The 2024 ALCS will pit the AL Central champion Cleveland Guardians against the AL East champion New York Yankees. The Guardians are in search of their first pennant since 2016, while the Yankees are mired in a drought dating back to 2009.
I'll tell you how these teams stack up and weigh it all against the MLB odds as I search for the best betting value on the board in my MLB picks for this best-of-seven series.
Guardians vs Yankees series odds
| Market | ||
|---|---|---|
 Guardians (+160) |
To win |  Yankees (-190) |
| Guardians +1.5 games (-125) |
Handicap | Yankees -1.5 games (+105) |
| Over 44.5 (-105) | Total runs | Under 44.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 10-13.
Guardians vs Yankees series preview
Cleveland Guardians breakdown
Strengths
The Cleveland Guardians relief corps had a 2.57 ERA in the regular season, the fourth-best mark in the Wild Card era (since 1995). Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and Tim Herrin are the bridge to All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase, who had 47 saves on the year. While he was roughed up by the Tigers in Game 2 of the ALDS, he made three other productive appearances, picking up a pair of saves.
Cleveland's lineup may not be among the most productive in the game, but they are disciplined. Only three teams struck out fewer times than the Guardians in 2024.
The Guardians also press the issue on the basepaths, as they ranked fifth in stolen bases this year. The multitalented Jose Ramirez paced the club with 41 swiped bags, while Andres Gimenez had 31. Ramirez also brings power in the three-hole (39 homers), and always looming behind him is Josh Naylor (31 homers).
Steven Kwan is one of the best table-setters there is and was Cleveland's hottest hitter in the ALDS, going 11-for-21 (.524).
Weaknesses
The Guardians figure to ride their relievers hard vs. the New York Yankees as ALDS starters Tanner Bibee, Matthew Boyd, and Alex Cobb all failed to reach the 15-out threshold. They'll likely need to press a fourth starter like Ben Lively into duty, or they may have to go with a bullpen game at some point and further burden their relief arms.
Cleveland had a team OPS of .703 on the year, below the league average of .711. The Guardians posted a .638 OPS as a team in the ALDS.
The Guardians barely scraped by a truly uninspiring Tigers team while riding the rest advantage as well as home field. They'll have neither of those vs. the Yankees.
X-factor: Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez has been one of the American League's best players in recent years, but his postseason performances have left plenty to be desired.
His OPS over 140 playoff at-bats dating back to 2016 is a paltry .656. By contrast, his career OPS is .872.
Ramirez is off to a mediocre start in this year's postseason, going 3-for-16 with a home run. If he doesn't come up big vs. the Yankees, the Guardians will more than likely be watching the World Series from their couch.
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New York Yankees breakdown
Strengths
The Yankees rotation has a comparative advantage at a minimum in this series.
Gerrit Cole guided the Yankees to two wins in the ALDS and toyed with the Guardians in his lone start against them this year (one hit allowed over six shutout innings). He will have to wait his turn in this series, however, with the inconsistent Carlos Rodon getting the nod in Game 1. Rodon has held Cleveland's hitters to a .210 average in previous meetings.
Behind this pairing is Clarke Schmidt, who was a revelation this year, and possibly Nestor Cortes, who is working his way back from an injury. Rookie of the Year odds candidate Luis Gil is also an option to eat some innings.
But I'm burying the lede here.
The Yankees have arguably the best one-two punch in baseball in Juan Soto and Aaron Judge in their lineup. While Giancarlo Stanton outshone them in the ALDS, Soto (.288, 41 homers, 109 RBI) and Judge (.322, 58 homers, 144 RBI) made life miserable for opposing pitchers all year long.
Weaknesses
The Yankees may have a comparative starting pitching advantage, but they could be in trouble if they're trailing late.
While the Royals failed to solve the Bombers bullpen, this unit is not as deep as Cleveland's. Every appearance by erstwhile closer Clay Holmes is a mini-heart attack for Yankees fans.
Manager Aaron Boone can only ride Luke Weaver so much.
The Yankees have been surprisingly poor at hitting lefties, which could put them in trouble vs. Boyd and Herrin. They hit .253 as a team vs. righties in the regular season (fifth) but just .235 vs. southpaws (23rd).
X-factor: Anthony Volpe
While Stanton and Jazz Chisholm were the Yankees drawing the most headlines during the ALDS, Anthony Volpe quietly had a much-needed solid series.
Volpe finished the regular season with the 14th-lowest on-base percentage (.293) and 12th-lowest OPS (.657) among qualified hitters while getting bumped down the leadoff spot to the seven-hole. But his eye is sharp right now as he drew four walks and struck out only once over four games while batting .250.
He had some loud outs in that span, too, driving two fly balls to the warning track.
Volpe brings much-needed speed to an otherwise lumbering New York order, as he stole a team-high 28 bases in 2024 and added one in Game 2 of the ALDS.
Guardians vs Yankees series best bet
Pick: Anthony Volpe 2+ stolen bases (+330 at FanDuel)
Volpe went 9-for-22 vs. the Guardians during the regular season and stole five bases against Cleveland pitching.
The Guardians allowed the third-fewest stolen bases this season but did allow Parker Meadows to swipe two bags in Game 5 of the ALDS. Perhaps Volpe can pick up on something that Meadows did and apply it in the ALCS.
I believe Volpe will have his fair share of chances to steal as he appears to be getting hot at the right time.
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