We've got a busy day of baseball with all 30 teams in action, and the final game on the MLB odds board is a showdown between the Cleveland Guardians and the Arizona Diamondbacks. This is the second contest in a three-game set at Chase Field, with Arizona prevailing 5-1 last night.
The Guardians are sending former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber to the mound, but the D-Backs are surprisingly atop the NL West and won't be an easy squad to knock off at home. Here are my best free Guardians vs. Diamondbacks MLB picks and predictions for June 17.
Guardians vs Diamondbacks odds
Guardians vs Diamondbacks predictions
The Arizona Diamondbacks are sending lefty Tommy Henry to the hill for this showdown. The second-year pitcher has struggled this month, allowing five runs in back-to-back starts against the Phillies and Nationals.
Henry has some pretty solid analytics this season, but his expected ERA still sits at 4.64. The biggest problem with Henry is that he relies primarily on his four-seamer (throwing it 51% of the time), but ranks in the Bottom 20th percentile in both fastball velocity and spin. It should come as no surprise that opponents are making him pay for that by slugging .662 against that pitch.
While the Cleveland Guardians are just 28th in the majors in OPS (.672), they have been hitting much better lately with an OPS of .778 over the last 15 days. With Henry throwing tasty fastball offerings over the middle of the plate, Cleveland should be able to get to him for at least three earned runs.
My best bet: Tommy Henry Over 2.5 earned runs (-115)
Guardians vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay
Tommy Henry Over 2.5 earned runs
Amed Rosario Under 1.5 hits
Shane Biever Under 2.5 earned runs
Although I'm fading Henry, I don't think every Cleveland hitter is going to mash against him, and the Under 1.5 hits prop for Amed Rosario is simply too good to pass up. Rosario is batting well against southpaws this year, but he has just four multi-hit games in his last 31 contests. This is a guy who is hitting .237 this season and has a batting average of just .177 against four-seamers.
Guardians starter Shane Bieber isn't quite the elite pitcher he was a few years ago, but he's still a reliable arm that has an impressive 3.29 ERA in 14 starts. The O/U on his earned runs allowed today is at 2.5, a number he has gone below in seven of his last nine starts.
While the Diamondbacks have been one of the most productive teams at the dish this year, they are just 25th in barrel rate while ranking 20th in hard-hit rate, which indicates that regression might be on the horizon.
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Guardians vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Guardians opened as -135 road favorites for this showdown but money has poured in on the home side, shortening the line to -115.
The Diamondbacks have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year, and won 5-1 last night to improve to 42-28. They went from the worst team in the majors in 2021 to a 74-88 record last year, and now boast a three-game lead atop the NL West despite only minor offseason changes.
The Guardians are five games below .500, and while they've had solid pitching, their soft-hitting lineup has often let them down.
The total opened at 9 and has ticked down to 8.5 as of 2 p.m. ET. The D-Backs are fifth in the majors in scoring with 5.14 runs per game. However, that number dips to 4.79 at home and their statcast analytics suggest that they could be held in check by Bieber and a Guardians bullpen that has an impressive 3.04 ERA.
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Trend to know
The Guardians are 5-2 in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Diamondbacks
Guardians vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Saturday, June 17, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Starting pitchers
Shane Bieber (5-3, 3.29 ERA): Bieber has seen his strikeout rate steadily decline over the last few years, and it currently sits at just 17.6% after topping out at 41.1% in 2020. Nonetheless, he can still generate outs and has a 1.22 WHIP with a 3.82 FIP in 14 starts this year. He's coming off his best performance of the season, holding the Astros to three hits in seven innings of shutout ball.
Tommy Henry (3-1, 4.86 ERA): The sophomore has a 1.38 WHIP with a 5.62 FIP in 50 innings this season. He ranks in the Top 20th percentile in hard hit rate and average exit velocity but doesn't miss many bats with a strikeout rate of just 15.6%. Henry has surrendered 14 hits and 10 runs in nine innings this month.
