It might be the end of the work week, but it’s the start of BetMGM's Grand Slam Jackpot!
There’s not much to it. All you have to do is place a wager of $10 or more on a player to hit a home run on Friday through Sunday, and you’ll win a share of a $50,000 bonus bet jackpot if he hits a grand slam that day.
It’s an especially sweet deal since BetMGM already has some of the best MLB player prop odds for homers in the industry.
There's some strategy involved for maximizing your chances of correctly betting a grand salami, so to prep you for each weekend of action I'll break down my best picks for Friday... along with the best pitchers/players to target, ahead of Saturday and Sunday play.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot picks for tonight
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets (+340 at BetMGM)
Francisco Lindor is now up to 28 home runs on the season, and his five dingers over the last 15 days are tied for the fourth-most in the majors.
The New York Mets shortstop has hit long balls in four of his last five series, and he’ll get to face struggling Chicago White Sox pitcher Jonathan Cannon, who’s been named the losing pitcher in three straight outings. Cannon has also served up home runs in five of his last six starts, and Guaranteed Rate Field ranks in the top half of home runs allowed.
The switch-hitting Lindor is batting .270 against righties with 17 home runs, and he performs even better on the road, where his average is .282. Lindor boasts seven career grand slams over his 10-year career, with his latest coming against San Diego just last weekend.
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (+260 at BetMGM)
Seriously, is there ever a bad time to pick Aaron Judge for a home run prop bet? The major league leader in home runs (51) has been on a tear over the past two weeks, going yard eight times in 12 games for the New York Yankees.
On Friday, Judge draws St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Erick Fedde in interleague play. The 31-year-old has had his troubles since being dealt from the White Sox, going 1-3 in his last five starts.
Fedde has been getting taken deep as well, allowing home runs five times in his last five starts and eight times in his last seven appearances overall. Judge is hitting .415 in August with a .927 slugging percentage, and welcomes Fedde to Yankee Stadium — a park that’s yielded the second-most homers in the Majors.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Saturday preview
Stone Cold Disaster
Los Angeles Dodgers starter Gavin Stone has been serving up the long ball at a pretty steady rate this season. The right-hander has been taken yard in eight of his last nine starts, surrendering 10 homers since July 1.
On Saturday, he will face the Arizona Diamondbacks for the third time this year, a team that ranks eighth in home runs hit and second overall in the last 30 days, boasting 45 jacks in that span.
Stone has succumbed to the long ball in each of his two performances against the D-backs, surrendering four earned runs in each. Arizona also happens to lead the MLB in grand slams this year with 10.
Possible picks: Ketel Marte > Christian Walker > Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Sunday preview
Home of the Braves
Although Aaron Nola enters the weekend with a 3.30 ERA, he's given up a whopping 23 homers on the year. The Philadelphia Phillies right-hander has drawn a clean sheet just four times in his last 14 starts, giving up a total of 12 dingers.
On Sunday, he faces the Atlanta Braves, a Top-4 team in home runs this season and the major league leader over the last 30 days with 47. Atlanta has teed off on Nola in three starts this year, drilling five homers and tagging him for 11 earned runs in 17 innings.
The Braves have three slams this season and will get a chance to make it four at Citizens Bank, a park that has yielded the sixth-most homers this season.
Possible picks: Marcell Ozuna > Adam Duvall > Matt Olson
Key considerations for betting on a grand slam
Grand slams aren't frequent, but if you want to maximize your chance of your bet being the biggest of big flies, here are some statistics to consider:
- From the start of the 2022 season through July 2024, the highest percentage of all plate appearances with the bases loaded was the No. 6 spot (13.54%), followed by the No. 7 hitter (11.63%). The cleanup spot is third at 10.94%, just barely ahead of the No. 5 spot (10.79%).
- The No. 3 spot — traditionally a team's best hitter — unsurprisingly has the best home run rate with the bases loaded (3.93%, just ahead of Nos. 2, 4, and 5), but the three-hole actually has the third-fewest PAs with the bases loaded in that span — while the bottom of the order (Nos. 8/9) have two of the three worst HR rates of all lineup spots.
- The only spots with fewer grand slam chances than No. 3? That would be the leadoff hitter and No. 2 spot, both of which had less than 10% of all bases-loaded PAs.
What's the takeaway? The No. 3 hitter is often your best chance of a home run, but betting on hitters in the 4-7 spot in the order is likely your best shot of getting an at-bat with the bases loaded.
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