Guardians vs Dodgers Picks and Predictions: Dodgers Offense Stays in Drought

Don’t look now, but the Cleveland Guardians are riding a heater. They collected their fifth straight win last night versus Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers — their 14th victory in their last 17 games. 

The Guardians are making a serious push for the division lead but they'll be in tough today facing LA’s Julio Urias and being priced as +198 underdogs. Can the Guardians stay perfect on their current nine-game road trip, or can the Dodgers grab just their fifth victory over their last 12 games?

Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Dodgers on Saturday, June 18. 

Guardians vs Dodgers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Dodgers opened at -220 and have been bet down to -245 as of this morning (-1.5 at -105). They closed as -262 favorites last night.

The total opened at 8, leaning to the Under, but is starting to trend towards the Over.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Guardians vs Dodgers predictions

• Prediction: Guardians ML (+198)
• Prediction: Under 8 (-105)
• Best bet: Quantrill Over 16.5 total outs (-115)

Picks made on 6/18/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Guardians vs Dodgers game info

• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Saturday, June 18, 2022
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Guardians vs Dodgers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Cal Quantrill (4-3, 3.38 ERA): Quantrill has won three straight starts and has allowed more than three runs in just one of his 11 starts this season. The sinker/cutter pitcher doesn’t miss many bats but he does get deep into games, having recorded at least 18 outs in nine straight starts. That could go a long way today as the Cleveland bullpen has been busy of late with all the winning. 

Julio Urias (3-6, 2.80 ERA): Urias will be making his 13th start tonight and despite a shiny 2.80 ERA, Urias has not received much run support, as he has taken the loss in five of his last seven starts and the Dodgers are 2-7 SU in his last nine starts. With those results, it’s no surprise that the Under is 9-3 on the season when the lefty starts. The Guardians are one of the worst hitting teams vs. left-handed pitching with the league’s 27th-ranked OPS. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Guardians: James Karinchak RP (Out).
Dodgers: Mookie Betts OF (Questionable), Jimmy Nelson RP (Out), Tommy Kahnle RP (Out), Blake Treinen RP (Out). 
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0-1 in the Dodgers’ last seven games following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Dodgers

Guardians vs Dodgers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Guardians are legit. They went up to the altitude of Colorado, swept the Rockies and then came down from the mountains and won in extras last night as big underdogs versus the Dodgers. Everything is golden in the Guardians’ world, while things haven’t been great for the Dodgers of late. 

Los Angeles is still the World Series odds favorite but some poor results of late have us losing confidence, especially as hefty favorites once again. The Dodgers bullpen is banged-up with injuries to Jimmy Nelson, Tommy Kahnle and Blake Treinen, the offense has scored more than four runs just three times over the last 18 games, and currently sits 27th in weighted run created (wRC) over the last two weeks. Now Mookie Betts might be on the shelf after getting scratched yesterday with a rib bruise.

The Dodgers currently sit second in the division, have lost four of their last six, and are 6-10 SU in their last 16 games including 4-6 SU in their last 10 at home. This could be a low point in the Dodgers’ season. They will turn things around, but today might be another good day to get on the plus-money train of their opponent.

Cleveland might be the hottest team in baseball right now aside from the Yankees. They’ve won 14 of their last 17 games and have begun their nine-game road trip 4-0 SU. Last night’s win as +234 underdogs was their longest win of the season and with the Dodgers’ offense hibernating and a pitching matchup that is more neutral than it is favorable for the Dodgers, we’re backing the Cleveland wagon today in the afternoon sun on the West Coast.

With all the winning the Guardians have been doing, the bullpen has been used heavily, and a trip to the altitude of Colorado likely didn’t help. But Cleveland should have all four of its top relievers available today after getting creative with the bullpen in last night’s victory. Quantrill could also aid the relievers and is almost a sure bet to get a quality start.

The Cleveland starter has recorded a quality start in eight of his last nine, and although he won’t fool many batters with his low-90 offerings, batters are slugging just .349 off the righty and are swinging at pitches outside the zone at one of the highest rates in the league. Quantrill is a great pitcher to back as a heavy underdog. 

Quantirll will oppose Julio Urias, who has pitched well but has gotten zero support from his offense, as the Dodgers have lost seven of his last nine starts despite the lefty owning a sub-3.00 ERA. Lately, Urias has struggled to keep the ball in the park and has allowed five homers over his last 17-plus innings.

The Cleveland offense did just enough to win last night with a 2-1 extra-inning victory. Jose Ramirez is arguably the best hitter in the American League and leads an offense that doesn’t have much pop, but it strikes out at the lowest rate in baseball and hits for a decent average. It is also healthy and confident.

The Dodgers wasted Clayton Kershaw's fine performance yesterday, and with an offense that's struggling and now missing Betts, we’re happy to ride +198 with one of the best team ERAs in baseball, and a squad playing with confidence. 

Prediction: Guardians moneyline (+198 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

The Dodgers are one of the best Under teams in baseball with a 25-34-4 O/U on the season but they have been even more profitable of late as the offense sputters. Over their last 19 games, the Under is a very appetizing 13-4-2.

Urias has been an Under machine this year as he is just one of 28 pitchers with a sub-3.00 ERA on the season. Over his last 11 starts, he's 9-1-1 to the Under. He can keep this average Cleveland offense at bay today, and although the lefty has been giving up some long balls lately, Cleveland is one of the worst home-run hitting teams in baseball and struggles versus left-handed pitching.

The Guardians have been winning some close games of late and a lot of that has to do with their great pitching. The Guardians have the league’s No. 7 team ERA and if Quantrill can keep getting soft contact and hand things over to a Cleveland bullpen that has the third-best ERA in baseball, keeping this game tight and low-scoring shouldn’t be a problem. 

Prediction: Under 8 (-105 at bet365) 

Best bet

Quantrill has recorded at least 18 outs in nine straight starts. He’s gone over 18 outs in five of those nine games as well. He recorded 18 outs in his last start, where he needed only 90 pitches, and went seven innings on 90 pitches in the outing before that.

Quantrill doesn’t waste many pitches, looks for contact and gets plenty of weakly-hit balls. He sits in the top 18% in hard-hit rate and his ability to get batters to chase pitches creates a lot of easy outs. 

Despite giving up two solo home runs in the 7th inning of his quality start, Cal Quantrill doesn't regret his aggressive approach with a four-run lead.#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/IJEcMlb7mv

— Bally Sports Cleveland (@BallySportsCLE) June 7, 2022

The Cleveland righty will get to face a lineup that has scored 11 runs over its last six games and now will likely be without its leadoff hitter in Mookie Betts, who is considered day-to-day.

Trea Turner went 3-for-5 yesterday but the rest of the lineup went a combined 5-for-33, with Cody Bellinger getting two of those hits. The Dodgers also finished 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position.

With Quantrill’s total outs market sitting at 16.5, we are extremely high on the right-hander hitting this Over in the afternoon air at Dodger Stadium, where the humidity is low and the temperature is in the mid-70s. 

Pick: Quantrill Over 16.5 total outs (-115 at Caesars)

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