After a pair of extra-inning victories, the San Francisco Giants will look to sweep the home side Philadelphia Phillies today as the visitors send out Carlos Rodon to make it three straight wins for the 27-21 Giants.
Can the Phillies’ 25th-ranked bullpen in ERA help snap their five-game skid or will Rodon settle in after a trio of sub-par starts and get back to his dominant early-season form? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Giants at Phillies.
Giants vs Phillies odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Phillies opened as -120 moneyline favorites and have since moved five points to -125. The Giants closed as a slight road favorite in the series opener before closing as +136 dogs last night.
The total also saw some movement after opening at 8 and moving to 8.5 but can still be found at 8. The first two games of the series saw closing totals of 9 and 9.5, respectively.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Giants vs Phillies predictions
Picks made on 6/01/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Giants vs Phillies game info
• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Wednesday, June 1, 2022
• First pitch: 6:05 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports Bay Area, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Giants vs Phillies betting preview
Starting pitchers
Carlos Rodon (4-4, 3.60 ERA): Over his first six starts, Rodon boasted a 1.80 ERA with an incredible 1.22 FIP but a three-pack of uncharacteristic starts has ballooned his ERA to 3.60. The lefty has still been missing a ton of bats and sits in the Top 12% in K% with 64 punchouts in 50 innings. When Rodon is on, very few pitchers are as dominant. He’s only seen the Phillies once over his career but Philadelphia is striking out at a 25% rate versus left-handed pitching, which is the fifth-highest mark in baseball. San Francisco is 4-5 straight up when Rondon starts and 1-4 SU in his last five starts. Rodon is 4-5 O/U in his nine starts this season.
Aaron Nola (2-4, 3.56 ERA): Nola has been his usually low-walk/high-strikeout self this season. He ranks in the Top 12% in strikeout percentage despite slightly better-than-average numbers in whiff percentage and chase rate. He is coming off arguably his best start where he struck out 10 over eight-plus innings. Nola has no issues going deep, and that might be a huge boost to the Phillies, who are rolling out an awful bullpen. Nola is averaging 18 outs per start and has thrown more than 100 pitches in three of his last five. Despite his success, the Phillies are just 2-8 SU in his 10 starts this season and are 5-4-1 O/U.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Giants: Evan Longoria 3B (Out), Darin Ruf OF (Out), Austin Slater OF (Out).
Phillies: Jean Segura 2B (Out), Didi Gregorious SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 8-1 in the Giants’ last nine games vs. the National League East. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Phillies
Giants vs Phillies picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Phillies have dropped five straight games and it hasn’t been due to a lack of offense as the Philadelphia bats have averaged 4.00 runs per game over the skid. But, with a bullpen that ranks in the Bottom 10 in the league in ERA, it’s been tough sledding for the Phillies who currently sit eight games below .500 and are 9-20 SU in games versus teams with a winning record.
The Giants have used a pair of come-from-behind extra-innings wins in this series and despite using nine relievers over two games, have won the bullpen game with just four runs allowed over 8 2-3 innings compared to the Phillies’ eight runs allowed over 10-plus innings of relief work. Of Philadelphia's seven most-used relievers, only one of them has a sub-3.40 ERA on the season.
Making things worse for the Phillies is the absence of second baseman Jean Segura, who fractured his finger trying to lay down a bunt. He’ll join starting shortstop Didi Gregarious on the shelf, which will certainly make one of the league’s worst defensive teams even shakier. Segura wasn’t hitting for much power but his .288 AVG will be missed from the Phillies’ two-spot in the lineup.
The pitching matchup is a tough one to dissect. Carlos Rodon is an elite lefty and faces a lineup that strikeouts a ton vs. southpaws but the starter hasn’t been at his best of late. However, if he is dealing, getting the Giants as a dog might feel like a steal.
Rodon will oppose Aaron Nola, who is coming off his best start and has generally been very reliable this season. He owns a sub-1.00 WHIP thanks to a great walk rate but the long ball is always an issue with the righty. If the Giants get to him, it could be for a crooked number as Nola sits in the Top 10 in home runs allowed and finished in that same spot last season.
Nola will face an underrated San Francisco offense that sits in the Top 7 in SLG% and wOBA on the season. Evan Longoria will likely miss tonight’s game but former Phillie skipper, Gabe Kapler, knows how to navigate a lineup better than most in baseball so it shouldn’t hurt the visitors' bats too much tonight.
We’re aware this is a getaway spot for the Giants with a series in Miami next, but the Phillies are sliding, the bullpen has been overused and hit hard and the loss of Segura hurts the lineup as well as the already poor defense. Getting Rodon as an underdog is also not a common occurrence.
Prediction: Giants ML (+108 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Today’s total of 8 is the lowest of the series. At least nine runs have been scored in both games so far and although plenty of those runs came in extra innings, both bullpens have been taxed (19 1-3 combined innings thrown) and neither team’s relievers should be trusted.
Over the last 30 days, both bullpens rank in the Bottom 10 in the league in ERA with the Giants sitting in dead last at 6.25. Both starters could certainly get deep, but the late innings could be very interesting in terms of run production.
The hitting conditions are also favorable to the Over. Double-digit winds are blowing out to left field and the expected rain shouldn’t be an issue at game time. Temperatures will be in the 80s while humidity will be sitting around 65%.
The Philadelphia offense has been a slight disappointment this season but with Bryce Harper showing no hangover after last year’s NL MVP campaign and being supported by Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, and JT Realmuto, this lineup is capable of hanging up big numbers. Facing this SF bullpen and a recently struggling Rodon, the home side should be able to flirt with its team total of 3.5.
Only three other teams have produced more runs this season than the Giants. Kapler’s constant tinkering with the lineup gets everyone involved and this is a Top-10 offense as a result.
Only the Braves have a better Over record than the Giants (27-20-1 to the Over this season). The Phillies aren’t far behind at 27-21-2 O/U as tonight’s matchup will feature two of the 13 teams in baseball who have been profitable to the Over this season.
With a short total and two banged-up bullpens, we’re diving on the Over again tonight at Citizens Bank Park
Prediction: Over 8 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
San Francisco rookie outfielder Luis Gonzalez has been a beast for the Giants this season. He's coming off a four-hit performance yesterday, has 27 total bases over his last 13 games, leads the team with a .347 average, and is second with a .869 OPS.
Luis Gonzalez after this double: .333/.373/.475 with 19 RBI in 31 games ???? pic.twitter.com/tjr2EnQgeD
— Alex Pavlovic (@PavlovicNBCS) June 1, 2022
He’s been crushing right-handers to the tune of a .374/.407/.530 slash line and comes into tonight's matchup with a ton of confidence at the dish. Gonzalez might even find himself in the clean-up spot with the injury to Longoria.
The 26-year-old is in great shape to knock in a run tonight and it’s something he's been doing this season with 19 RBI across 101 at-bats. He’s 10-for-23 with runners in scoring position and has great plate-discipline numbers for a young hitter with a strikeout rate below 20%.
Pick: Gonzalez Over 0.5 RBI (+230)
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