The dream World Series matchup between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers features some of the best home run hitters in the game today.
Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Giancarlo Stanton, and Teoscar Hernandez just to name a few. So this, dream World Series matchup needs some dream Yankees vs. Dodgers home run props.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for who will hit some dingers in Game 1 of the World Series.
For a full game breakdown, be sure to check out our Yankees vs. Dodgers predictions!
Yankees home run pick
Aaron Judge to hit a home run
+200 at FanDuel
The Giancarlo Stanton rise from the dead has been something to behold this postseason but I also think we can put to bed the notion that Aaron Judge is a postseason bust.
Judge, who is the shoo-in to win his second MVP award, has been dogged for a while about his postseason performance and while he doesn’t have a ton of hits this year, they have all been big. Judge has a hit in four of his last six playoff games, three for extra bases, and two absolute dongers, resulting in a .883 OPS and I like this matchup against Jack Flaherty for the biggest Bronx Bomber of them all.
Flaherty has had an interesting postseason. He’s pitched two duds with a gem against the Mets sandwiched in the middle. Overall, he’s surrendered 12 runs on 15 hits, including three homers while surrendering a .852 OPS to opponents.
The Los Angeles Dodgers’ right-hander relies mostly on a fastball-slider combo to get batters out. While the slider is sharp his fastball can get tagged and opponents have a .448 expected slugging against it this season. Not surprisingly, he is also a fly-ball pitcher ranking in the 38th percentile in ground ball rate.
The funny thing about this matchup is Flaherty and Judge have never faced off despite time with the Orioles and Tigers the last two seasons. But Judge still might have an edge. Flaherty also has reverse splits and it's righties who have the better OPS (.730) vs. him. Judge had a .779 expected slugging against fastballs this season.
Dodgers home run pick
Mookie Betts to hit a home run
+480 at FanDuel
Gerrit Cole is a very good starting pitcher. But something that has always burned him has been the home run and that continued this season, allowing one home run per nine innings.
Basically, Cole has great stuff but when that stuff gets hit, it gets hit hard. Cole ranks in the 25th percentile in average exit velocity and the 42nd percentile in hard-hit percentage. It also doesn’t help that he’s a fly-ball pitcher ranking in the 26th percentile in ground ball rate.
That brings me to Mookie Betts. The Dodgers All-Star do-everything man is coming off another fantastic season and is now heating up in the postseason. Betts is hitting .342 with a 1.182 OPS including four home runs over his last nine games.
The other reason to like Betts here is his style. Unlike some of his teammates who swing super hard, Betts is a master of barrelling up the baseball. Betts ranks I the 92nd percentile in sweet-spot rate and the 99th percentile in squared-up percentage. He doesn’t chase. He doesn’t miss. He’s just really good.
It doesn’t hurt that he has solid numbers against Cole as well. Betts is 7-1, striking out just once in his career against the Yankees’ ace, good for a .329 expected batting average and a .546 expected slugging. Give be Betts to hit a bomb in Game 1.
All Yankees vs Dodgers home run odds for Game 1
Not intended for use in MA.
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