It's Game 3 of a four-game homestand for the Los Angeles Angels against the visiting Cleveland Guardians.
The Guardians enter tonight's contest at 7-10, while the Angels — having won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 7-1 — head into tonight with an 11-7 record.
Can the Guardians their bats going tonight? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Angels on Wednesday, April 27.
Guardians vs Angels odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Opening odds for today's matchup were released this morning. The Angels opened up at -200, with Cleveland coming back at +180. There has been little to no movement since then. The total opened up at 7.5 and remained there as well.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Guardians vs Angels predictions
Picks made on 4/27/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Guardians vs Angels game info
• Location: Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA
• Date: Wednesday, April 27, 2022
• First pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports
Guardians vs Angels betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zach Plesac (1-1, 1.53 ERA): Plesac has gotten off to a strong 2022 campaign. He's given up four runs in 17 innings of total action. In his first start of the year, he was nearly flawless against the Kansas City Royals, giving up zero earned runs through five innings. This comes with an ample warning, though. Plesac is due for some regression in a significant way. His ERA has remained very strong despite nearly every advanced metric being in the dumps. You must wonder if this is a spot where the Angels' strong hitters can take advantage.
Shohei Ohtani (1-2, 4.40 ERA): After a dream season last year, Ohtani has returned to Earth a little, at least from a pitching perspective anyway. He bounced back in his previous start against the Astros with zero runs through six, but before then, things were bumpy. Ohtani was hit hard on opening day but managed to escape four innings of baseball with one earned run. Unfortunately, he wasn't so lucky in his next start against the Rangers, where he gave up six earned runs in just over three innings of baseball.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Guardians: No key injuries to report.
Angels: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Angels
Guardians vs Angels picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The handicap for this one is pretty simple. You have a pitcher due for some significant regression against a potent lineup. But, on the other side, you have that same team struggling at the plate with little evidence to suggest they jump out of that slump anytime soon.
One of my favorite metrics to use for wagering is xWOBA. It's one of the most quality ways to detail whether hitters are simply getting unlucky or are making bad contact.
The Guardians' numbers here are in the dumps. They are 25th in baseball, which suggests that Cleveland is not scoring many runs, but they are also making poor contact. It's a pretty big part of why they've only scored one run in their last three games (that or there's something simply in the water out west).
A big part of Ohtani's arsenal at the plate is relying on teams to chase the ball. His "chase rate" rates among the 90 percentile in baseball. That's a problem for the Guardians, who have the 11th-highest chase rate in baseball. Ohtani has historically fared very well against these teams.
This is a good matchup for a team with Trout and Ohtani in the lineup. Plesac is in the 18th percentile of barrel rate, which follows the path of pretty much all of his dreadful metrics. Both Ohtani and Trout have elite barrel rates.
Collectively, the Angels are well above the league average there as well. Need more convincing? Plesac has one of the worst expected batting averages in MLB. That means that teams have been expected to register more hits against him than he's given up based upon the quality of his pitches.
Simply put, he's been lucky. L.A. is well equipped to take advantage of that.
It's infrequent that I would advocate taking a -210 moneyline in baseball, but my projections still see this number as value. I have LA priced at around -250, suggesting a 5% edge.
Prediction: Angels moneyline (-205 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams and 7-2 in the previous nine in L.A. So naturally, we go Under here, right? Not so fast. We're going to step away from the trends for a bit.
I genuinely believe the Angels could eclipse this 7.5 total all by themselves. The lineup is very well suited to get after Plesac early and often in what I'm projecting as a real blow-out.
We can't count on Cleveland for much help here, but Ohtani typically doesn't go too deep into games. If he follows his usual pattern, there's a decent chance that they could knock a few runs across against the Angels' bullpen. While the Guardians struggle to put runs on the board, they don't work to put them into play.
My projections have this going Over the posted total about 65% of the time, with the Angels scoring six to seven of those runs. I see a pretty edge as most of these totals have been juiced to the Under. Give me the Over here as I believe it is off by about an entire run.
Prediction: Over 7.5 (-108 at BetMGM)
Best bet
Conditions are ripe tonight for the ball flying out of the park. The wind will be flying out, and it won't be too cold at Angels Stadium. That's music to the ears of guys like Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. So why not bet a player to hit a homerun?
Shohei Ohtani is simply due, and you won't have a better matchup than he has tonight. There's a reason he's .500 against Plesac and has already taken him deep once in five career plate appearances.
While Ohtani hasn't gotten off to the best start this season from the plate, you have to expect that changes soon. The name of this game is barrel rate. Ohtani was second in MLB last season in that category, and he also was near the top of the league in hard-hitting percentage.
What has Plesac struggled the most with so far this season? Avoiding hard contact. This is a perfect situation for Ohtani to break out of his "slump" and I think he does.
I'll be taking Ohtani to hit a home run tonight. I will also be parlaying it with Trout for a +1,232 payout at FanDuel. I believe both could leave the park tonight but will defer to the value of Ohtani vs. Trout for my stand-alone best bet.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+350 at FanDuel)
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