A couple of clubs trending in different directions begin a three-game set this afternoon when the Chicago Cubs welcome the Cleveland Guardians to Wrigley Field. Chicago has lost four straight games while Cleveland is 7-3 over its last 10 outings.
The Cubs will be sending Justin Steele to the mound, who’s been one of the strongest starters in the majors this season.
Will Steele help Chicago snap its losing skid? We’ll discuss in our Guardians vs. Cubs MLB picks and predictions for Friday, June 30.
Guardians vs Cubs odds
Guardians vs Cubs predictions
The Cubs come limping into today’s contest, averaging just 3.00 runs per game while giving up 5.75 runs per contest during their losing streak. Interestingly, pitching has actually been a strength for Chicago this month, as the club’s 3.47 ERA ranks fifth in the majors in June. Some of that credit can be given to Justin Steele, who’s been great in each of his June starts.
The southpaw suffered a forearm strain early this month but bounced back to make two starts, holding his opponents to a combined 10 hits and three earned runs over 11 innings. Steele has been putting up quality starts all season long for Chicago, allowing more than two earned runs in just three of his 14 outings.
While the Guardians have been rolling, their offense has generally slowed down of late. Outside of a 14-run win against the Royals on Wednesday, they’ve scored just 2.80 runs per game over their last five contests.
Putting two and two together, I expect Steele to have another strong outing and help Chicago hold Cleveland to Under 3.5 runs.
My best bet: Guardians Under 3.5 runs (-105 at DraftKings)
Guardians vs Cubs same-game parlay
Guardians Under 3.5 Runs (-105)
Guardians Under 0.5 Runs in 1st Inning (-310)
Madrigal To Get A Hit (-280)
Keeping with the theme of our best bet, I’m also looking for Steele to pitch a scoreless first inning. The Cubs starter has allowed a run in the opening inning just three times in 14 starts this season.
Meanwhile, Nick Madrigal has been scorching hot at the plate over the last week, batting .421 with a team-leading eight hits for Chicago. The third baseman has hits in seven of his last eight games and should be a pretty safe bet to record another today against Cal Quantrill, who’s allowed six-plus hits in eight of 11 starts.
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Guardians vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
MLB odds opened the Cubs as the -136 home favorite and got a significant bump by Friday morning, settling at -175 at most books while the total stuck at 8.5 runs.
While Cleveland has undoubtedly been the better team of late, I’m going to side with the oddsmakers and give the nod to Chicago based on the pitching matchup. Steele ranks sixth in the majors with a 2.62 ERA and tied for 10th with a 1.06 WHIP, while Cal Quantrill is having the worst statistical season of his career. The Guardians starter has a 5.61 ERA and will be returning to the mound for the first time in a month following a shoulder injury.
I think the Under will be the play today, as both offenses have been sluggish of late. As mentioned, Chicago is averaging just three runs during a four-game skid while Cleveland has scored even less than that over its last six games (barring its 14-1 win over Kansas City).
While the Cubs may be able to get some offense going against Quantrill, I expect Steele to help keep today’s total down.
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Trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Cubs
Guardians vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Friday, June 30, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Great Lakes, Marquee |
Starting pitchers
Cal Quantrill (2-4, 5.61 ERA): Quantrill has had a rough season so far in terms of both results and health. Shoulder inflammation kept the right-hander out for the last month, while his most recent start was his worst of the season. He gave up eight hits and eight earned runs to the Orioles over just 4.1 innings of work back on May 30.
Justin Steele (8-2, 2.62 ERA): Along with Marcus Stroman, Steele has filled out a strong one-two punch at the top of the rotation for Chicago this season. Steele has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts while giving up five hits or less in five of his last six outings.
