Juan Soto Next Team Odds: Will Soto's Time in The Bronx Be Short-Lived?

The New York Yankees came up short in the 2024 World Series, losing in five games to the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

Now, star outfielder Juan Soto is hitting the open market and could sign with any team of his choice.

MLB odds currently favor the New York Mets if Soto changes uniforms again, but the Yankees will likely pull out all the stops to retain his services for the next decade.

Juan Soto next team odds

Team	Odds
New York Yankees	-350
New York Mets	+275
Los Angeles Dodgers	+500
Philadelphia Phillies	+600
Toronto Blue Jays	+700
Chicago Cubs	+800
Boston Red Sox	+1,000
San Francisco Giants	+1,200
Seattle Mariners	+1,200
Houston Astros	+1,300
Baltimore Orioles	+1,400

Odds as of 10-31.

The situation at a glance

The San Diego Padres traded Juan Soto to the New York Yankees in early December 2023. He is now hitting free agency for the first time at just 26 years of age because he debuted at 19 as a member of the Washington Nationals, who later dealt him to San Diego as part of a massive rebuild.

In seven MLB seasons, Soto has slashed .285/.421/.532 with 201 home runs, 592 RBI, and 769 walks. That last part is extra important because despite his youth, he exhibits plate discipline far beyond his years and has done so since Day 1. 

Historically, the Yankees have signed many of the game's top players to lucrative, long-term deals. And you don't have to go back to the days of Roger Clemens and Alex Rodriguez for examples. They landed Gerrit Cole on a nine-year, $324-million contract ahead of 2020. They re-signed Aaron Judge to the tune of $360 million over nine seasons before 2023. And they've absorbed big contracts in trades, like that of Giancarlo Stanton, who is still owed $86 million over the next three seasons plus a $25-million team option for 2028. Some of that is being covered by the Marlins, but not all.

Soto, based on both his age and ability, is in line for one of the biggest free-agent contracts in baseball history. And even though it came just after the Yankees lost to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2024 World Series, Soto isn't offering assurances that he's staying in the Bronx.

Juan Soto was asked if he expects the Mets to go after him in free agency:

"I don't know what's the teams that are going to come after me. Definitely, I'll be open to this and every single team. I don't have any doors closed. I"m gonna be available for all 30 teams pic.twitter.com/3VICeWeney

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) October 31, 2024

The Yankees are obviously still alive and are the likely landing spot, but Soto will listen to all offers provided to him. Here is a look at the current favorites to snatch him away from the Yankees.

Favorites to be Juan Soto's next team

New York Yankees (-350)

Soto is coming off the best season of his career by fWAR (8.1) and reached career highs in home runs and runs scored. Hitting ahead of Judge will do that. He is projected to get a contract worth more than $600 million, and the Yankees probably need him more than he needs the Yankees.

New York has some nice pieces, having traded for Jazz Chisholm at the deadline, and rookie Jasson Dominguez should be a full-time outfielder assuming Alex Verdugo isn't brought back. Soto's presence makes the lineup extremely difficult to navigate, and his patience and on-base ability often eliminates the option to intentionally walk or pitch around Judge.

It's a dream 1-2 punch. But, there can be more than one dream...

New York Mets (+275)

New York Mets owner Steve Cohen has the deepest pockets imaginable. He's thrown his weight around before, acquiring and extending Francisco Lindor as one of his first acts after buying the team. He's also paid to get Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, neither of which paid off.

But the Mets also surprised everyone in 2024, reaching the NLCS despite a rough start to the season amid expectations that it would be, at best, a transition season.

New York needs pitching depth and will also have to look at re-signing 1B Pete Alonso, but if you think making those investments precludes Cohen from also gunning for Soto, you've got another thing coming. A return to New York seems likely. He just might be shuffling over to Queens instead of the Bronx.

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Los Angeles Dodgers (+500)

This would be a bitter pill to swallow for pretty much everyone, but especially the Yankees. Imagine losing the World Series and subsequently losing one of your best players to the same team that just beat you. Feels like a classic Yankees move, to be honest, only the roles used to be reversed.

And it does make sense in terms of fit. Teoscar Hernandez is a free agent, leaving Andy Pages and James Outman as the projected outfielders alongside Mookie Betts. Soto could slot into left field and help form the best 1-4 on any lineup card imaginable.

If money is no object, the Dodgers could become an even bigger powerhouse than before.

Philadelphia Phillies (+600)

Bryce Harper doesn't play outfield anymore, so it's not the worst fit in the world, and Soto would make the Philadelphia Phillies' offense even more fearsome, but the defense is already quite deficient and Soto's strengths lie more with the bat than with the glove.

Still, Dave Dombrowski loves to go big, and this would be a massive coup after a disappointing conclusion to the 2024 season. Knowing the Mets are in hot pursuit of Soto, landing him instead would be the most devastating result for the faithful from Queens. 

Toronto Blue Jays (+700)

Oh boy, here we go. Toronto Blue Jays fans were dealt a crushing blow last offseason when it appeared as though Shohei Ohtani was about to sign a massive contract to play out the next decade North of the border. After some ill-fated airplane tracking, Ohtani and his dog signed instead with the Dodgers.

The Blue Jays were also reported as a potential suitor to trade for Soto before the Yankees snagged him as Toronto put all its focus on Ohtani. I think the +700 odds are more wishful thinking than anything and would ultimately be shocked if Soto wound up on the Jays. Stranger things have happened, sure, and Rogers certainly has deep enough pockets, but I expect a greater focus on extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr. this offseason.

It's perhaps worth noting that the Blue Jays were also among the suitors referenced in the Freddie Freeman sweepstakes after he hit free agency following the 2021 season. Like Ohtani, he also ultimately chose L.A.

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