The San Diego Padres took the first two games of the series against their NL West counterparts to create some separation in the divisional standings.
The San Francisco Giants are just 2-8 over their last 10 games and have fallen 12.5 games back. San Diego is now six games back of the surging Los Angeles Dodgers, who have won nine of their last ten games.
The third installment of this four-game series is expected to be a pitcher's duel with Carlos Rodon on the mound for the visitors and Yu Darvish getting the nod for the home side.
Check out our free MLB betting picks and predictions for the Giants vs. Padres on July 9, 2022.
Giants vs Padres odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Padres opened at -109 at most spots and there hasn’t been any line movement. Be sure to shop around, as San Diego ranges from -102 to -110 depending on the book. The total opened at 6.5 but has moved to 7.0.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Giants vs Padres predictions
Picks made on 7/9/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Giants vs Padres game info
• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Saturday, July 9, 2022
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-BAY, Bally Sports San Diego
Giants vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Carlos Rodon (7-5, 2.87 ERA): The left-hander has been excellent in his first season with San Francisco. However, he did slip up last time out against the Arizona Diamondbacks, allowing four earned runs across five innings to take the loss. It was his first loss since May 27, which is also the last time he allowed more than two earned runs in a start. He has a 2.83 xERA, 2.24 FIP, 30.4% strikeout rate, and 3.0% barrel rate.
Yu Darvish (7-4, 3.53 ERA): Darvish allowed five earned runs across six innings in his last start to move his ERA up past three and a half. His first season in San Diego didn’t go as he expected (8-11, 4.22 ERA) but he has performed better across 15 starts this season. He’s pitching a bit more carefully, as his walk rate is down nearly two percentage points (4.7% from 6.5%). This has also resulted in a drop in punch outs, as his 22.4% strikeout rate is the lowest he’s posted since his 2012 rookie season (27.1%).
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Giants are 9-4 in their last 13 games after losing the first two games of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Padres
Giants vs Padres picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Padres have taken each of the first two games of the series and Saturday’s Game 3 is lined close to a pick ‘em. It’s a close matchup despite what the records might say — San Diego is six and a half games up in the NL West standings.
Carlos Rodon takes the mound for San Francisco and therefore the Giants will be getting my bet tonight. He’s been extremely effective since the start of last season and is a pitcher that I want to back. This year, his 2.83 xERA and 2.24 FIP strongly back up his 2.87 ERA. He strikes out a ton of batters (30.4%) while also managing to limit walks (8.2% walk rate) and hard contact (3.0% barrel rate).
Yu Darvish is a good pitcher in his own right, but he’s simply not on Rodon’s level. Darvish is posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career and has been far more volatile from start to start.
The Giants are 9-4 in their last 13 games after losing the first two games of a series, and this is another bounce-back spot for them. They’ve fallen into a hole with recent performances, but having a pitcher of Rodon’s quality on the mound is the most important factor in this handicap.
San Diego is also nothing special against left-handed pitching. In the last 15 days, they rank 18th in both wOBA and wRC+ against southpaws.
Give me San Francisco to get back on track and avoid dropping three in a row to its division rival.
Prediction: Giants moneyline (-109 at Unibet)
Over/Under analysis
These teams are trending to the Over when they face off with one another, but I’m looking in the other direction.
Saturday’s meeting features two quality pitchers in Rodon and Darvish. Rodon has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball with a stellar 2.83 xERA, 3.0% barrel rate, and 30.4% strikeout rate. Darvish’s peripherals aren’t quite as pretty, but his 3.66 xERA and 3.37 FIP are both good numbers.
Neither lineup has been in particularly good form — there’s a reason both teams have been struggling lately. Over the past 15 days, San Diego ranks 26th in OPS, 26th in wOBA, and 25th in wRC+. During that same time span, San Francisco ranks dead last (30th) in OPS, 29th in wOBA, and 29th in wRC+.
Both lineups have been performing dreadfully and I see no reason for that to change tonight given the quality of starting pitching. The Padres’ numbers are slightly better against lefties (.249 average and .328 OPS) than righties (.233 average and .310 OBP) but their advanced numbers against southpaws still rank below league average, so I’m not scared by their splits.
Give me the Under for Game 3 in this series
Prediction: Under 7 (-120 at BetMGM)
Best bet
I’m looking to back Rodon in this spot. The Giants are coming off two losses to begin the series but the Padres have been one of the worst hitting teams in recent form. To sum up the article above, I like Rodon in this matchup.
I’m going to target the Giants on the first-half moneyline. San Francisco’s bullpen has been worrisome, posting a 4.30 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. I’m opting to remove relief pitching from the equation by taking the first five innings moneyline, and I’m getting nearly the same price to do so.
Pick: Giants first five innings moneyline (-115 at BetMGM)
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