The Cleveland Guardians and Los Angeles Dodgers meet for the first time since 2017 when the storied franchises clash in Game 1 of a three-game series at Dodger Stadium on Friday night.
The Dodgers (39-23) sit in second in the NL West, a half-game behind the Padres, and swept the Los Angeles Angels in a two-game set prior to Friday’s matchup. Oddsmakers project L.A. to continue its home domination on Friday, with MLB betting lines setting it as a -300 favorite.
Here are our best free Guardians vs. Dodgers MLB picks and predictions for June 17.
Guardians vs Dodgers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers opened as heavy favorites, with the Over set at 8.0. As of 9 a.m. ET, the total has remained steady, while the line has moved slightly in favor of Cleveland, with the Dodgers now listed as a -255 favorite.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Guardians vs Dodgers predictions
Picks made on 6/17/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Guardians vs Dodgers game info
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Friday, June 17, 2022
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Apple TV+
Guardians vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zach Plesac (2-4, 4.70 ERA): The right-hander last appeared in a June 11 loss to Oakland in which he pitched six innings, gave up eight hits and three earned runs, and struck out a pair of batters. Two starts back, he recorded eight strikeouts while giving up four hits and two runs over six innings in a 3-2 victory over AL East bottom-dweller Baltimore, one of the worst hitting teams in the league.
Plesac will make his 12th start of the season on Friday, with a two-game quality start streak on the line. He averages 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings, while opponents are hitting .269 against him.
Clayton Kershaw (4-1, 2.12 ERA): The three-time NL Cy Young Award winner earned his first loss of the season on Saturday, when Kershaw gave up two earned runs and three hits in four innings against the San Francisco Giants, who swept the Dodgers in a three-game road slate.
He’ll look to bounce back in his seventh start of the season. Kershaw has a 0.79 WHIP and a 36-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 34 innings pitched. He has faced Cleveland twice before in his career, the last time being in 2017, when he struck out four and surrendered two earned runs in a 7-5 victory that featured Trevor Bauer on the opposing side.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Guardians: Aaron Civale SP (Out), C. Morris SP (Out), Franmil Reyes RF (Out), Carlos Vargas SP (Out).
Dodgers: Kevin Pillar CF (Out), Edwin Rios 3B (Out), Jimmy Nelson RP (Out), Victor Gonzalez RP (Out), Tommy Kahnle RP (Out), Blake Treinen RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Guardians are 2-6 SU in their last eight games as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Dodgers
Guardians vs Dodgers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Cleveland comes in hot, having won 14 of its last 18, including three straight on the road in Colorado and now sits two games behind the Twins in the AL Central. No team strikes out less than this one (6.73 per contest), and the Guardians own the eighth-best batting average in the league.
However, against starting pitchers with a WHIP less than 1.15, Cleveland is 0-4 straight up in its last four games. Jose Ramirez will bring an eight-game extra-base hit streak into this battle with the Dodgers, which will pit him against another Top-10 power hitter in Mookie Betts, who ranks first in MLB in runs (53) and seventh in home runs, with 17, one more than Ramirez.
The key difference in Friday’s game will be on the mound, with Kershaw the superior pitcher in this interleague matchup. The Dodgers had been cold at the plate recently but found a spark in their most recent win against the Angels, with Will Smith launching a three-run homer in the first and Trea Turner recording a solo shot in the third of a 4-1 win. Los Angeles averages 1.2 homers per game at home along with 3.2 extra-base hits.
The Dodgers will put it all together against Plesac to get their third consecutive victory amid a five-game homestand.
Prediction: Dodgers moneyline (-255 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
Scoring has not come easy for the Dodgers in their last five games, in which they totaled 10 runs and went scoreless with five hits against the Giants in the final game of their three-game set.
The Guardians have averaged 5.2 runs over their last five against two of the worst teams in the league, and confronting stiffer competition should bring Cleveland down a notch.
The Under is 4-1 in Cleveland’s last five versus teams with a winning record and 3-0-1 in the team’s last four road games. Meanwhile, the Under has hit in four of the Dodgers’ last five games overall and all five times the total was set between 7.0 and 8.5 in their last five matchups.
Both teams rank in the Top 10 in opponent hits and runs per game, while the Dodgers are fifth in opponent slugging percentage.
Prediction: Under 8 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
While Plesac has given up three earned runs or fewer through six innings in his last three appearances, all three of those starts came against sub-.500 teams.
Against the AL West-leading Astros in late May, he lasted 4.2 innings after allowing nine hits and seven runs in a 7-3 defeat, while the Padres tallied five hits and five runs in a 5-4 loss for Cleveland that saw Plesac pitch five frames.
The Dodgers showed signs of life early in Wednesday’s cross-town meeting with the Angels to score four runs through the third inning against Reid Detmers (2-3, 4.25 ERA). I expect a similar showing from out the gate Friday night when the Dodgers square up against Plesac.
Pick: Dodgers team total first 5 innings Over 2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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