 batting average opponents have against the Giants’ starter this year. Nolan Arenado, Paul Dejong and Paul Goldschmidt have all taken Gausman long. The red birds also saddled the Giants’ starter with a 5-3 loss on July 5, where San Fran closed as -210 favorites. The following game on July 6, Adam Wainwright picked up a 6-5 win as the Cards handed the Giants their first back-to-back losses at home since late May.

St. Louis has been a poor road club all year, but at Busch Stadium, the Cards are a much better team. They are 23-18 SU at home this year and are holding teams to just 4.00 runs per game there. San Francisco has been good wherever it goes this season, but puttered on the road heading into the break, losing three of its last six road games and going 4-6 SU in its last 10 traveling games against teams not from Arizona.

There is a 35 percent chance of rain at Busch Stadium, which could benefit the home team if the Giants have to lift Gausman in a possible rain delay or even delay the visiting pitcher.

We’re suckers for value after long breaks, as we feel it benefits the underdog in these situations following an All-Star break. And if we’re going to get +136 on the home side, we aren’t going to say no.

PREDICTION: St. Louis ML (+136)

Over/Under pick

Both teams have been profitable to the Under this year. Friday’s game brings us a great matchup from an Under perspective, as the Cardinals are one of the lightest hitting teams in all of baseball while the Giants are arguably the best defensive team in the MLB.

San Francisco allows the fewest runs/9 (3.69), holds opponents to the third-lowest batting average (.220) and second-lowest OPS (.643) while allowing under 1.00 home runs per game (one of only three teams who do).   

St. Louis, on the other hand, has the 27th-lowest runs/9, 26th-lowest AVG and OPS and is in the bottom 10 in home runs per game. We still like the value on the home side, but St. Louis is no offensive juggernaut.

Gausman may be overachieving, but the right-hander has still been dominant all season. He’s allowed one or fewer runs in 72 percent of his starts this year which is kind of mind-blowing. 

Wainwright has also been a much better pitcher at home this year with a 2.55 ERA to go along with a sub-1.00 WHIP. Batters are hitting just .205 versus Wainwright at Busch Stadium in 2021 with a 0.591 OPS.

After a long break, cold bats are what we’re hoping for Friday night.

PREDICTION: Under 7.5 (-110)

Giants vs Cardinals betting card

• St. Louis ML (+136)
• Under 7.5 (-110)

Picks made on 7/16/2021 at 11:30 a.m. ET

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