Giants vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds: Fading Opening Day Yankee Tax

It's Opening Day in New York City when a coastal battle plays out between the New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants. 

Last season was filled with disappointment for San Francisco, when it failed to make the postseason after high aspirations. New York’s season was filled with thrills with Aaron Judge’s chase to break the home run record. With that said, the Bomber faithful still expected more, and their season ended with a resounding ALDS series win for the Houston Astros.

Expectations are again high for both of these teams coming into the year. What’s the Best Bet for this one? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants on Thursday, March 30.

Giants vs Yankees odds

Giants vs Yankees predictions

Out of the gate, we get a game where baseball's new rule changes could have a significant difference on the impact of the game, with Logan Webb facing off against Gerrit Cole. 

Webb had the second “fastest” tempo in the league a season ago among SPs. That delivery will only get quicker, which could hurt a Yankees lineup that hasn’t always been the most well-rounded. As a Bomber fan, I know some of the holes that Aaron Judge’s historic season covered up a year ago. To start the season here, some of those flaws could be evident. I’m taking a shot at the value of the Giants moneyline in this spot.

In projecting this one out, I see value in any number above +140. You’re generally going always to get some deal going against the Yankees, and that value may not be higher at any point all season than it is today. I have to take this at a number north of 160.

Value isn’t the only thing I'm betting on here, though, from a base-level perspective. One of these lineups has been better against the starting pitcher than the other. As of writing, neither team's lineup has been officially released, but we’re working on the expected lineups. Those predicted lineups had a Yankees team with four career bats against Webb. The reverse of that? A Giants lineup with significant experience against Cole in which the worst batter was .286 on seven plate appearances. It’s not of enormous relevance, but this early in the season, these things tend to hold more weight.

I mentioned the pitch clock earlier, and while I think it could help Webb, I expect it to hurt Cole — at least early on. 

Whether it was an adjustment or an opponent, Cole struggled early on in Spring Training and concluded it with back-to-back scoreless three-inning appearances. It’s hard to contribute that to the pitch clock directly, but I suspect it’s heavily related. Cole is a heavy rhythm-based pitcher. That can be said about most, but it’s particularly true about him. As the years have progressed, Cole has been easier to get off-kilter, and when it happens, he really can have some blow-ups. Sure, he’s still dominant when he’s on, but at a price, I’m seeing, I’m willing to take a chance he may not be. Particularly against a lineup that finished above average in hard-hit rate (in a down season), which is an area Cole has had issues with before.

Grab the Giants' moneyline in this spot. I think there’s a high chance the new rule changes could impact this game. I like the first five lines and the whole game line, but I see more value in the latter. 

My best bet: Giants moneyline (+162) 

Giants vs Yankees moneyline analysis

I’m grabbing the Giants' moneyline here. I needed +140 or better to grab San Francisco and have comfortably got that with New York being steamed overnight. 

There’s a chance that things could go awry in Cole’s first start, given he’s adjusting to new rule changes. It’s not just that, though; historically, Cole hasn’t been his dominant self on Opening Day. He’s been credited just one win in his last eight seasons, and some of those have included a few stinkers. The Yankees have the pitching edge here, but I don’t think it’s as heavy as the number indicates. FanGraphs projects a 3.75 ERA season for Webb and a 3.22 ERA season for Cole, while I wouldn’t be surprised to see that gap even closer. 

Giants vs Yankees Over/Under analysis

Early on in the season, I will be conservative playing totals. In a vacuum, we know we saw an increase in run scoring during Spring Training, and I’m curious to see if that carries over to the actual season. The question is even more pressing when evaluating some of these games happening on the East Coast. It’ll be a cold, typical March afternoon in New York today, so I’m not exactly expecting the ball to be flying — even against pitchers that can have barrel rate issues.

I say this to say that I won’t be on any side here. My projections placed this total at 6.5, so while I'll have a lean to the Over, I have some concerns about the weather keeping the runs down. Additionally, I’d suspect you’ll get a better number in game. 

Giants vs Yankees game info

Giants vs Yankees betting preview

Starting pitchers

Logan Webb (0-0, 0.00 ERA): There’s this lingering feeling for me that we may see some regression from Cole in 2023. He was dominant when he needed to be last season, including the playoffs, but the random blowup game seemed more frequent. He was killed by the long ball last season, particularly in the second half of the season when he posted an ERA over 4. While that can quickly improve, and Cole can be Cole, it does have to send off some alarm bells — even if they are faint. 

Gerrit Cole (0-0, 0.00 ERA): You can safely say that last season was Webb’s best. He was dominant throughout the year and concluded his campaign with a 2.9 ERA in September. It was a month that spoke to his remarkable consistency throughout the season, and it will be curious to see if that continues in 2023. He’ll be returning from an injury, but that hasn’t lowered the expectations for him. You feel like Webb is the safest, most consistent starter in the Giants rotation, and he’ll look to build on that this year. 

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The Under is 9-0 in the last nine meetings between these two teams in New York. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Yankees

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