The Cleveland Guardians and San Diego Padres close out a short two-game series at Petco Park on Wednesday afternoon. Cleveland won 3-1 last night despite generating just four hits.
Oddsmakers expect the home side to bounce back in the finale with San Diego installed as a -170 favorite for today's interleague showdown.
Here are our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Padres on August 24.
Guardians vs Padres odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line hit the board with the Padres installed as around -160 home favorites and has stayed fairly steady, with some books shortening to -155, and others growing to approximately -165. The Over/Under opened at 7.5 and while it's still sitting at the same number, the Under is now juiced to -120 at most books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Guardians vs Padres predictions
Picks made on 8/24/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Guardians vs Padres game info
• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Wednesday, August 24, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Great Lakes, Bally Sports San Diego
Guardians vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Cal Quantrill (9-5, 3.77 ERA): The righty has pitched to a 1.22 WHIP with an opponent batting average of .253 in 23 starts this year. In four starts this month, Quantrill has been wildly inconsistent. In two outings against subpar offenses in the Tigers and Diamondbacks, he surrendered eight runs across 12 innings, but in a pair of outings against the dangerous Blue Jays and Astros lineups, he combined to allow just four hits through 13 innings of shutout ball.
Blake Snell (5-6, 3.76 ERA): The 2018 AL Cy Young winner has never recaptured his magic from that brilliant season with the Rays. Snell has a 1.30 WHIP and an OBA of .227 in 16 starts this year but his average exit velocity and walk rate have been extremely poor. He has been much better over the last two months, pitching to a 2.42 ERA with 74 strikeouts in 48 1-3 innings.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1 in the Guardians' last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Padres
Guardians vs Padres picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Padres' pitcher Mike Clevinger allowed just two hits in six innings last night, but the Guardians went deep on both of them, leading to a 3-1 victory and Cleveland's 11th win in the last 15 games.
At 65-56, the Guardians have a three-game lead atop the AL Central. Meanwhile, the Padres are 7-11 in their last 18 games but are still holding on to the sixth-best record in the National League at 68-57.
Neither side has impressed at the plate this season, with Cleveland tied for 17th in the majors with an OPS of .699, and San Diego just behind them with an OPS of .697.
That said, the Friars have been making better contact in recent weeks, ranking fifth in the majors in OPS over the last 15 days (.746) while the Guardians are 18th (.699).
The Friars also have the edge on the mound, where lefty Blake Snell gets the start against Cleveland right-hander Cal Quantrill. Although their ERA numbers are virtually identical, Snell's expected ERA of 3.16 is significantly better than Quantrill's xERA of 4.44, and there's a massive difference between expected batting average as well (Snell sitting at .207 and Quantrill at .263).
Cleveland batters have also been dreadful against southpaws like Snell, ranking second-last in the majors with an OPS of .629 vs. left-handed pitchers. Grab the Padres on the moneyline.
Prediction: Padres moneyline (-155 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
These teams combined for just 10 hits and four runs last night, and Under trends abound for both sides. The Padres are 8-2 to the Under in their last 10 games overall while the Guardians have gone Over the total just once in their previous seven contests on the road.
San Diego averages 4.37 runs per game, and while that's partially due to the run-suppressing nature of its home field, the fact it ranks 20th in the majors in hard-hit rate and 23rd in Barrels per Plate Appearance indicates it simply doesn't hit the ball that well.
Sure, Manny Machado is one of the best sluggers in the game, but the year-long absence of Fernando Tatis Jr. hurts, and recently acquired superstar Juan Soto is listed as questionable after missing yesterday's game with back problems.
The Guardians have been even worse when it comes to hitting analytics, ranking dead last in the majors in both hard-hit rate and Brls/PA percentage.
Although the starting pitchers for both sides have been a bit up-and-down this year, Snell has looked very sharp over his last six starts pitching to a 1.60 ERA.
Both clubs have a solid group of relievers with the Guardians rated as the eighth-best bullpen in the majors according to THE BAT analytics and the Padres 10th. I'm leaning towards the Under here.
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Quantrill isn't going to be mistaken for an ace anytime soon, but he has been giving the Guardians some quality innings this year. Quantrill has logged at least 18 outs in 16 of his last 21 starts — including all four of his starts this month.
He'll have Luke Maile as his catcher this game, which is great news for him with Maile grading out as a good pitch framer according to The Bat projection system.
The Padres also plate just 3.89 runs per game at home so we don't see them chasing Quantrill early. Take the Over 17.5 on his outs today.
Cal Quantrill Prop Pick: Over 17.5 outs (-110)
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