Welcome to Dinger Tuesday: Trade Deadline edition, where our favorite day to bet MLB player props for homers is muddied by several teams sitting on the precipice of selling key players, rendering them ineffective for usage tonight.
I've weeded out potential players (and teams) that could be subtracting pieces, which leaves me in a true "New York State of Mind."
Read on to see why I'm targeting both the Mets and Yankees contests — best player values — for Dinger Tuesday tonight, July 30.
(And if you're new to Dinger Tuesday, it's FanDuel's weekly home run promotion where, for two different games, you can place a $25 bet on a player to hit a home run and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game... regardless of who hits 'em).
Best home run props and odds for FanDuel Dinger Tuesday
New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies (Citizens Bank Park, 6:40 p.m. ET)
(All stats last 30 days)
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% |
|---|---|---|---|
 Gerrit Cole (RHP) |
1.7 | 15.6 | 42.1 |
 Aaron Nola (RHP) |
1.6 | 18.2 | 36.1 |
Cole has limited the HR damage against teams not called the New York Mets, but he still has allowed at least one dinger in three of his last four outings and faces a Phillies team that sits 10th in the majors in home runs over the last 30 days — and the Yankees' righty is supported by one of the league's most hittable bullpens.
On the other side, Nola has allowed a long ball in six of his last eight starts, with lefties hitting him much harder than same-side platoons.
Yesterday's game saw seven homers and with warm temperatures expected and winds around 15 mph blowing out to dead center, it's great conditions for another barrage.
Hitters to target - Yankees
* = best price available
- *Aaron Judge, RH (+210)
Does this need an explanation? MLB HR leader has gone yard in three of his last four games, including two yesterday. - *Juan Soto, LH (+285)
Six multi-hit games in his last 10, hitting .429 with four HR and 38% FB rate in that span. - *Austin Wells, LH (+470)
Hits in six straight starts (also with a .429 average), with two HR and 35% flyball rate. - Jazz Chisholm, LH (+420)
Is 3-for-8 with two HR (albeit the second was iffy) since joining NYY, and hits in five of the last six overall.
Hitters to target - Phillies
- *Trea Turner, RH (+400)
Hitting .316 with a team-high 10 HR over the last 30 days, along with a 42% FB rate. - *Bryce Harper, LH (+360)
Team-leading 49% flyball rate vs. RHP L30, with four HR. - *Kyle Schwarber, LH (+240)
Has homered in two of his last three games and is 7-for-16 over his last five contests. - J.T. Realmuto, RH (+470)
Is 11-for-20 in his career vs. Cole, with one HR and a 1.250 OPS.
Pick: Juan Soto (+285 at FanDuel)
FanDuel Dinger Tuesday
Place a wager of $25 or more on a player to hit a home run bet, get $5 for every homer hit in that game — available for two different games!
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Minnesota Twins at New York Mets (Citi Field, 7:10 p.m. ET)
(All stats last 30 days)
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% |
|---|---|---|---|
 David Festa (RHP) |
3.9 | 26.7 | 55.6 |
 Sean Manaea (LHP) |
1.5 | 14.3 | 41.2 |
Keeping pace with the Yankees, the Mets are eighth in HR against righties over the last month, and face struggling Twins rookie Festa — who has made three career MLB appearances (14 1/3 IP) and surrendered five home runs.
The Twins can also still contribute to the dingers as well though against Manaea, who has also coughed up five dingers in his last three outings, especially with higher humidity and winds around 20 mph blowing out to left field.
Hitters to target - Twins
- Royce Lewis, RH (+360)
Dangerous when healthy (AB/HR is better than Judge), and hitting .388 with a 46% FB rate off LHP this year. - Byron Buxton, RH (+285)
47% flyball rate last two weeks, with a team-high three HR. - *Carlos Santana, SH (+600)
50% FB rate overall during the last two weeks, hitting .320 with one HR vs. LHP over the last 30 days.
Hitters to target - Mets
- *Francisco Lindor, SH (+440)
Team-leading five HR in last two weeks, hitting .345 with a 50% FB rate vs. RHP in that span. - Pete Alonso, RH (+350)
Hitting .355 with three HR off righties L14 days, has homered in consecutive games entering tonight. - *Jeff McNeil, LH (+900)
Has a 63% FB rate against RHP in the last two weeks, with three HR and a .367 average. - J.D. Martinez, RH (+440)
Hitting .286 with one HR and a 43% FB rate vs. RHP over last 14 days.
Pick: Francisco Lindor (+440 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
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