Happy MLB Trade Deadline Day!
This may be a fun day for baseball fans, with rumors aplenty and big (and little) names swapping jerseys, but it's a tricky time for those betting on MLB odds as lineups are often delayed — and sometimes outright redone in the wake of a deal just ahead of 6 p.m. ET.
That said, I've still found some interesting values if you're betting FanDuel Sportsbook's Dinger Tuesday promotion. How it works, is you place one $25 bet on a player to hit a home run every Tuesday... and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game — regardless of who hits 'em.
In addition to the roster uncertainty, Ballpark Pal's Park Factors also have just three stadiums with notable upgrades for home runs today — but one matchup features the power-deprived Oakland A's and another involves Spencer Strider. So I'm going back to good ol' Coors Field, as well as fading two homer-prone starters, in my matchups to target for MLB home run odds.
I'll try to break down the pitcher/hitter matchups and give the best MLB player props and values based on FanDuel's odds — while not getting traded myself — with my best Dinger Tuesday plays for August 1.
Best home run odds and props for FanDuel Dinger Tuesday
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies (Coors Field, 8:40 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pedro Avila* |
2.10 | 19.7 | 36.1 | N/A |
 Peter Lambert |
1.79 | 16.7 | 40.3 | 10.4 |
*AAA statistics
Pedro Avila has thrown five innings for the San Diego Padres this year, across two July relief appearances, and he'll be tabbed to start the game today. The righty's numbers in AAA, however, are ugly: he has an 8.57 ERA with 13 HR in 55 2/3 innings and nearly 20% of his fly balls leave the yard. He mostly runs with a a fastball/changeup combo, but does mix in a curveball and slider, although his minor-league struggles do not inspire confidence at Coors Field.
Lambert has been on a nice run as of late, going three straight starts (14 IP) without allowing a dinger. But those matchups came against HR-inept Miami, Washington, and Detroit (30th, 27th, and 22nd in HR vs. RHP last month) and in his 25 2/3 previous innings (mostly as a reliever or opener for the Colorado Rockies) he surrendered nine home runs — plus he's facing a Padres offense that was T-5th in HR vs. righties in July.
Hitters to target - Padres
- Manny Machado, RH (+285) - Hit a scorching .338 off righties in July, with nine home runs and a 47.5% FB rate.
- Xander Bogaerts, RH (+600) - Hit .300 with three homers vs. RHP in July, along with a 36.2% FB rate.
- Ha-Seong Kim, RH (+600) - Finished July strong with a .333 average, 44.1% fly-ball rate, and three HR vs. RHP last two weeks.
- Juan Soto, LH (+340) - Also hit three HR off righties over his last two weeks, with a .324 average and 38.5% fly-ball rate.
- Gary Sanchez, RH (+285) - Not much contact, but a 54.2% FB rate and three homers in last nine games vs. RHP.
Hitters to target - Rockies
- Ryan McMahon, LH (+480) - Hitting .342 with three home runs off righties over last two weeks.
- Elehuris Montero, RH (+520) - In three games since being recalled, hitting .400 with a HR and 33.3% FB rate off RHP.
- Michael Toglia, SH (+560) - Has a 50% FB rate with two homers off righties over last two weeks.
- Nolan Jones, LH (+500) - Contact is lacking right now, but has big-time power and a 47.8% fly-ball rate off righties in July.
Best betting value: Juan Soto (+340)
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners (T-Mobile Park, 9:40 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brayan Bello |
1.31 | 15.9 | 30.3 | 7.9 |
 Bryce Miller |
1.32 | 11.2 | 47.1 | 11.0 |
Bello has given up seven home runs in his last four outings (including five against the As and Cubs) and, aside from a six-start hot streak in June, the Boston Red Sox righty has allowed at least one long ball in 10 of 11 starts as he faces a Seattle Mariners team that hit the second-most homers against RHP in July.
Miller has also been coughing up long balls lately for the Seattle Mariners, with his last start seeing him give up four dingers to the Twins, and he's allowed a HR in seven of his last nine outings — plus the M's bullpen is a little taxed after using five of its top relievers yesterday and trading away Paul Sewald.
Hitters to target - Red Sox
- Triston Casas, LH (+340) - Red-hot vs. RHP over the last two weeks, hitting .441 with six HR and a 50% fly-ball rate.
- Rafael Devers, LH (+320) - Hitting .296 with four home runs vs. RHP in July, with a 39.1% fly-ball rate.
- Adam Duvall, RH (+420) - Four HR off righties in July, with a .310 average and 42.9% FB rate, plus homers in two of last four starts.
- Justin Turner, RH (+520) - Hit .324 with four HR and 44.8% FB rate vs. RHP last month (but left yesterday's game with an injury).
Hitters to target - Mariners
- Eugenio Suarez, RH (+420) - Hit six HR off righties in July, with a 55.8% fly-ball rate.
- Cal Raleigh, RH (+390) - Hit two homers last night, has five HR (with a .282 average and 58.3% FB rate) vs. RHP in last two weeks.
- Julio Rodriguez, RH (+520) - Hit .286 with four homers and a 30.9% fly-ball rate off righties last month.
- Mike Ford, LH (+600) - Five homers, 40% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage in July.
Best betting value: Adam Duvall (+420)
Last week's recap:
- NYM at NYY: Three HR
- ATL at BOS: One HR
- Game with most HR: SEA/MIN (Five HR)
Not intended for use in MA.
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