Guardians vs Royals Picks and Predictions: Bieber Contains KC Bats

A 2022 MLB season that we weren't even sure we would get begins on Thursday with seven games on the Opening Day slate.

One of the first games on the MLB betting board this year will take place at Kauffman Stadium with the Kansas City Royals hosting the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland will send 2020 Cy Young winner Shane Bieber to the mound for this AL Central clash and enter as slim -125 road favorites.

Here are our best free Guardians vs. Royals MLB picks and predictions for April 7, with the first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET.

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Guardians vs Royals odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board with Cleveland installed as a -125 favorite with the Over/Under at 8 or 8.5 depending on the book. Early money has come in on Cleveland and the Under, shifting the moneyline as high as Cleveland -138 and the total as low as 7.5 at some books.

That said, if you shop around, several books are still pricing the Guardians at -125 and a few still have the total at 8 as of 9 a.m. ET. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Guardians vs Royals predictions

• Prediction: Guardians ML (-125)
• Prediction: Under 8 (-115)
• Best bet: F5 Under 4 (-115)

Picks made on 4/07/2022 at 8:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Guardians vs Royals game info

• Location: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO 
• Date: Thursday, April 7, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports

Guardians vs Royals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Shane Bieber RHP (2021: 7-4, 3.17 ERA): Bieber is coming off a down year (by his lofty standards) in 2021 as he dealt with a shoulder injury which limited him to 16 starts. He still struck out 134 batters in just 96.2 innings and posted an impressive 3.03 FIP.

Bieber says that his shoulder has been at 100% for a while now as he gets ready to make his third consecutive Opening Day start. The Beebs actually started the opener against KC in 2020, pitching six scoreless innings and fanning 14 batters. 

Zack Greinke RHP (2021: 11-6, 4.16 ERA): Greinke signed with the Royals in the offseason, coming back to the club where he spent the first seven years of his MLB career. The 38-year-old seems to be slowly fading with age and is coming off a year with the Astros where he had a middling 4.71 FIP and posted his lowest strikeout percentage since 2005.

Greinke actually started on Opening Day at this stadium 12 years ago, during his first stint with Kansas City. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Guardians: Austin Hedges C (Questionable), Josh Naylor RF (Out), James Karinchak RP (Out), Luke Maile C (Out).
Royals: Tyler Zuber RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Guardians are 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Kansas City. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Royals.

Guardians vs Royals picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

It was a forgettable 2021 season for both of these squads, with Cleveland finishing below .500 for the first time since 2012 and the Royals missing the postseason for the sixth straight year with a 74-88 record. 

Betting on Opening Day can always be tough, but at least we don't need to do too much projecting for these sides since their lineups are largely the same from last season. The Royals' biggest offseason addition was signing starter Zack Greinke three weeks ago and he'll toe the mound today. 

However, any batting improvement from Kansas City will have to come from inside the organization, with Bobby Whitt Jr. set to make his big league debut after a spectacular spring. Although the top prospect in baseball will be a shot of adrenaline to the Royals' mediocre group of sluggers, there's only so much you can expect from a 21-year-old in his debut, especially against a pitcher like Bieber. 

Biebs is coming off a frustrating season where he battled through a shoulder injury, but he's just two years removed from a Cy Young campaign where he dominated batters with a 1.63 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Even last year, he got off to a good start, and now that he's back to full strength, he should be able to contain a Royals lineup that finished last season with the sixth-worst OPS (.701) in the majors.  

Greinke is still a reliable starter, but at this stage of his career, the six-time All-Star isn't comparable to a stud like Bieber. The righty has been steadily declining and is coming off a middling season with the Astros.

We're not expecting much from either side offensively in this one, so we'll lean towards the team with the superior starter. It doesn't hurt that the Guardians owned this division rivalry last season, going 14-5 overall and winning eight of 10 contests at Kauffman Stadium. 

Prediction: Guardians ML (-125 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

Thanks to guys like Nicky Lopez and Whit Merrifield, the Royals were eighth in the majors in batting average (.248) and first in steals (124) last season. However, despite catcher Salvador Perez clubbing 48 homers, they mustered just 163 dingers as a team and also had the fewest walks in the majors. 

Cleveland's lineup was pretty much the exact opposite. It did a decent job of hitting with power (ranking 12th in home runs and 15th in slugging percentage) but had trouble making contact and was just 27th in the bigs with an OBP of .304. 

The end result was the same for both teams: not many runs scored. Cleveland finished the season 18th in the majors with 4.43 runs per game while KC was 24th with 4.23. 

The Guardians finally decided to shell out money to retain an All-Star by signing Jose Ramirez to a five-year $124 million extension yesterday. That said, Cleveland did nothing to actually upgrade its lineup, so expect another year without any consistency at the plate. 

With both teams bringing out their best pitchers for Opening Day and temperatures expected to hover around a chilly 44 degrees with a strong crosswind, we're taking the Under

Prediction: Under 8 (-115 at FanDuel)

Best bet

One thing that makes us a bit hesitant to take the Under is that both bullpens have question marks (depth behind closer Emmanuel Clase for Cleveland and command for Kansas City's hard-throwers). But one way to get around that is by betting the Under on the first five innings total. 

This has actually been a favorite bet of the Covers team for the last few years whenever Bieber gets the start. The Biebs' usual strong play at the beginning of games and Cleveland's ineffective offense combined to make this an extremely profitable play from 2019 through the first couple months of 2021. 

Keep in mind that prior to Bieber straining his shoulder in a June loss to Seattle, he had pitched to a 2.96 ERA with a whopping 122 strikeouts in 85 innings through his first 13 starts.

Given that Bieber pitched fewer than five total innings this spring, we're not sure how deep he'll pitch in his first non-restricted start since last June, but he should contain the Royals in the early going. At the same time, his teammates likely aren't going to give him much run support. 

We've got a case of the Bieber Fever tonight, as we take the Under on the first five innings.

Pick: First five innings Under 4 (-115 at DraftKings)

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