The last-place Arizona Diamondbacks host the first-place San Francisco Giants for the start of a difficult four-game set at Chase Field on Thursday.
Arizona, the first team in baseball to reach 60 losses, has been a punching bag all season and is surrendering an MLB-high 5.60 runs per game. It will get one of baseball's surprise teams in the Giants, who have been dominant but enter the series on a three-game skid.
Find out who we like in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Giants vs. Diamondbacks on July 1.
Giants vs Diamondbacks game info
• Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Thursday, July 1, 2021
• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Giants vs Diamondbacks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonSan Francisco landed on TwinSpires' odds board as -127 chalk and is out to -148 as of 7 p.m. ET. Ticket count is running 3/1 and cash 5/1 on the Giants. The total is stable at 9, with bettors leaning toward the Under, which is taking 55 percent of tickets/58 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameGiants vs Diamondbacks betting preview
Starting pitchers
Johnny Cueto (6-3, 3.63 ERA): Cueto has rebounded after a rough go in the abbreviated 2020 season, with his ERA nearly two runs lower after the same amount of starts. His velocity has increased a tick and he's sporting a career-best strikeout-to-walk rate. Though he encountered some home run troubles in multiple outings to start June, he's coming off a strong seven-inning gem against the A's in which he held them to no runs on five hits and punched out six.
Merrill Kelly (4-7, 4.73): The right-hander has improved each month this season, with his ERA going from 6.33 in April to 4.10 in May before closing out June with a mark of 4.00. Kelly has thrown well in each of his last two starts, leading the Diamondbacks to victories in both by throwing seven innings of one-run ball against the Brewers and following it up with six scoreless versus San Diego.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Giants: Mike Yastrzemski OF (Questionable), Mike Tauchman OF (Questionable), Tommy La Stella 2B (Out), Brandon Belt 1B (Out), Evan Longoria 3B (Out).
Diamondbacks: Ketel Marte 2B (Out), Kole Calhoun OF (Out), Carson Kelly C (Out), Tyler Clippard RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0-1 in Cueto's last six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Diamondbacks.
Moneyline pick
The Diamondbacks aren't offering up any signs that they will turn their dreadful season around.
At the first of July, they are already 29.5 games out of first and have an MLB-worst -117 run differential. Their pitching has been atrocious, they just placed Ketel Marte, who has destroyed the baseball this season, back on the injured list, and they've lost 24 of their last 26 games. Now they have to go through baseball's best team in the 50-win Giants.
San Francisco wasn't supposed to be in first place three months into the season in a division that features the powerhouse Dodgers and Padres, but they've gotten resurgent seasons from a number of veterans and have excelled in most areas. Their offense is Top 10 in FanGraphs' WAR, as is their pitching, and they are sixth in defensive runs saved. Arizona, on the other hand, is in the bottom third in all three categories, including ranking last in pitcher WAR.
While Kelly has thrown well in back-to-back outings, he was roughed up by the Giants three starts ago and his Diamondbacks simply can't be trusted in this matchup.
Getting the Giants at under -140 is a great price. If you're feeling really confident, they are plus money on the runline.
PREDICTION: San Francisco (-137)
Over/Under pick
After going seven of his first eight starts without allowing a long ball, Cueto surrendered two homers in three consecutive starts before snapping that ugly streak with one of his sharpest performances of the season his last time out.
If Cueto commands the zone well, home runs won't be an issue for him today. The Diamondbacks have hit the second-fewest homers in baseball and they rank dead last in that category over the last 30 days. San Francisco has more than doubled Arizona's output over that stretch.
While Cueto didn't pitch well against the D-backs in his lone start against them this season back in May, he shouldn't encounter much trouble with their futile and injury-ravaged lineup tonight.
Kelly, meanwhile, gets a Giants lineup that is banged up, too, and he's coming off his two best starts of the year. He fanned 10 batters and issued just one walk in his last two outings and got both the Brewers and Padres to pound the ball into the ground, inducing double-digit groundball outs in both starts.
Kelly has gone six-plus innings in seven of his last nine starts and Arizona will need more of the same today, as the D-backs have one of baseball's worst bullpens with a 5.29 ERA.
San Francisco has one of the best, sporting the third-best ERA (3.28) and the lowest walk rate among all relief corps. Cueto and the relievers that follow him aren't going to run into trouble to kick off this series and we're liking the Giants to go Under for the fourth consecutive game.
PREDICTION: Under 9 (-115)
Giants vs Diamondbacks betting card
- San Francisco (-137)
- Under 9 (-115)
Picks made on 07/01/2021 at 11:13 a.m. ET
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