Another Friday, and another chance to try and cash in on BetMGM's Grand Slam Jackpot.
Picking guys to go yard has never been more profitable. All you have to do is place a wager of $10 or more on a player to hit a home run on Friday through Sunday, and you’ll win a share of a $50,000 bonus bet jackpot if he hits a grand slam that day.
It’s an especially sweet deal since BetMGM already has some of the best MLB player prop odds for homers in the industry.
There's some strategy involved for maximizing your chances of correctly betting a grand salami, so to prep you for each weekend of action I'll break down my best picks for Friday... along with the best pitchers/players to target, ahead of Saturday and Sunday play.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot picks for tonight
Jake Burger, Miami Marlins (+300 at BetMGM)
Nobody has hit more long balls over the past two weeks than Jake Burger of the Miami Marlins eight dingers. He failed to go yard Wednesday against the Phillies, breaking a streak of homers in four straight games.
He has now hit a home run in six straight series, and he’s onto New York to face a Mets team that is second in the majors in grand slams allowed this season with six.
Burger will square off with New York Mets lefty Sean Manaea, who has given up 12 home runs on the season, including five in the last six games. It’s only a small sample, but Burger already has success against Manaea, hitting .400 in five at-bats, including a home run.
Of Burger’s 23 home runs, 13 have come in visitor parks, and his road batting average is his better split at .279.
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (+210 at BetMGM)
There’s a nice coalescing of factors on Friday when the Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals.
Kyle Schwarber is currently 10th in the bigs with 28 homers, and he’s gone yard six times in the last 15 days, tied for the fourth most in baseball.
He draws a matchup with lefty Patrick Corbin, who has been laboring through this year with a 2-12 mark and 19 home runs surrendered on the season, a Top 20 number in baseball.
Corbin has been taken yard in each of his last three starts, so a trip to one of the most home run-friendly parks in baseball isn’t exactly great timing for him.
Despite the lefty-on-lefty matchup, Schwarber has held his own against Corbin, hitting .333 in 18 at-bats with a pair of home runs and eight RBI.
He did just launch his eighth career salami last time out against the Marlins.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Saturday preview
Orange you glad
Picking players on the Baltimore Orioles, the team leading the league in home runs, shouldn’t be a bad play when trying to pick a grand-slam hitter, especially when they face off against Brayan Bello of the Boston Red Sox.
Bello’s last outing was homer-free, breaking a string of six straight outings where he was taken yard. But he’s struggled in night outings this season with a 5.35 ERA while allowing 11 home runs.
Baltimore leads baseball with 93 home runs at home and the Red Sox are tied for the second-most grand slams surrendered this season with six.
Possible picks: Anthony Santander > Gunnar Henderson > Jordan Westburg
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Sunday preview
Fit for a Queen City
Great American Ball Park has been great for home runs, as it’s yielded an MLB-best 127 dingers so far in 2024. That probably isn’t great news for Cincinnati Reds starter Andrew Abbott, who has given up 24 dingers on the season, tied for third-most in the majors. He’s been tagged for eight homers in his last six starts overall and has been taken yard seven times in his last seven home starts.
The Kansas City Royals rank in the bottom half of the league in home runs hit for the year, but over the last two weeks they’re just outside the Top 10. The Royals have mashed a pair of grand slams this season, while the Reds have surrendered six.
Possible picks: Bobby Witt Jr. > Salvador Perez > Vinnie Pasquantino
Key considerations for betting on a grand slam
Grand slams aren't frequent, but if you want to maximize your chance of your bet being the biggest of big flies, here are some statistics to consider:
- From the start of the 2022 season through July 2024, the highest percentage of all plate appearances with the bases loaded was the No. 6 spot (13.54%), followed by the No. 7 hitter (11.63%). The cleanup spot is third at 10.94%, just barely ahead of the No. 5 spot (10.79%).
- The No. 3 spot — traditionally a team's best hitter — unsurprisingly has the best home run rate with the bases loaded (3.93%, just ahead of Nos. 2, 4, and 5), but the three-hole actually has the third-fewest PAs with the bases loaded in that span — while the bottom of the order (Nos. 8/9) have two of the three worst HR rates of all lineup spots.
- The only spots with fewer grand slam chances than No. 3? That would be the leadoff hitter and No. 2 spot, both of which had less than 10% of all bases-loaded PAs.
What's the takeaway? The No. 3 hitter is often your best chance of a home run, but betting on hitters in the 4-7 spot in the order is likely your best shot of getting an at-bat with the bases loaded.
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