The Cleveland Guardians hope to avoid a series sweep when they meet the Milwaukee Brewers for Game 3 of their three-game series.
This series has been low-scoring, but my Guardians vs. Brewers predictions expect both offenses to thrive today.
Find out why in my MLB picks for Sunday, August 18.
Guardians vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Over 8 (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers are two of the top offenses in baseball, but neither offense has managed to get much going during this series.
The starting pitching and bullpens have been spectacular during this series. They've combined for 11 runs, but that trend could change for both clubs today.
Cleveland expects righty Ben Lively to man the bump; he’s walked eight with four home runs across his last two starts (8 2/3 innings) which is the main reason why Lively boasts a 1.21 WHIP with an xFIP nearly a run higher than his ERA.
That’s not good for Lively or Cleveland. Milwaukee boasts a high walk rate (9.3%) with the second-highest BABIP (.315) and 4.74 runs scored per home game. The Brewers sticks strike out a ton (23%), but the walks and bombs are concerning.
The Guardians' offense has been in the tank during this series, but they average 4.31 runs per game and have a good matchup today against Brewers starter Colin Rea.
Rea is coming off a rough home start against the Dodgers-he allowed seven earned runs on 10 hits with four of those hits leaving the yard. Serving up bombs at home has been an issue for Rea; 15 of his 20 homers allowed have been at home and eight were against left-handed lumber.
That could be problematic as Cleveland should have seven lefty bats in their lineup. The Guardians have low strikeout and walk rates and with the wind blowing out to right-center, should take advantage of Rea and his flyball tendencies.
Guardians vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8
Jose Ramirez 2+ bases
Guardians moneyline
Playing the Over typically means Jose Ramirez has a big day, and if he does, Cleveland will win this game.
Ramirez has 2+ total bases in four of his last six with an average of two total bases across his last 10. He’s already bashed a bomb in this series and boasts a .229 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Cleveland is 7-1 when Lively pitches on five days' rest, and the Guards boast an above .500 winning percentage as the away team with the best bullpen in baseball. The Brewers have failed to win the third game of a three-game series four times this season and once across two tries at home.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Brewers odds
Guardians vs Brewers live odds
Guardians vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-198) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+164)
- Moneyline: Cleveland (+100) | Milwaukee (-125)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-115) | Under 8.0 (-105)
Guardians vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 123 games (+13.37 Units / 9% ROI) and priced from +100 to +110.
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 123 games (+12.50 Units / 8% ROI) and trading odds from –120 to –135.
- Over/Under markets are mixed; Over bettors can find Over 8 (-115) while Under 8.5 markets are widely available and trading from –115 to –120.
Guardians vs Brewers trend
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 119 games (+16.15 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Brewers.
Guardians vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Great Lakes, Bally Wisconsin |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Ben Lively (10-7, 3.71 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Colin Rea (10-3, 3.38 ERA) |
Guardians vs Brewers latest injuries
Guardians vs Brewers weather
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