Two teams looking to contend in weak divisions will face off on Saturday night as the Cleveland Guardians visit the Chicago Cubs in an interleague matchup.
Game 1 of the series was all Chicago (38-42), as the Cubs broke a four-game losing streak with a 10-1 victory. Cleveland (39-42) wants each of these wins desperately, as the Guardians are just one game back of the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central.
Chicago will hope to have the edge again on Saturday as mild home favorites in the MLB odds, as they send Marcus Stroman to the mound to try and shut down a resilient Cleveland offense. We’ll look at how that might play out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Cubs on July 1.
Guardians vs Cubs odds
Guardians vs Cubs predictions
Marcus Stroman has quietly put together one of the most solid pitching runs in baseball over his last four seasons. Beginning in 2019 — and not including the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, which Stroman opted not to play in — he has never had an ERA over 3.50. He has also been reliable, making 107 starts in that period.
That success has continued into this season, where he leads the league in starts with 17 while putting up an impressive 2.47 ERA. But there’s one thing that Stroman doesn’t do particularly well: strike out batters.
Stroman’s success this season has come in two areas. First, he’s holding opponents to just 6.6 hits per nine innings. His WHIP would be off the charts if it weren’t for the fact that he’s also walking 3.1 batters a game, but it’s still at a strong 1.078. He’s also allowing just 0.4 homers per nine innings, which has prevented opponents from taking advantage of the few hits they do get.
However, Stroman is striking out just 7.5 batters per nine innings this season. That’s a relatively low number, and his lowest since 2018. And while that’s still acceptable for a starting pitcher even in 2023, it doesn’t bode well against the Cleveland lineup, at least in one respect.
The Guardians don’t strike out a lot. They’re averaging just 7.13 strikeouts per game, the second-lowest total in all of MLB. This hasn’t translated into a lot of offense overall, but Cleveland does put the ball in play against virtually every pitcher it faces.
That job will be even easier against Stroman, who is not a strikeout pitcher. The Guardians also perform slightly better against right-handed pitching, striking out in only 18.9% of their plate appearances.
Overall, this has me looking to make an aggressive play in the MLB player props for tonight’s game.
Stroman’s strikeout total has been set at just 3.5. This is a matchup that isn’t conducive to a lot of swings and misses, so I’m taking those generous odds and betting on the Guardians to make a lot of contact tonight, even if it’s soft. Let’s go with the Under on Stroman’s strikeouts, which is being offered at plus money at several sportsbooks.
My best bet: Stroman Under 3.5 strikeouts (+117)
Guardians vs Cubs same-game parlay
Stroman Under 3.5 strikeouts
Guardians +1.5
Under 8
We can build a solid same-game parlay around my best bet tonight, especially with a third pick that doesn’t obviously correlate with the strikeout prop. We’ll start by once against taking Stroman to hit the Under at 3.5 strikeouts, counting on both him and Cleveland to play to contact while he’s in the game.
Next, I’m taking the Guardians at +1.5 on the run line. I don’t know that the Guardians will win this game even if Stroman isn’t mowing them down, but they should be able to string together enough hits to score once in a while. Rookie Tanner Bibee should also be able to keep Cleveland in the game, as he’s off to a strong start in his first MLB season.
Finally, let’s go with the Under at 8 runs. Just because Stroman isn’t striking out batters doesn’t mean he can’t pitch effectively, and Bibee should be able to compete against the Cubs as well. Neither team is a powerhouse on offense, with Cleveland being particularly anemic, scoring just 3.98 runs per game. The Under is a great way to round out our SGP.
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Guardians vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Cubs opened this game as -134 favorites. That line has barely moved, with the consensus moneyline now around Chicago -135. Looking around the board at different sites, you can get the Cubs with odds as good as -125, or take the Guardians up to +117.
While these two teams are both in contention in their divisions, neither has been good this year, either on the field or for bettors. Cleveland has lost around 10 bets on the moneyline in 2023, while the Cubs are only slightly better, dropping four units this season.
I don’t love the moneyline in this game, but I think the Guardians are the smarter play. This pitching matchup could go either way, and we can get a solid plus number on Bibee and Cleveland. I’m leaning towards the Guardians at this price.
The Over/Under tonight opened at 7.5 runs. However, that number has jumped up to a flat 8 across the board, and not everyone is even favoriting the Under at that higher total. As of this writing, you can find -105 on the Over, but also do as well as -106 on the Under by shopping around.
Both teams have tilted towards the Under this year, particularly the Guardians. The Under is 46-31-4 in Cleveland’s games, while also going 40-38-2 when the Cubs play.
I don’t think there’s any reason for the line to have moved up a half-run when we have two solid pitchers and neither lineup is particularly strong. Stroman and Bibee could both do well tonight, and I expect this to be a low-scoring affair. I’m definitely leaning towards the Under here.
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Trend to know
Opposing starting pitchers have recorded three strikeouts or less in four of Cleveland’s last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Cubs
Guardians vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Saturday, July 1, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Tanner Bibee (4-2, 3.79 ERA): The 24-year-old Bibee made his MLB debut with the Guardians in late April, and has mostly impressed since then. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, averaging just 8.8 per nine innings, but he tries to throw to soft contact and is already finding success with that approach thanks to a solid array of breaking balls. Bibee last threw on June 24 against the Milwaukee Brewers, allowing one earned run on three hits over six innings of work.
Marcus Stroman (9-5, 2.47 ERA): The venerable Stroman is once against putting up strong numbers in 2023, and may even be in line for his second career All-Star Game appearance. He has done an excellent just of preventing hard contact, allowing just five home runs in 102 innings of work in 2023. His control has strangely suffered — he’s allowing 3.1 walks per nine innings — but that hasn’t hurt him too much yet. Stroman is coming off one of his worst outings of the year, allowing six runs (three earned) in 3 1/3 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 25.
